My home state of Pennsylvania is well known for having a ‘T’ in the middle where most of the Republicans reside. Sometimes it is uncharitably referred to as Pennsyltucky. It’s still a fairly accurate representation of the political divide in the Keystone State but it doesn’t capture the real movement we’ve been seeing lately.
If you don’t look too closely, you’ll notice little more than the red counties getting redder and the blue counties getting bluer, but if you increase the magnification you’ll see that it’s more about people’s level of educational attainment. It’s not a development that is unique to Pennsylvania, and it is not necessarily a phenomenon that is captured by the screening methods traditionally utilized by pollsters– a point that Matt Yglesias is keen to point out in the context of Georgia.
That’s why you should be wary when you see a survey showing Trump getting thumped in Pennsylvania by Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Rather than gain too much comfort from the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll, I’d advise you to spend more time looking at what Pennsylvanians are saying about the president:
Asked the first word that enters their mind when they hear Trump’s name, the top response was “arrogant/pompous/jerk,” followed by “idiot/moron.” The third most-common response was a tie between “effective/accomplished,” “corrupt/criminal,” and “great/awesome/good.”
Overall, the poll says that six in ten people here would prefer that Trump not be reelected. Despite that, 45 percent would choose him over Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, and 43 percent would choose him over Joe Biden. The former two are not even winning outside of the margin of error in the survey.
And, again, these polls are quite possibly too optimistic for the Democrats. Trump never led in a reputable Pennsylvania poll in 2016 and nonetheless won the state.
Here’s what we’re up against. A different survey has been released by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and it shows that Republicans are fucking morons.
“When I hear [Trump] on Fox News — that’s where I get all my information,” said Al Corra, a 48-year-old Republican from Midland, Texas. Trump, he said, is the easiest way to cut through an otherwise confusing information environment.
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to put a great deal of trust in the president’s statements, 40% to 5%. Overall, a majority of Americans (61%) have little to no trust in information about the government when it comes from Trump,
Corra said he distrusts academics as too “liberal” and he’s not alone in that regard among Republicans. More Democrats than Republicans say they consider something to be factual if it’s been verified by scientists — 72% versus 40% — as well as academics — 57% versus 30%.
We have an endless supply of dipshits in this country, and Pennsylvania is no exception. This is the sole reason why Trump has a puncher’s chance of winning this state again in 2020. The Democrats will not break through until they go out in person and talk to people because the low information voter no longer trusts any news source or any authority, and a ton of them think Trump’s verbal diarrhea is as plausible as anything they might hear from the Surgeon General or NASA.
We’re probably too stupid as a species to live, but there’s an election to win so I can’t worry about that now.
The problem with state polls in 2016 was failure to control for education. Shouldn’t be a problem this time around. If he’s at 40% approval and getting 45%, I imagine remaining undecided go for his opponent on a 3-2 basis.
This is a reputable pollster and they properly controlled for education.
I’m still hung up on that Moody’s poll that says if the economy stays strong, Trump wins by a landslide, since its the economy stupid.
I have a hypothesis about reading and learning to read and educational attainment and voting Republican. Many children fail to learn to read in school. Their shame and frustration ends up as anger towards teachers, and school, and later on towards the public school system which failed them – which broadens to “the government”. Whenever Trump misspells a word or is suspected of not being able to read, Of the 32 million functionally illiterate adults in America, I wonder how many secretly feel a kinship with our distopian President? (I rage every time I see anyone mocking Trump’s grammatical and spelling errors.)
Trump can probably read. However, the evidence suggests he doesn’t wear glasses despite not being able to see. Educational attainment isn’t the most precise marker. If you compare educated white evangelicals, they still vote for Republicans in similar numbers to their non-college white evangelical brethren. But until we have a “database of everything with enough computing power”, it’s the best control we have. The “density divide” lays it out geographically, though.
I think this post deserves to be read side by side with today’s other post, “The Democrats Have Begun Their 100 Day Offensive”.
In both cases, there are simple answers, but no easy answers for Democrats looking for a path to victory. Do your homework, keep talking with people, keep listening to them, engage in the profoundly democratic practices of individual conversations, persuasion, question and answer, and understand there are no shortcuts that will work, and no cost-free path to victory.