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There Are Enough Idiots in Pennsylvania to Give Trump a Chance
Discussion
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The problem with state polls in 2016 was failure to control for education. Shouldn’t be a problem this time around. If he’s at 40% approval and getting 45%, I imagine remaining undecided go for his opponent on a 3-2 basis.
This is a reputable pollster and they properly controlled for education.
I’m still hung up on that Moody’s poll that says if the economy stays strong, Trump wins by a landslide, since its the economy stupid.
I have a hypothesis about reading and learning to read and educational attainment and voting Republican. Many children fail to learn to read in school. Their shame and frustration ends up as anger towards teachers, and school, and later on towards the public school system which failed them – which broadens to “the government”. Whenever Trump misspells a word or is suspected of not being able to read, Of the 32 million functionally illiterate adults in America, I wonder how many secretly feel a kinship with our distopian President? (I rage every time I see anyone mocking Trump’s grammatical and… Read more »
Trump can probably read. However, the evidence suggests he doesn’t wear glasses despite not being able to see. Educational attainment isn’t the most precise marker. If you compare educated white evangelicals, they still vote for Republicans in similar numbers to their non-college white evangelical brethren. But until we have a “database of everything with enough computing power”, it’s the best control we have. The “density divide” lays it out geographically, though.
I think this post deserves to be read side by side with today’s other post, “The Democrats Have Begun Their 100 Day Offensive”.
In both cases, there are simple answers, but no easy answers for Democrats looking for a path to victory. Do your homework, keep talking with people, keep listening to them, engage in the profoundly democratic practices of individual conversations, persuasion, question and answer, and understand there are no shortcuts that will work, and no cost-free path to victory.