On Monday, after I saw Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s proposed rules for the impeachment trial, I kind of sat with that information for about five hours. Then I wrote a piece for my subscribers called “Mitch McConnell is Weak and Stupid.” My basic point was that if McConnell was correct when he told Sean Hannity that there was “zero chance” that Donald Trump would be convicted and removed from office, then the real battle is over whether that outcome is accepted by the American public. From that perspective, it would make the most sense to bend over backwards to make the process look fair. But McConnell took the opposite approach. Either this is a dumb political decision or McConnell is afraid that the evidence against the president is so strong that his caucus would find it very difficult to acquit him if it were presented at the trial.
But I should have thought about it for just a little bit longer. It may not be that McConnell is primarily worried that his caucus will defect and find the president guilty, but that the process would destroy his Senate majority. This would be for two reasons.
First, and most obviously, if the evidence is overwhelming and the president is still found not guilty, the Trump-supporting senators who are up for reelection in 2020 will be very vulnerable to defeat, and this might include some folks who are considered very safe at the moment.
Second, the damage to Trump would be severe and present a huge problem for the party because they plan on renominating him and having him run at the top of their ticket. They need to sing his praises all year long and you can imagine how painful it would be to hold the Republican National Convention in an environment where everyone is constantly being asked how they can be celebrating an obvious criminal who the American people wanted removed from office for abuse of power and contempt of Congress.
For McConnell, the best option is to limit the evidence even if the process is seen as illegitimate. He’s going to take a big hit either way, but protecting Trump from the truth is preferable to giving the impression that there was a full and fair trial.
I’m still not sure how solidly McConnell has this sewn up. He could wind up with the worst of both worlds if he can’t prevent witnesses and yet the trial is still seen as a clear scam on the American people.
But I think people need to focus a bit more on the fact that this trial isn’t just about winning an acquittal for Trump, but also about keeping him minimally viable as the Republican presidential nominee.
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I think he is worried about stuff coming out that is damaging to other Republicans, not just Trump and his close associates, which may be affecting how his caucus members behave.
With the huge amount of Russian money that has been getting to the GOP through various paths, it could be that Putin has leverage and is putting some pressure on the process also.
I think you are right on both scores. May he get more than he asked for in plain view of the people.
Well, if we just look at Nunes, that stands to reason.
Or is McConnell himself implicated:
https://medium.com/@TheDemCoalition/mitch-mcconnells-ties-to-russian-oil-money-db56f16a4824
The only thing McConnell cares about is keeping power. However he conducts the trial will be how he thinks best to do that. There is nothing else to the man than that. Any other analysis is both wrong and a waste of time. The only thing to discuss is whether he’s right. He usually is but not always
I still don’t get how having a “dark of night” trial helps him and the vulnerable GOP senators in purple and light blue states. Has the Fox News amoeba eaten his brain as well? To those outside the right wing media bubble, all these machinations look like a coverup. Those senators will have nothing except process arguments in debates, and process doesn’t sway the average indy or soft Dem voter. It looks like a sham, and it’s going to be very hard to defend.
Because anything else will be worse. If he doesn’t cover up and more information comes out it will be worse. If he holds this in the day everyone will be able to see the cover up live and awake instead of having to hear it second hand from a half-creditable media or half asleep. And why expose the Fox bots to anything that challenges them more than he has to? How many people are going to take more from this than Trump was acquitted? Everything is forgotten especially with Trump forcing the left to lurch from outrage to outrage. He’s going to rely on the right wing media conspiracy to help. Even if only a few forget by election day, it will still be more than if he didn’t do a sham.
He’s doing the best he can with a bad set of circumstances.
Good points. But as much as McConnell can control the trial, he can’t control what goes on outside. Even if he succeeds in excluding evidence and witnesses (and a very healthy majority of Americans, even most Republicans, say they want those), evidence will continue to be presented in the news media. The worse it is, the more impact it will have and the less Republicans will be able to control it. They will spin like crazy (they already do, in case you haven’t noticed), but they will have zero credibility outside the usual cultist bubble.
Good points. But as much as McConnell can control the trial, he can’t control what goes on outside. Even if he succeeds in excluding evidence and witnesses (and a very healthy majority of Americans, even most Republicans, say they want those), evidence will continue to come out in the news media. The worse it is, the more impact it will have and the less Republicans will be able to control it. They will spin like crazy (they already do, in case you haven’t noticed), but they will get zero credibility outside the usual cultist bubble.
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