When it comes to how allies or potential allies view the United States, the main problem is the American electorate. George W. Bush was a transparent nincompoop and no one overseas needed binoculars to understand this. His presidency could perhaps be written off as a bad aberration–something never to be repeated. And Barack Obama spent eight years trying to give the world that impression. But it was mostly for naught, because the voters responded to the most ethical administration in modern history by hiring a charlatan and a crook. Not only that, but he’s a pawn of Russia.
So, the problem is not so much what Trump does or doesn’t do in office as it is the lack of confidence the world has that we won’t elect a downright moron in four or eight or twelve years. To restore confidence in American leadership, we will have to elect a steady string of solid presidents over a couple of decades.
But the world doesn’t have twenty years to wait for dependable leadership from a superpower. Stars will align among more dependable benefactors whether they’re benevolent or not. For much of the rest, the “Free” world will muddle through trying to fill the vacuum our idiot voters created.
What’s particularly annoying about this for me is that even at our best, our establishment was doing a crap job of leading the world. Perhaps they did so much of a crap job domestically that the voters lost their minds. But, in spite of this possibility, the voters deserve the blame here. You can’t look at a person like George W. or Donald Trump and think they’ll be a decent or even minimally acceptable leader, and yet that’s what the voters (and/or the Electoral College) decided three separate times in the last five elections.
Muddle through you say? Not sure about that at the rate this ass is tearing it all down. He has betrayed the Kurds and given Russia sway over Syria and the ME with Iran. He is now working on Ukraine and no one seems willing to step in. American leadership in the world is fast slipping. There is no one willing or able to replace us. Isolation is not a good look.
And at home we can’t even agree on a reasonable health care or ensure an education for our citizens.. A few economists tell us the elite pay less as a percent of income in total taxes than the rest of us when state and local taxes are added in. It is as if governing for the people is simply too hard and beyond us. A sort of perverted legal and justice system and a partisan log jam has descended upon us. It is not evident our constitution is helpful when the supreme court simply stamps approval on right wing agenda. What is it the House is supposed to do now when the President decides how money is spent or not.. Ugh!!
Ultimately this is indeed the problem, even if it cannot be spoken aloud by a single elected official, pundit or even public intellectual (to the extent such a thing exists any longer). But the rest of the world need not have such reticence, and it is quite clear that the American electorate (particularly its white component) has utterly failed, and can never be relied upon again. The old saw of the unctuous pol regarding prez elections–that “the American people will get it right!”—is dead as dead can be.
The blame can be placed on the electorate even for the failed constitution, since the nation watched as the Constitution (and Supreme Court) failed spectacularly during the Stolen Election of 2000—yet we as a nation shrugged and went back to shopping and sports saturation. “Conservatives”, of course, quickly figured out that democracy was not their friend and never would be again, but where were the Dems and independents? Letting it slide. And then electing the incompetent warmongers Bush/Cheney legitimately!
So yes, not only can we never live down the “election” of Der Trumper and the rise of National Trumpalism, there’s an excellent chance that it will be repeated again–indefinitely. Obviously there are others richly meriting blame—St Reagan’s abusive billionaire class (and the Rightwing Noise Machine they created), the coaches of Team Conservative, and the “conservative” activists masquerading as “justices” (2000-present) all have had their hand in the failure of the nation. But the buck ultimately has to stop with the failed citizenry.
As for the rest of the world “muddling through”, the now-melting permafrost across the globe probably makes that highly unlikely. And the failure of the American citizenry to figure that one out is the greatest indictment against them…Apres moi, le deluge!
Kind of a chicken and egg problem to me. If the powers that be feed the electorate bullshit for long enough (through decades of poor education, bad policies, right-wing noise and memes) then sooner or later the electorate starts to make bullshit decisions. Garbage in/garbage out, with the output funneled back to the input and amplified.
If it wasn’t for the million or so people who died because Bush had to have his war, and if it weren’t for the people dying now because Trump’s an idiot and a fucking dickhead, I would blithely say we have the leadership we deserve. We are a nation of morons. We have no business leading the world when we can’t lead ourselves out of a paper bag.
On a positive note, had a chance to review ACA policies this morning and my plan is coming down in cost from 2019. Not by much. I think my family of three saves $6 a month. But it means that even with everything Trump did to cause a death spiral, he did not succeed. I’m one of the folks who pays full rate. My wife and I are both self employed professionals. We’re paying almost $1,900 a month for our family of three. But our son has type one diabetes and there’s no question we need the best policy we can find. Even if he didn’t have this condition, we would insure ourselves the same way. Had Trump not sabotaged, I’m guessing our rates would be at least 20% lower. But I’m so grateful that the ACA exists. Some courageous Democrats took a very hard vote. Many lost their seat over it. Had it not existed, my son would be uninsurable and we’d either be bankrupt or in danger of losing everything we’ve worked a lifetime to save. Worse still, our son’s health would be endangered far beyond the background danger of having a chronic health condition. Bad things can still happen but at least it won’t be for lack of adequate coverage.
I think that historians of foreign affairs/international relations will look back on these two presidencies (W. Bush & Trump) as the end of American global hegemony: Bush by his fatally and criminally wrong response to 9/11 (in which he played into al-Qaeda’s hands by overreacting, just as they had hoped he would); and Trump by…well…any number of decisions he’s made (North Korea, China, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, etc.).
Students of republics and constitutions will then point to the flaws in the ossified U.S. Constitution, and in particular, the electoral college which produced—twice in five elections—presidents who lost the popular vote.
So, say good-bye to American global hegemony (and hello to an anarchic multi-polar world in which authoritarians hold increasing sway).
What remains an open question is whether we Americans can retain/restore a multiracial, democratic federal government. To do so, we’ll need to democratically seize power away from the Republican party (as presently constituted) not just in the White House and the Congress, but also in the federal courts and the states.
You seem to believe that the voters are the ones who decide. I don’t really believe that. I believe that voters are led by elites (which can take many different forms, including Fox News personalities and even progressive bloggers). To me, the real question is: how did the conservative elites get so incompetent, that they can’t even run the country for their own benefit? I don’t have a good answer, but it seems to me that the story goes all the way back to an overreaction to the 60s, which led to the 1971 Powell Memorandum, which led to the co-option of the government by lobbyists in the 70s and 80s (detailed in Zero Sum Politics), which led to an attempt to use the country’s longstanding regional and racial divides to prevent class consciousness (Fox News, Rush Limbaugh), which led to a generation of conservative leaders whose brains were marinated in that dreck from childhood and believe their own BS.
Thanks for your comment. I’d suggest it goes back further: to the decision by Republicans to welcome segregationists into their party. The 1964 Republican national convention in San Francisco is as good a marking point as any.
I note that this discussion hasn’t addressed one of the biggest problems we face as a nation – that fact that the “KKKristians” are THRILLED with the decline of the USA and democracy.
As for our place in the world – I’ve said for the last two years that the best this country will ever be ended when Trump got “elected”. Trump has walked out on countless agreements we had as a nation, he has lied like a pig, and he has pissed on our allies. Everybody on the planet has gotten to watch and puke at the decline of a once great nation. NOBODY will EVER trust another U. S. President – not that we won’t elect some good people in the future, but because the “KKKristians” will rally behind the Devil’s cousin he he runs as a Republican and the whole world knows it.