If Trump is Acquitted, the House Democrats Should Press Ahead

This result cannot be allowed to stand since it eviscerates Congress’s power to hold a president accountable. Plus, the full story must be told.

In declaring that he won’t be voting to allow witness testimony in Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee made some interesting observations. First, he acknowledged that the House Democrats had proven that Trump “ask[ed] a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent and…with[held] United States aid to encourage that investigation.” Second, he said that this crime did not rise to a level requiring removal from office. Third, he said that Trump’s blanket noncooperation with the investigation wasn’t even close to being an impeachable offense. While it’s still possible that the Senate will deadlock at 50-50 on the witness question, forcing Chief Justice John Roberts to decide whether or not to break the tie, Alexander’s position probably spells the end of this sad saga in the Senate.

If so, the House Democrats will have some difficult choices to make. They could essentially move on and get back to the ordinary business of working on the budget and passing bills that Trump won’t sign. Or, they could decide to hold a trial of their own, with the potential to impeach Trump a second time before the November election.

If they make the latter decision, they will risk looking obsessed. But, given the stakes, they might feel they have no other choice. They will almost certainly want to hear from John Bolton, who is likely to cooperate this time around. They may also want to hear from Lev Parnas, assuming they can do so without screwing up his prosecution by the Department of Justice. They will also want to vindicate, if possible, their right to get witnesses and documents from the administration, so they’ll have to pursue a legal angle as well. Above all, they’ll want to make sure the full story is told so that people can fairly judge what the Senate did in refusing to look further into the matter themselves before acquitting the president.

For this purpose, they could set up a special committee to basically compile a full investigation unencumbered by time constraints. You could think of it as their own special investigator or prosecutor. Their mission would be to document everything for history in a final report, and the report could make recommendations for people who should be charged or even for new impeachment articles to be passed.

This report might not be complete before the November election, especially given the legal delays in getting resolution on witnesses and documents, but Trump could be impeached even in a second term and even if he is defeated. If he’s guilty, he should not be able to run for or hold high office again.

As time goes by, more information will come out through Freedom of Information Requests and people deciding to talk about what they know, as well as through victories in court. Trump’s acquittal will likely look worse and worse with each passing month and year, and the Senate’s behavior will suffer a similar fate.

This will benefit the Democrats politically, but more importantly, the House Democrats cannot allow this result to stand since it eviscerates Congress’s power to hold a president accountable. As an institution, they need to fight back. Unfortunately, this is something they should be obsessed about and they should be willing to take whatever hit comes along with that.

E.J. Dionne Wants to Know If We Can All Just Get Along

The columnist’s diagnosis is correct, but there’s little chance that Democratic voters will set aside their differences in the interest of winning.

I enjoyed reading E.J. Dionne’s call for progressive/moderate harmony. I generally agree with the points he makes, although I’m skeptical that people will heed his advice. I also don’t like the way there’s a kind of binary in his argument between Sanders/Warren and Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Bloomberg/Third Way.

I just don’t think Third Way is relevant enough anymore to serve as half of any two-sided argument, and I don’t think any of the candidates is really pushing their traditional line. In a way, that’s part of Dionne’s point. The 1990’s are gone. The pre-Trump era is gone. There really isn’t a realistic chance of having a successful restorative political movement. Whether you long for radical change or simple normalcy, whenever the Democratic Party next gets a chance to govern, it is going to have to approach things in new and novel ways. So, even a “moderate” candidate is probably going to attempt some pretty transformative things.

One thing I think should be obvious from the polls is that younger voters are not clamoring for restoration, moderation or normalcy. That doesn’t mean they won’t ultimately support a moderate candidate over Trump, but they’ll do so with a lot more enthusiasm if that moderate starts forcefully advocating for them.

Either way, populism isn’t popular if its not perceived to be in the people’s interests, or it seems to serve only other people and other communities. This is well understood when it comes to rural voters resenting policies that seem to be more generous to urban areas, but it’s true based on class, too. Free college doesn’t sell well with families that didn’t go to and have no intention of going to college. If the Democrats want to attract skeptics to their brand of populism, they need to spend more time making people understand that they’re on their side and understand their unique concerns and challenges.

Sanders can take this too far by suggesting that identity politics is a distraction and an albatross that kills the potential to win over white voters to a populist agenda. The answer isn’t to keep an arm’s distance from one’s one base, but to spend more time talking directly to skeptical white voters so that they know you are fighting just as hard for them. You have to make people believe that you’re on their side, and there’s no better way to do that than to loudly wage a battle on their behalf. The Democrats could never do this based on race, religion or identity, which means they must do it based on economic policy.

However you look at it, the Democrats that went over to Trump and the young voters who are rejecting Biden, both have no interest in going back in time or in tinkering around the edges. These groups are under economic stress and are going to listen to anyone who promises to pursue a radically aggressive agenda on their behalf. The successful candidate will be the one who convinces them they can deliver real change.

The additional challenge is twofold. A Democrat has to be responsive to real concerns from their base that risk muddying the “whose-side-are-you-one” question, and they also have to appeal to a huge swath of very comfortable (older) voters who don’t want more risk but rather five minutes to catch their breath after the chaos of Donald Trump.

It’s not possible to perfectly hit all these marks, but a candidate who clearly understands that populism can sell but must be simultaneously tempered and targeted will probably be able to win this election.

I think Dionne is trying to say the same thing, but he’s asking the Democratic voter to go along. And the Democratic voter is generally going to hate all of this either because it’s too tame or because it’s too aggressive.

Can John Roberts Break Ties in the Impeachment Trial?

Common sense suggests the Chief Justice is to serve the same purpose when he “presides” over the Senate as the vice-president does when he serves as its “president.”

When it comes to impeachment, the Constitution is frustratingly vague about what warrants conviction, but looking at Article I, Section III, it’s also unclear about whether or not the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is allowed to vote in the case of ties. Pay particular attention to the parts I have bolded.

The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided.

The Senate shall chuse their other Officers, and also a President pro tempore, in the Absence of the Vice President, or when he shall exercise the Office of President of the United States.

The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.

Here is what is unambiguous. Since each state was granted two senators, it was assured that a full Senate would always have an even number of members. This necessitated a mechanism for breaking a tie, and that power was assigned to the vice-president who is referred to as “the president” of the Senate. When the Senate is hearing an impeachment case for the president of the United States (but not impeachments of other officers), the Chief Justice is to “preside.” Presumably, this is primarily because the vice-president would stand to become president if there is a conviction and so would have a conflict of interest. There’s the added bonus that the Chief Justice isn’t an elected official and presumably can be impartial, lessening the chance that a presidential trial will be seen as a strictly partisan exercise.

Here is where things get complicated. The section does not specifically say that the Chief Justice can break ties, and ties may not have been contemplated at all since the requirement for conviction is a two-thirds majority. The possibility of procedural ties during the trial could have escaped the Framers’ imagination.

Yet, common sense would suggest that the Chief Justice is to serve the same purpose when he “presides” over the Senate as the vice-president does when he serves as its “president.” This is why I don’t really understand Senator Chris Murphy’s position here:

“I don’t want [Chief Justice John] Roberts voting. That to me is pretty clear that the Constitution specifically gives the power to the vice president to break ties, it’s silent on that matter in an impeachment trial. Which leads me to the opinion that he’s not supposed to vote,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

Sen. Murphy describes the Constitution accurately, but I don’t think he’s logically thought this through. Just based on the etymology, it’s clear that the person who “presides” over a meeting is the “president” of that body, and any confusion here is most likely based on nothing more than an editorial decision not to be repetitive back in 1787. When the Chief Justice “presides” over the Senate, he is serving as “the president” or “presider.”  It should be assumed that the language intended to confer all the same powers to the Chief Justice as were normally enjoyed by the vice-president. This obviously should have been made explicit, but since there are no ties in a two-thirds vote, this probably did not seem necessary.

This question could come to the fore on Friday in the votes on whether or not to call witnesses and end the trial. If three Republicans and all Democrats vote for witnesses, the chamber will be deadlocked at 50-50. The presumption is that a motion fails in a tie-vote. So, unless Roberts voted with the Democrats, no witnesses would be called.

There’s another reason to question Sen. Murphy’s opinion, and that’s based on precedent.

…during the impeachment trial of President Andrew Johnson, Chief Justice Salmon Chase did break ties, to great controversy.

Republicans and Democrats alike seem to think the Johnson precedent is telling. Chase voted twice during the Johnson impeachment trial when the Senate deadlocked on the issue of whether to retire to debate questions that had arisen during the proceedings. When Sens. Charles Sumner (R-Mass.) and Charles Drake (R-Mo.) raised objections to Chase’s actions, the Senate sustained the chief justice’s ability to vote. Chase declined to break a third tie.

In the one prior case we have to examine, not only did the Chief Justice break ties, but the Senate upheld his right to do so.

Now, the Senate could vote differently this time around. But that would come as a high cost in how the vote is perceived. Some wavering senators might be willing to vote against witnesses but not to vote to override John Roberts.

I have no idea what Roberts thinks about his role or what fairness demands in this trial, so I can’t predict what he might do. But I do think he has a logical right to cast tie-breaking votes. My hope is that there are enough Republican votes in favor of witnesses that Roberts won’t have to decide, but if he doesn’t cast a tie-breaking vote I’ll see that as shirking his duty.

Trump’s Geofencing Could Be a Potent Political Issue

If people understood how they’re being monitored and manipulated by political campaigns, there would be a significant backlash.

Donald Trump’s digital advantage may be freaking out Democratic strategists, but what should worry everyone is the technology itself. What makes Trump’s operation so formidable is not so much his investment in digital or any particular architecture that he’s built. It’s more that he’s able to take advantage of monitoring people through their cells phones.

To be clear, the Democrats can and will do the exact same thing. The problem isn’t the candidate but the capability.

Thomas Edsall discusses this in a piece for the New York Times. It begins with geofencing, a practice that involves tracking every cell phone that enters a predefined area, like a church or MAGA rally. Armed with these phone numbers, identities can be sussed out from other commercial databases, and then people can be sorted by how frequently they vote, their party registration (if any), and all manner of personal information:

If you attend an evangelical or a Catholic Church, a women’s rights march or a political rally of any kind, especially in a seriously contested state, the odds are that your cellphone ID number, home address, partisan affiliation and the identifying information of the people around you will be provided by geofencing marketers to campaigns, lobbyists and other interest groups…

…The data generally provides information about individual users’ day-to-day activities and preferences: Where they shop; What they do for fun; What other apps they use, for how long, and what they do in those apps; Where they live; Where they work; With whom they associate.

You might think that Donald Trump holds political rallies simply because he enjoys the adulation, but that’s not the real purpose. His campaign manager Brad Pascale recently boasted about the information he harvests from MAGA rallies:

Out of more than 20,000 identified voters who came to a recent Trump rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 57.9 percent did not have a history of voting for Republicans. Remarkably, 4,413 attendees didn’t even vote in the last election — a clear indication that President Trump is energizing Americans who were previously not engaged in politics…

…Nearly 22 percent of identified supporters at President Trump’s rally in Toledo, Ohio, were Democrats, and another 21 percent were independents. An astounding 15 percent of identified voters who saw the president speak in Battle Creek, Michigan, has not voted in any of the last four elections. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, just over 20 percent of identified voters at the rally were Democrats, and 18 percent were nonwhite.

It’s astonishing that the Trump campaign can so easily get this level of insight about the people who attend their rallies, but the Democratic candidates can do the same thing, and they really ought to be doing it if they want to compete on an even playing field.

You might think that you can just anonymously attend a church service or political rally, but that’s no longer true if you bring your cell phone. There are some steps you can take to make it more difficult to track your online activities or what apps you use, but they’re probably insufficient to safeguard your privacy. The campaigns will know where you’ve been and they’ll be able to target you with political advertising designed just for you.

Trump has been aggressively using this capability throughout his whole first term, which may help in part explain why he’s able to maintain such a high floor in his approval numbers. More importantly, he now has a big advantage over whomever winds up running against him in the general election.

The American people never meaningfully consented to this invasion of their privacy and I don’t think they like the idea of being tracked or being manipulated through targeted advertising. I think perhaps in the future, this could become a potent political issue, with voters rewarding candidates who promise to regulate this industry so that folks can go to church without the government watching.

Biden and Klobuchar Discussing Alliance in Iowa

Neither campaign wants to admit it, but there is nothing technically wrong or unethical about such agreements.

An alliance between Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden in the Iowa caucuses would make a lot of sense for both campaigns. If the polls are correct, Klobuchar is generally going to fall below the 15 percent needed for viability, and if Biden can bank her votes he will get a nice boost that could propel him into first place.

The benefit to Klobuchar would depend on her actually doing better than Biden in some caucuses. In those precincts, she could boost her numbers if Biden did not reach viability. In cases where neither reaches 15 percent in the initial vote, throwing support to the stronger candidate could help that candidate  reach viability.

Back in 2004, Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards worked out a similar agreement, and it is generally understood to have benefited Edwards to some degree. He wound up running a strong second ahead of Howard Dean who flamed out that night with his famous “Aaaaargh!” speech.

Of course, neither Klobuchar nor Biden wants to admit that they are considering this alliance. It comes across as somewhat sketchy and underhanded, although there is nothing technically wrong or unethical about such agreements. Presumably, the main victim in this scenario would be Pete Buttigieg since he is more likely to be a second choice for Klobuchar/Biden voters than either Sanders or Warren.

It also looks like Klobuchar is really the only candidate who is available for this kind of deal. All the other candidates are either vying to win or far too distant from viability to benefit from such an arrangement. So, it would be a coup for Biden to be the one to team up with her. She could just as easily strike a deal with Warren or Buttigieg, but Klobuchar has no interest in helping either of them as she needs they to flame out quickly if she’s going to emerge was the alternative to Biden and Sanders.

So, don’t believe the Biden and Klobuchar camps when they deny this alliance. I’m sure it will be in place, and it will be mutually beneficial.

Our Future Will Be Shaped By the Outcome of the Iowa Caucuses

There is no clear frontrunner in the race, but the final results will dramatically influence the media coverage of the campaign for the presidency.

It’s possible that the winner of next week’s Iowa caucuses will be the first choice of fewer than one in four Democrats. According the FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Bernie Sanders currently leads the pack with 22.6 percent. Their forecast has Sanders pulling in 27.9 percent, but that’s only after he receives some reassigned votes from candidates who don’t clear the 15 percent minimum threshold in some caucuses.

They project that four candidates will win delegates in the Hawkeye State. Biden is polling about even with Sanders at 22.3 percent, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 17.1 percent and Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent. Among the rest, only Amy Klobuchar is showing any pulse, but her 8 percent rating is far below the minimum threshold, and most of her votes will probably be reallocated.

So, as far as the delegates go, the projection is: Sanders 12.8, Biden 12.5, Buttigieg 8.5, and Warren 5.3.

Statistically, this would amount to a four-way tie. And, based on the difficulty of polling the Iowa caucuses and the traditional late volatility in these contests, it’s quite possible that the final order could be scrambled or even reversed. In 2012, Rick Santorum rocketed to the top in the last days from a position about as weak as what Klobuchar is showing now. So she shouldn’t be counted out.

Still, I think it’s safe to say that the media will portray a first place finish quite differently from a fourth place finish, even if only a few points separate the two candidates and there’s no significant difference in how many delegates they’re awarded. It’s easy to see why an endorsement from the Des Moines Register could be immensely valuable to Elizabeth Warren. It’s also very possible that Trump’s impeachment lawyers could change history by using their time less to defend the president than to attack Joe Biden.

The second day of the president’s opening arguments inthe impeachment trial took a sharp turn, when Trump attorneys Pam Bondi and Eric Herschmann spent a significant portion of their time on the Senate floor arguing that Biden should be investigated for corruption.

Bondi primarily focused on Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, and his role on the board of Ukrainian gas company Burisma while his father was vice president and in charge of Ukraine matters. Trump’s team has presented noevidence that Biden used his role as vice president to benefit his son nor alleged anything improper other than the “appearance of a conflict.”

But Senate Republicans used the concerted attack on Biden to raise questions about his political viability.

“Iowa caucuses are this next Monday evening and I’m really interested to see how this discussion today informs and influences the Iowa caucus voters, those Democratic caucus goers, will they be supporting vice president Biden at this point?” asked Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa).

Trump decided to use Ukraine to attack Biden at a time when Biden was clearly polling the best against him in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. It may be that the impeachment trial is doing what President Zelensky would not, and that is to unfairly tar Biden and knock him out of his frontrunner status.

Of course, I’m not sure that Iowa Democrats will react the way that the Republicans hope. They may rally around Biden precisely because he’s being attacked, or because it makes it look that Trump fears him the most. All I know, is that tiny differences in voter sentiment can have enormous consequences.

It shouldn’t be this way. The media should really do a better job of explaining how inconsequential it is to win 13 delegates for first place compared to 5 delegates for fourth. They should point out that no candidate who is preferred by only a quarter of caucus-goers can really be considered a frontrunner. And what does it really mean that a few thousand votes separate four candidates in a mostly white rural state? The results from Los Angeles County in California will have vastly more statistical significance, and they’ll come from a more representative cross-section of the Democratic Party.

Yet, we’ll all be on pins and needles waiting to see who the big winner and loser is in Iowa and everyone will talk about all the errors and misjudgments that were made and why the loser’s campaign was doomed from the start. It’s all foolishness.

And it’s not even guaranteed that the election night delegate winner will be awarded the most delegates. They might drop out later and see their delegates reassigned. They may see their delegates poached by a better organized candidate, as happened in 2012 when Ron Paul wound up with almost all of Iowa’s delegates despite coming in third on election night.

Yes, indeed, you would have never known it in all the hype leading up to Iowa, but their caucuses have “practically no effect” on who will get the delegates from the Hawkeye state at the Republican National Convention. In 2012, Iowa had 28 delegates at the convention, and according to the New York Times, Ron Paul got 22 of them, Romney got five, and Rick Santorum got zero. One vote is listed as undetermined but probably went for Romney.

Ron Paul achieved this by focusing on the real contest, which actually takes place later in the year at county and state party conventions. This is why it is entirely accurate to call the caucuses a “beauty contest” but horribly misleading to suggest that the voters who turn out to provide “Iowa’s Republican Party a sense of the voters’ thinking” have any efficacy whatsoever over who will represent them at the convention.

I find it frustrating that the future of the country could be dramatically altered depending on who is perceived to have won a beauty contest in Iowa. But that’s the situation we’re in, and the smallest of factors could have a tremendous impact on how the candidates finish next week.

Isn’t this system great?

There’s No Philosophy in Politics

There is no deep moral meaning to the acceptance of political endorsements by presidential candidates.

I’m a philosophy major who is predisposed against inflicting that world on innocent bystanders. I’m particularly skeptical of those who attempt to devise philosophical systems, e.g. dialectical materialism, and then graft them onto political movements or parties. If I can’t explain something to some Joe at the end of the bar within ten minutes, I think it’s basically useless as a political tool.

So, as a principled matter, I object to efforts to explain the differences between supporters of Bernie Sanders and supporters of, say, Barack Obama on the basis of their deontological vs. consequentialist moral philosophies. That doesn’t mean that I hold it against Dylan Matthews that he made the effort, but I suspect few people have enough prurient interest to risk witnessing that kind of wankfest.

The main problem here really is that it’s making something rather simple several orders of magnitude too complicated.

Some people are more willing than others to break a few eggs in the interest of making an omelette. Others don’t go in for fancy breakfast dishes and don’t have any eggs in any case. This is a question of where people are to begin with.

Are they desperate, marginalized, suffocating from discrimination and lack of opportunity? If so, they don’t have the luxury of talking about omelettes. Any major disturbance of the economy or the social order will hit them first and hardest. They’re only going to look to break things if their circumstances become unbearable, but they’re accustomed to living with severe hardship. Hardship and unfairness are not their primary motivators. They’re focused on survival and quite willing to make compromises. They’ve never known an existence when compromises weren’t forced on them, nor one where they got to dictate the terms.

If, on the other hand, they’ve lived a life of relative comfort and privilege, they may still be animated by a genuine concern for those who are less fortunate. They may be infused with a moral fervor to right injustices. And they may rightly perceive that there are institutional barriers to progress that are so strong that they must be smashed if meaningful improvements are going to be made. In an extreme case, they might justify lining kulaks up against a wall and shooting them so that a more egalitarian agrarian policy will be possible. These folks are not accustomed to making compromises. Their tolerance for hardship is limited, and they don’t have much experience with having to take a bad deal because it’s the best deal on offer.

When I worked at ACORN with inner city black organizers, I didn’t hear the same kinds of conversations that I heard growing up with faculty kids in Princeton, New Jersey. The main distinction could be summed up as the difference between pragmatism and idealism. ACORN looked to leverage a limited amount of power to achieve modest, incremental results. Ivy Leaguers looked to examine root causes and find systemic solutions.

There are, of course, many people who don’t fit into either of these categories. They are neither part of a socioeconomic or racial underclass, nor the children of the elite. They may come at the pragmatism vs. idealism question more as a matter of temperament than experience. Depending on their inherent disposition, they may sort into either camp. And it’s likely that if you examine their moral preferences and try to stuff them into categories of moral philosophy that you will find that one tends towards the deontological and the other into the consequentialist. Personally, I don’t find that exercise very illuminating.

In this case, I think it led Matthews a bit astray. Supporters of Bernie Sanders don’t necessarily care that he’s accepted the endorsement of Joe Rogan. But this is not primarily because they’re more focused on the greater good of winning an election than the hurt feelings of the people Rogan regularly insults. It’s because they don’t have direct experience with being on the receiving end of that kind of vitriol and abuse. In this case, they’re being practical while their critics are being idealistic. That’s a reversal from the general pattern of Sanders’ support. But the constant is that Sanders’ supporters are insulated from the consequences of their actions.

They will casually wave away the careers of thousands of people working in the medical insurance industry just as breezily as they dismiss the feelings of a transgender person who has been insulted by Mr. Rogan. In the interest of the greater good, some people will get hurt.

This isn’t a foreign concept to pragmatists. Martin Luther King Jr. knew that people would get hurt when he led them into the streets. Barack Obama knew that some politicians would lose their jobs if they voted to enact his health care plan. But they crafted their plans carefully and with an eye to taking only smart and necessary risks. And those risks most definitely included  making alliances with people of suspect moral or ideological rectitude. What defined them was a willingness to grab progress in small chunks and to take care that the people they sought to represent would not be unduly harmed in the process.

This wasn’t because they were morally confused about whether it was acceptable to judge actions by their intent or their consequences. They would not have rejected progress because it required compromise nor accepted any cost in the furtherance of their goals. They were guided by the experience of being on the receiving end of discrimination and injustice, and this is why they didn’t feel they had the luxury of being absolutists.

The average Sanders supporter is similarly flexible in their ethics. They can be very practical in the furtherance of helping their champion secure the nomination. The difference is mainly in what they’re willing to compromise and how much risk they’re willing to take on. Generally speaking, they’re generous taking risks that will have negative consequences for other people. In this respect, Barack Obama was miserly.

So, I suppose, on the whole, the typical Sanders supporter is more of a consequentialist than a deontologicalist. But the distinction is still highly situational and generally not rooted in moral philosophy.

Now, at the heart of this debate is the question of accepting endorsements. Barack Obama was happy to be endorsed by Colin Powell, while Clinton accepted a thumbs up from Henry Kissinger. Aren’t these blood-stained endorsements more problematic than the endorsement of some dude with a podcast and some unpopular opinions?

The simplest way of thinking about this is that there’s really no distinction here at all. We have three politicians acting in exactly the same way for exactly the same reasons. And, in all three cases, we will find that supporters of these politicians made similar excuses for their candidates. There is something valuable to be gained from the endorsement that outweighs whatever moral taint comes with it.

If you want a more complex version, each endorsement was made for its own unique reason and had its own story to tell about the political movement it was promoting. Powell had reasons for preferring Obama to McCain that involved both policy and identity. Kissinger saw in Clinton a better steward of traditional American foreign policy than the erratic nonsense that was coming from Trump. Joe Rogan says he likes Bernie Sanders’ moral consistency over his long career. Presumably, he sees this as a positive attribute that contrasts with the average poll-tested politician. If he has any policy differences with Bernie, they’re evidently outweighed by his admiration for the constancy of his character.

When looked at in these terms, it’s not clear that we should be so focused on the morality of the one receiving the endorsement as the rationale behind the decision to offer it.

I don’t give a shit what Powell, Kissinger or Rogan think about anything, and I wouldn’t take advice from them, moral or otherwise. But their endorsements can still inform us. Powell had seen what neoconservatism could do firsthand, and he thought Obama’s approach was better than McCain’s. Kissinger didn’t endorse Clinton because she agreed with the bombing of Cambodia or Operation Condor. He endorsed her because Trump is a lunatic. Rogan didn’t endorse Sanders because he’s transphobic or racist but apparently because he’s principled and unwavering.

In each case, the candidate could have decided to reject the endorsement for principled reasons. In no case did that actually happen.

This tells us that neither Clinton nor Obama were so morally outraged by the record of Kissinger or Powell to run fleeing from them. That probably was a strong indicator that they wouldn’t break too strongly from the bipartisan foreign policy consensus of the country. Likewise, Sanders is never going to care more about the eggs than the omelette.

I think we can learn from this without thinking too hard about it. If you want careful, considered pragmatism then you’ll lean one way, and if you want to rip everything up without a lot of concern for short-term consequences, then you’ll lean another way.

What you probably should be looking for is someone who can’t be pigeon-holed into either category. You shouldn’t want a moral philosopher but someone with real moral courage. Martin Luther King Jr. was pragmatic and revolutionary, unwavering yet flexible. But he was also unconstrained by electoral politics. The ideal party leader will not fret over whether their decisions are means or ends-focused, but will move forward with the knowledge that they’ve been entrusted with the eggs. They should break as few of them as possible, but not become paralyzed or indecisive in the face of tough decisions.

Will the Republicans Allow John Bolton to Testify?

They’re trying to protect a guilty person whose crimes are not well-hidden, so they have an incentive to just get things over with as fast as possible.

My instinct is not to trust John Bolton. Yet, I also figure he’s probably not eager to perjure himself, even if telling the truth to Congress might help the Democrats and ruin his future influence and prospects on the right. Of course, we’ve been here before with untrustworthy characters like James Comey, Rick Gates and Michael Cohen. I think we can put Lev Parnas in this category too. I knew that if Bolton were to testify, there was a good chance that he’d spill the beans on Trump.

It has never been clear precisely why Bolton left the administration. We still don’t know if he was fired or he resigned, and we’re not sure if the decision was based on something very specific or was of a more cumulative nature. There were reports that it was related to Iran, but the timing makes it seem like it could have been centered around Ukraine. Either way, by Trump’s own account, we know that he did not leave on good terms.

It has also been reported that Bolton is publishing a book about his time serving as Trump’s national security adviser, and that the book would not be flattering to the president. On the other hand, his refusal to testify before the House impeachment inquiry suggested that he wasn’t eager to lend a hand in ousting Trump from office. Some said this was because no one would buy his book if they already knew the worst of what it contained.

Despite all these unanswered questions, the Democrats have been eager to secure Bolton’s testimony at the Senate trial. This became more realistic when Bolton declared his willingness to participate. But, with the prospect of him being called narrowing as the Republican senators coalesce around a sham trial strategy, suddenly we can read about what is in Bolton’s book in the pages of the New York Times:

President Trump told his national security adviser in August that he wanted to continue freezing $391 million in security assistance to Ukraine until officials there helped with investigations into Democrats including the Bidens, according to an unpublished manuscript by the former adviser, John R. Bolton.

The president’s statement as described by Mr. Bolton could undercut a key element of his impeachment defense: that the holdup in aid was separate from Mr. Trump’s requests that Ukraine announce investigations into his perceived enemies, including former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and his son Hunter Biden, who had worked for a Ukrainian energy firm while his father was in office.

Mr. Bolton’s explosive account of the matter at the center of Mr. Trump’s impeachment trial, the third in American history, was included in drafts of a manuscript he has circulated in recent weeks to close associates.

This puts the Republicans in a bind. The American people can consider this evidence even if it isn’t admitted at the trial. They know the senators have seen it, so they will expect the senators to weigh it when they decide whether to acquit or convict. If it is to be rebutted in some way, it won’t be convincing if Bolton’s testimony is blocked.

Yet, if they allow Bolton to testify, it will blow up their schedule and open a potential Pandora’s box. It will also infuriate the president.

Republicans could argue that even if everything Bolton is reported to have said in his book is true, it doesn’t matter because the alleged behavior doesn’t rise to an impeachable offense. That might become less tenable as a strategy if Bolton actually sits in a witness chair and gives his version of events.

They could argue that Bolton’s testimony isn’t allowed because it’s covered under some kind of presidential privilege, but they can’t be sure that Chief Justice John Roberts would go along with that interpretation of the law, and voting to overrule him would look bad even if it could be accomplished.

These senators are in the unenviable position of trying to protect a guilty person whose crimes are not well-hidden. As long as they think they have the votes to acquit, this gives them a powerful incentive to just get things over with as fast as possible before even more damaging information comes to light.

Allowing Bolton to testify would probably make an eventual acquittal harder to justify, so denying him as a witness must still look like the best option.

But that seems like a truly stupid strategy to me. Trump makes a habit of getting away with his crimes while his associates go to jail. The Republican senators may not wind up in prison, but they could discover that the cost of saving Trump’s presidency is the end of their own political careers. He survives and they die.

This pattern is well enough established at this point that you’d think more Republicans would understand it.

Pete Buttigieg Has a Smart Strategy for Iowa

The former South Bend mayor is making a last second pitch that he’s the best canddiate to win over Obama-Trump voters in 2020.

Most of the recent polls show President Trump’s approval numbers surging since the impeachment trial began to levels he has never enjoyed during his term in office. So, it makes sense for Pete Buttigieg to emphasize his supposed ability to win back Obama-Trump voters in Iowa as part of this last-minute strategy before the caucuses. His campaign reportedly believes that he must place in the top two in either Iowa or New Hampshire or his campaign will be effectively finished. He thinks he can accomplish this by focusing his efforts on some of the Iowa counties that moved from Obama to Trump.

He’s positioned fairly well if you believe the polls. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s running in second place behind Bernie Sanders in the latest offerings. But it’s probably too simplistic to see his strategy as simply aimed at Trump voters.

Before I get to that, though, we have to accept that we’re talking about Iowa voters who went for a black man but not a white woman. Now we’re talking about them possibly going for a gay man. The kind of voter who would demonstrate a decision tree like this doesn’t fit the stereotypical mold of a midwestern Trump voter. Rather, they fit the mold of someone who tends to vote for change. They’re less MAGA-hat wearing racists than “throw the bums out” voters, and they’ve probably seen enough of Trump provided they have an acceptable alternative. If Clinton wasn’t enough change for them in 2016, then Biden won’t appeal to them in 2020. It’s not clear how many of these voters are out there, but they certainly exist.

As a strategy for Buttigieg, however, it’s not really as important that he can actually woo these voters as that he can convince Democratic caucus-goers that he has the potential to do so in the general election. And Democrats who live in Obama-Trump counties are the most traumatized and the best-primed for electability arguments. They know their neighbors, and they know what kind of candidate it will take to win them back. If Buttigieg can convince them that he’s that candidate, he’ll get a boost in those counties’ caucuses.

I can’t substitute my own judgment for theirs, but it seems clear that candidates like Biden and Klobuchar also have a compelling argument to make. They both seem less ideologically threatening or disruptive than Warren or Sanders. After that, their appeal probably diverges, with Biden having more appeal to working class men and Klobuchar more appeal to suburban women.

To my mind, they both have more potential than Buttigieg to win midwestern Obama-Trump voters. Bernie Sanders has potential, too, mainly because of his strong anti-free trade positions.

Having said that, Buttigieg is still making a smart play by framing his electability on his ability to win back Obama voters. It’s just that this is probably going to be more persuasive to Clinton voters.