Is Trump Right to Prefer Bernie?

It’s not obvious that Biden would be a stronger opponent for Trump, but he’d be a safer choice for congressional Democrats.

It’s interesting that Donald Trump still thinks that Joe Biden is his strongest possible Democrat challenger. I’m not sure he’s right about that, but it’s hard to dispute that the president believes it and that it informs his strategy.

President Trump is urging Republicans to vote in South Carolina’s Democratic primary on Saturday for the weakest candidate — determining that is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Trump, hosting a rally in South Carolina on Friday night, asked his crowd to help him pick the recipient of GOP votes in the “open” primary.

“I assume this is okay from a campaign finance standpoint,” Trump joked before carrying out his “poll” on the eve of the primary election.

He asked audience members to cheer for the Democrat they’d prefer be his easiest-to-beat opponent — Sanders or former Vice President Joe Biden.

“I think maybe Crazy Bernie has it,” Trump said.

Asking one more time for his supporters to cheer for either former vice president Biden or Sanders, Trump confirmed: “They think Bernie’s easier to beat.”

I’m sure a few Republicans will follow his advice and vote for Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina primary today. Personally, my analysis says that this would be more likely to help the Republicans win House and Senate seats than to help Trump win reelection. From that standpoint, it could make some sense, but Trump isn’t known for his altruism toward his Republican allies. He must think Bernie would be easy to beat.

I think the current polls should at least cause Trump to reexamine that assumption. As I’ve said repeatedly, the problem with Sanders is less with how many votes he might pull but where he might pull them from. He’ll cut into Trump’s base while allowing Trump to make a comeback in the suburbs. This is likely to be damaging to House Democrats. Whether it will make it harder for Democrats to win statewide in some of the Senate and battleground states is harder to predict, since we have to know what the rural/suburban swap looks like, and also whether Sanders can uniquely boost youth turnout and add numbers that way.

Biden wins by crushing in the suburbs, doing less poorly than Clinton in the rural/small towns, and holding the maximum number of disaffected Republicans. He’s also uniquely strong in Pennsylvania, which is important. This kind of victory fits nicely with the Democrats’ House majority and their efforts to win Senate seats in places like North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado and Texas. But Sanders would win by bringing back more traditional Democrats and holding down Trump’s numbers in his strongholds by seriously competing for the youth vote there.

These totally different paths make a big difference for Congress but actually could be two ways of getting to the same place in terms of beating Trump.

Sanders’ path is more speculative and risky, and it will test the unity of the party. For that reason I don’t support going in that direction. But anyone who thinks Biden isn’t a risk hasn’t seen him campaign.

Saturday Painting Palooza Vol.759

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be starting with a new painting of the Grand Canyon. The photo that I’m using (my own from a recent visit) is seen directly below.


I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 5×7 inch canvas.

I started with my usual grid and pencil sketch. Not a difficult sketch but it helps to place various elements in their appropriate places. Next week some actual paint.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.


I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

What If the Afghan War Ended and No One Noticed?

The Trump administration is ready to sign an agreement on Saturday with the Taliban, but you’d never know it from the news coverage.

I’ve been watching cable news for over an hour now and I haven’t seen any mention of the supposed peace agreement with the Taliban. I’m not sure what this means. We’ve been fighting the Taliban for almost nineteen years. You’d think that the prospect of this ending would warrant at least one second of coverage. But all anyone wants to talk about is the coronavirus, the stock market, the South Carolina primary, and a few moronic items of the day. Perhaps no one actually believes that anything will come of the agreement, but it did actually get announced:

After a week-long deal to reduce violence across Afghanistan, the U.S. and the Taliban are set to sign a historic agreement Saturday that would see U.S. troops start to withdraw, according to a statement issued Friday afternoon by President Donald Trump.

“Soon, at my direction, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will witness the signing of an agreement with representatives of the Taliban, while Secretary of Defense Mark Esper will issue a joint declaration with the government of Afghanistan. If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments, we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home,” Trump said.

I could critique this agreement, but I want to be clear that if there were any prospect of a happy outcome for America in Afghanistan, this conflict would have ended years ago. Staying there just puts off the day that our failure becomes impossible to deny. So, in the interest of not prolonging the inevitable, I’m okay with a deal that is objectively a joke with no realistic chance of success.

I’m not surprised to see Liz Cheney screaming that the Taliban cannot be trusted and this is a bad deal. That’s a “No shit, Sherlock!” observation on her part. But she and her bloodless father have no better ideas so she should pipe down.

No one is paying attention anyway.

David Brooks Establishes the #NeverSanders Group

If he can’t choose between Bernie and Trump, maybe Brooks can just take the rest of this election cycle off.

I think maybe David Brooks needs a little more editorial oversight. Consider his latest column in the New York Times. He begins by telling us that he needs to make a choice.

A few months ago, I wrote a column saying I would vote for Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump. I may not agree with some of her policies, but culture is more important than politics. She does not spread moral rot the way Trump does.

Now I have to decide if I’d support Bernie Sanders over Trump.

And then he ends the piece by saying that he refuses to make a choice:

I’ll cast my lot with democratic liberalism. The system needs reform. But I just can’t pull the lever for either of the two populisms threatening to tear it down.

That’s a pretty fundamental flaw. Faced with a decision between Trump and Sanders, Brooks decides to punt. The reason is that he doesn’t see either of them as defenders of democratic liberalism, which is really just a term of art that means the American Establishment.

To make his case against Sanders, he engages in his own form of extremism. Right out of the box, he brings forth the specter of Soviet Russian totalitarianism.

We all start from personal experience. I covered the Soviet Union in its final decrepit years. The Soviet and allied regimes had already slaughtered 20 million people through things like mass executions and intentional famines. Those regimes were slave states. They enslaved whole peoples and took away the right to say what they wanted, live where they wanted and harvest the fruits of their labor.

And yet every day we find more old quotes from Sanders apologizing for this sort of slave regime, whether in the Soviet Union, Cuba or Nicaragua. He excused the Nicaraguan communists when they took away the civil liberties of their citizens. He’s still making excuses for Castro.

To sympathize with these revolutions in the 1920s was acceptable, given their original high ideals. To do so after the Hitler-Stalin pact, or in the 1950s, is appalling. To do so in the 1980s is morally unfathomable.

It takes a certain amount of historical revisionism to write the history of the Cold War is such a simplistic manner. Brooks doesn’t talk about the 1954 American-sponsored coup d’etat in Guatemala that removed a leftist government, set off a 36-year civil war, and cost 200,000 people their lives. He doesn’t talk about the 1973 American-sponsored coup d’etat in Chile that removed a leftist government and replaced it with a right-wing dictatorship that killed, tortured, or imprisoned over 40,000 people for strictly political reasons. Brooks says nothing about American complicity in Operation Condor.

In 1975, six South American military dictatorships conspired to concoct a secret plan to eliminate their left-wing opponents. Not only would the intelligence services of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay trade information with each other and kidnap, disappear and kill their own domestic foes, they would also cooperate in identifying and killing exiles from partner countries who had taken refuge elsewhere.

By the time Operation Condor ended in the early 1980s, as many as 60,000 people may have been killed.

He doesn’t even ponder whether or not the CIA’s relentless drive to overthrow or assassinate Fidel Castro may have contributed to Cuba’s tyrannical approach to dissent and security. You don’t have to have any sympathy for communism to understand that criticism of America’s approach to Latin America during the Cold War was often based in a defense of liberal democracy and self-determination rather than a decision to side with the Soviets. In any case, left-leaning governments there had no monopoly on violence and America’s best allies had little to no commitment to human rights. That was certainly the case in Nicaragua, which is why President Carter forced Anastasio Somoza Debayle out of power in 1979, citing his human rights abuses.

Brooks may or may not actually believe in his fairy tale version of the Cold War, but it’s quite evident what really bugs him about Sanders.

Traditional liberalism traces its intellectual roots to John Stuart Mill, John Locke, the Social Gospel movement and the New Deal. This liberalism believes in gaining power the traditional way: building coalitions, working within the constitutional system and crafting the sort of compromises you need in a complex, pluralistic society.

This is why liberals like Hubert Humphrey, Ted Kennedy, and Elizabeth Warren were and are such effective senators. They worked within the system, negotiated and practiced the art of politics.

Populists like Sanders speak as if the whole system is irredeemably corrupt. Sanders was a useless House member and has been a marginal senator because he doesn’t operate within this system or believe in this theory of change.

I think Sanders’ record as a legislator in the House and Senate is quite a bit better than “useless,” although I’d tend to agree that his effectiveness as a senator has been limited. He’s made his contributions here and there, notably on veterans’ issues and the Affordable Care Act, but he hasn’t worked well enough with others to be in the same category as Hubert Humphrey and Teddy Kennedy. But Brooks isn’t bothered by Sanders’ relative lack of effectiveness. He is bothered by the way Sanders talks about the system as “irredeemably corrupt.”

If Sanders thought the system was truly irredeemable, however, he wouldn’t be running for president and promising to redeem it. The problem for Brooks is that he doesn’t want to see any redemption through “revolutionary mass mobilization,” and he fears that Sanders would “rule by majoritarian domination.” It’s unclear how he thinks that would happen given the power granted to the minority in the Senate and Sanders’ opposition to removing the legislative filibuster. That’s the kind of establishmentarianism that Brooks normally celebrates, but it’s Elizabeth Warren who is championing filibuster reform.

Yet, Brooks would vote for Warren over Trump and not for Sanders. This must be in part because he sees Sanders as cruel, bitter and vindictive. It’s a wonder he doesn’t think Bernie has horns:

Liberalism celebrates certain values: reasonableness, conversation, compassion, tolerance, intellectual humility and optimism. Liberalism is horrified by cruelty. Sanders’s leadership style embodies the populist values, which are different: rage, bitter and relentless polarization, a demand for ideological purity among your friends and incessant hatred for your supposed foes.

This is just an uncharitable caricature of Sanders and his movement which fails precisely because it refuses to examine the positive motives behind the rhetoric.  In the context of the 2020 election, it’s really an extreme form of both-siderism where Trump’s xenophobia is equated with Sanders disdain for billionaires.

Brooks complains that “Sanders masquerades as something less revolutionary than he really is,” which is possibly true, but also less relevant than the fact that he’ll never be able to enact 99 percent of his agenda because Brooks’ cherished system will never allow it.

It takes a certain amount of insanity to see Sanders as an equal threat to liberal values as the current occupant of the White House. If Brooks can’t choose between them, maybe he can just take the rest of this election cycle off.

This Week is Ruining My Childhood

From Dean Cain to the Miracle on Ice hockey team, my memories are being sullied by Trumpism.

I have a weird connection to Dean Cain. When I was senior at Princeton High School in 1987, I befriended a group of Princeton University seniors who lived at 53 Little Hall. There were a lot of fringe benefits to this for me, as it gave me the opportunity to enjoy the weekend party life with a bunch of co-eds. The guy I was closest to was dating Brooke Shields’ roommate, and Brooke Shields was dating Dean Cain.

At the time, Dean Cain was a big deal. In 1987, Cain established a Princeton football season record by intercepting 12 passes as their starting free safety. I know I attended at least a couple of those games.

I did not know it at the time, but Dean Cain went to Santa Monica High School (with Charlie Sheen and Rob Lowe). In 1989, I moved to Los Angeles and started attending Santa Monica College.

Of course, Dean Cain also was living in Los Angeles at this time and he was beginning to get small parts and do commercials. In 1993, after I had returned to the east coast, Dean got his big break when he was cast in Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman. I was pretty excited for him even though I doubt he would have known my name. I tried watching the show, but I’m just not into that kind of programming. I know a lot of people watched it and I’ve heard mostly positive things about its entertainment value.  And that’s really all I knew about Dean Cain. The Superman show went off the air in the late-1990’s and I gradually forgot that it (or Dean) had ever existed.

But then I found out about this:

One day after briefing the press in an attempt to calm nerves about the spread of the new coronavirus, President Donald Trump spent 45 minutes talking to the lead actors of a low-budget conservative play about the so-called Deep State.

Phelim McAleer, the playwright behind the play FBI Lovebirds: Undercovers, told The Daily Beast that the meeting with Trump had originally been scheduled for just 15 minutes but went 30 minutes longer than that.

“We went for a 15-minute meeting that took 45 minutes,” McAleer said. “We were there for 45 minutes in the Oval Office, and he loves it, he loves the play.”

I was curious, so I read on. It was a decision I instantly regretted for several reasons.

Trump hasn’t seen the play, according to McAleer, but praised its concept: a script based entirely on congressional testimony and the text messages between former FBI agent Peter Strzok and former FBI lawyer Lisa Page, who discussed the FBI’s investigation into Trump’s campaign and Russia while having an affair. The play’s leads—Superman actor Dean Cain and former Buffy the Vampire Slayer actress Kristy Swanson—also attended the White House meeting.

It’s funny what’s happened this week. I remember watching the U.S. Olympic Hockey Team beat the Soviets in Lake Placid when I was tens years old. I was in some timeshare condo my parents owned down in the Sea Pines Plantation on Hilton Head Island. I’m pretty sure I remember how I felt and some of the details because I witnessed the event in an unusual setting rather than in my living room at home. In any case, it was a precious thing of mine, and it was largely ruined by this:

If he had to do it again, hockey legend Mike Eruzione said, he would not put on the red “Keep America Great” hat.

He and his teammates from the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey squad hadn’t meant to make a grand political statement when they appeared onstage as President Trump’s surprise guests at a campaign rally in Las Vegas on Friday. They happened to be in town to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the “Miracle on Ice” — their shocking upset of the Soviet Union en route to the gold medal, perhaps the most unifying moment in American sports history — when they got a call from Trump’s campaign inviting them to a private photo line with the president.

The next thing they knew, Eruzione said, Trump was introducing them at the rally and a campaign aide was handing them the caps as they took the stage. Four of the former players chose not to wear them — but 10 others did, prompting a huge backlash on social media from Trump’s critics, who view the distinctive red campaign hats as sharply politicized symbols of hate, racism and xenophobia.

I’m glad Mike Eruzione regrets it because he shat all over this boy’s childhood memory. And that’s kind of what Dean Cain is doing to my fond recollections of hanging out in the periphery of his social scene when I was a high school senior.

On Valentine’s Day, I celebrated my father’s 87th birthday. I told him that it bothered me that he was born the year that Hitler came to power and still had to witness the bullshit white supremacy we’re getting from the Trump administration (Stephen Miller is another graduate of Santa Monica High School).

Sometimes it feels like we’ve all lived too long. But, that’s not really it. What’s actually going on is that Trump and Trumpism are ruining everything we cherish.

The Arrogance of Michael Bloomberg

He’s been on the wrong side of the #Occupy, #BlackLivesMatter and #MeToo movements, but he thought none of that would matter if he just spent enough money.

I want to talk about the arrogance of Michael Bloomberg for a moment, but to make my point I need to talk about the big themes that have driven the left over the last twelve years. Before the election of Donald Trump, the left was defined by the #Occupy and #BlackLivesMatter movements. After the election of Trump the focus shifted to #TrumpRussia and #MeToo, but the prior concerns did not go away. The left has been criticized for focusing too much on identity politics and not enough on bread and butter issues. Likewise, they’re been accused of obsessing about Trump and the integrity of the last election and not putting enough emphasis on the things that concern people in their day-to-day lives. The truth is that there has always been a mix.

Irrespective of what Democratic leaders choose to highlight in any given week, the left is split between those who are focused most on economic and global issues like climate change, corporatism, trade and income inequality, and those who are focused most on civil rights and more fairness for women, minorities and people in the LGBTQ community.

Bloomberg has a good record on two major issues that are of major concern to the left: gun violence and climate change. As for the rest, he’s about the worst fit for the left that can be imagined. On the economic front, he sees Social Security as a Ponzi scheme and thinks a wealth tax would be unconstitutional. On the cultural front, the stop and frisk policy he championed as the mayor of New York was exactly the kind of thing that #BlackLivesMatter rails against, and his record with women makes him a prime target of the #MeToo movement.

It’s hard to exaggerate what an affront it is to ask women who are sickened by Trump to support Bloomberg, or to the ask the same of folks who have been fighting to end police brutality against minority communities. To see how offensive Bloomberg is to the economic populists, just look at the visceral reaction to him we saw from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the Nevada and South Carolina debates.

Yet, Bloomberg somehow thinks he’s a good fit for this party and this time. Any objective observer would disabuse him of that notion, but he believes he can just overcome dissent with money. I don’t know what offends me the most, the idea that his ambition should cancel out the values of the Democratic Party or the idea that people are so suggestible that paid advertising can cause them to abandon their principles.

Bloomberg has always treated party affiliation (whether Republican, Democratic or independent) as a matter of strategy rather than principle. Now he appears to believe that he’s the only person who can beat Trump and that he can simply spend the other candidates out of contention and Trump out of office.

Virtually everything about his campaign is offensive, including that it’s even legal for him to use so much of his fortune to swamp the armies of small donors who have ponied up for other candidates. He’s succeeded in raising the cost of advertising and staff for his opponents who, as a result, have less of an opportunity to build their organizations or get their messages out.

It might have worked for Bloomberg if he didn’t have such a public record of being terrible on the things that matter to the left, but it was the height of arrogance for him to think that none of that would matter.

The Biden-Sanders Finale I Predicted Is Shaping Up

If the polls are accurate about South Carolina, Biden is about to emerge as the last bulwark against Bernie’s takeover of the Democratic Party.

The Real Clear Politics average of South Carolina polls shows Joe Biden with a comfortable lead (31.4. percent) over Bernie Sanders (20.6 percent). Billionaire Tom Steyer clocks in just above the minimum threshold for delegates at 15.4 percent, and everyone else falls below.

If this is close to the actual result in the Palmetto State, it will shake things up a bit. There isn’t much time for the impact to be felt, however, as the Super Tuesday voting comes a mere three days after the polls open in South Carolina. Still, in the last contest before Bloomberg makes his presence known, it will be disastrous for anyone not to reach the 15 percent viability level. Elizabeth Warren cannot afford to do as poorly as predicted (8.8 percent), and nether can Pete Buttigieg (8 percent) or Amy Klobuchar (3.6 percent).

Biden has been patiently waiting for a victory, and watching his initial advantage slip away steadily with every loss. The erosion has been so substantial that it has put his campaign in grave peril, and it’s not clear that even a strong win on Saturday can save him. But he never really expected to win before Nevada at the earliest, and he’s premised his strategy all along on getting a bounce out of South Carolina going into Super Tuesday. If he gets a win, even a narrow one, he’ll be at least somewhat close to wear he expected to be.

His problem is that Bernie Sanders is looking stronger than he hoped. FiveThirtyEight projects Sanders as an overwhelming favorite to carry several Super Tuesday states, including California, Utah, Colorado and Vermont. He’s also listed as a better than 50 percent bet to win Texas and Massachusetts. Biden’s projected haul is more tentative and has many fewer delegates.  He only has better than even odds of winning Alabama, and he and Sanders each lead the field with a 39 percent chance of winning Tennessee.  He’s within striking distance of Sanders in Oklahoma and North Carolina and has at least an outside shot of catching him in Texas, Arkansas and Virginia.  The latest poll out of Texas has Sanders and Biden tied at 24 percent, so perhaps he’s building some momentum there.

Needless to say, Biden better hope so because it’s not going to do him much good to carry a couple of southern states while Sanders carries delegate-heavy states like Texas, California, North Carolina, and Massachusetts.  Things will look a lot better if he can carry Texas and sweep the southern states. A strong win in South Carolina accompanied by poor performances by Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar will give him a shot, but it’s not clear if there will be enough time for opinions to change.

And Bloomberg is the most likely reason why Biden will fail. The Texas poll I just mentioned shows Biden beating Sanders 31 to 25 percent if Bloomberg isn’t option, yet he’s in a dead heat (24 percent to 24 percent) when Bloomberg is included. In other words, Bloomberg is pulling almost no voters away from Sanders. This makes it even more critical for Biden that the other challengers collapse as expected in South Carolina.

Unfortunately, the data out of the Nevada caucuses is anything but encouraging for Biden. Sanders was far more likely to be people’s second pick in the ranked choice voting there, meaning that there’s no empirical reason to believe Biden will be the beneficiary if people move away from their support of other candidates.

I predicted way back in April 2019 that it was most likely going to come down to a Biden-Sanders race. Bloomberg has thrown a wrench into my early analysis, but if Biden gets his win in South Carolina I still think my projections will be seen as very prescient.

It was my analysis on this point that drove pretty much everything I’ve had to say on this race. It’s why I privately told people that my top choices were Warren and Biden, in that order. My progressive friends often found this confusing, but it came down to my first preference followed by the person I believed would be the last standing against Sanders.

As for my opposition to Sanders, that has been explained over and over again with reference to my analysis of the Democrats’ reliance on a suburban strategy. I spent the run-up to the 2018 midterms begging the Democrats to expand the ambitions beyond the suburbs or risk becoming a white collar party. Having ignored this advice and reaped their electoral reward and House majority, it’s too late for them to unify around a more populist approach. I’m not willingly rolling the dice on Bernie’s revolution primarily because there is too much risk of failure.

If I’m wrong and it works and Sanders is elected president, in some ways I’ll see it as a tremendous thing. I’ll be enormously relieved. And I don’t think this is impossible. I also don’t think any of the other candidates are necessarily favorites against Trump. I do think the other candidates would have a better chance of governing the country effectively, however, because they’d have more support from their own party.

I’m progressive, perhaps even a Democratic-Socialist, but I’m practical. As for seeing the future, you be the judge.

 

 

 

Trump Would Probably Benefit from a Coronavirus Pandemic

Whether people think he’s handling it comptetently or not, they will sympathize with his desire to harden our borders and restrict immigration.

Anyone who thinks the global outbreak of the coronavirus has the potential to sink Donald Trump’s reelection chances should also consider how it can help him. The risks to the president are already evident. Efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 are disrupting travel and the global supply chain, which has already led to a sharp downturn of the stock market. At the same time, the administration’s reaction has been disjointed, dishonest, and contradictory. If the public loses confidence that Trump has a handle on the problem and Americans start to die in large numbers, they could punish him at the polls. He’s concerned enough about this that he’s scheduled a press conference for 6 p.m. on Wednesday.

Yet, I know from consulting my own visceral fears of the virus, that there’s a strong impulse in the public to limit international travel and close the borders so that containment efforts have some limited chance at success. As Steve Erlanger writes in the New York Times, this feeds right into Trump’s worldview.

Globalization, that awkward catchall for our interconnectedness, was already under assault from populists, terrorists, trade warriors and climate activists, having become an easy target for much that ails us.

Now comes the coronavirus. Its spread, analysts and experts say, may be a decisive moment in the fervid debates over how much the world integrates or separates.

Even before the virus arrived in Europe, climate change, security concerns and complaints about unfair trade had intensified anxieties about global air travel and globalized industrial supply chains, as well as reinforcing doubts about the reliability of China as a partner.

The virus already has dealt another blow to slowing economies, and emboldened populists to revive calls, tinged with racism and xenophobia, for tougher controls over migrants, tourists and even multinational corporations.

The Republicans have used a public health scare to their advantage before, most notably when a few isolated cases of the Ebola virus showed up in the United States during the 2014 midterm cycle.

Republicans fared spectacularly well in the 2014 mid-term elections, re-capturing the Senate while also making gains in state legislatures. While analysts generally attributed this success to the older, more conservative make-up of the electorate, it turns out the GOP had a secret weapon going for it: the Ebola virus.

Newly published research finds fear of the infectious disease, which was widely in the news in the month before the election, increased voters’ intention to vote Republican. This effect was primarily found in red states, which means the outbreak effectively turned them a deeper shade of red.

Fear of a coronavirus pandemic are many times more rational than the fears of Ebola were in 2014, primarily because COVID-19 is less lethal and it is therefore much harder to identify and isolate people who are contagious. It’s quite possible to be infected with this virus and never know it, but you can still spread it to someone who will die as a result.

This kind of helplessness feeds panic, and panic will lead people to support illiberal policies they would never ordinarily consider.

As Erlanger notes, there is a preexisting upswing in resistance to globalization in the West that is evident on both the right and the left, and a pandemic that arises out of China has a lot of potency to feed that resistance.

…the spread of the virus to Europe will also have a significant impact on politics, likely boosting the anti-immigrant, anti-globalization far right, Mr. [Simon] Tilford [director of the Forum New Economy, a research institution in Berlin] said.

“We already see a lot of populist concern about the merits of globalization as benefiting multinationals, the elite and foreigners, not local people and local companies,” he said.

Politicians who insist on control over borders and immigration will be helped, even as the virus transcends borders easily.

It shouldn’t take a lot of imagination to picture how even the left in America could start to embrace more border enforcement or even exploit the crisis to advance their anti-trade and anti-corporate ideologies.

A true pandemic that is facilitated by air travel and corporate interconnectedness is a good reason to reexamine assumptions about how we’ve organized the world, but thoughtfulness doesn’t flourish among panicked people in a presidential election year. It’s more likely to make people look for protection from a strong leader and to prefer drastic efforts instead of timid ones.

So, if the Democrats think it’s to their advantage to exploit the government’s less-than-adequate efforts to contain the virus, they ought to think again. Calming the public, if possible, is a better political play than arousing their fear that the government isn’t doing enough.

Reassurance is the way to go, and this can done by explaining the relatively simple steps they can take to improve the government’s ability to protect the public, starting with putting the science over the politics.

In the meantime, the House Democrats should invite scientists to testify and create a supplemental spending bill that is aimed at containing the crisis based on their advice. This is good policy and their obligation as our representatives, but it’s also good politics. If they help Trump limit the death toll, they’ll actually be helping themselves more than they’ll be helping him.

The Ineffective Surveillance State

The National Security Agency tracks our emails and texts and yet they get virtually nothing of value out of it.

It bothers me that our government (and other governments, too) keeps us under so much surveillance, but what is more dispiriting is that they’ll continue to do it at great expense even thought it’s not effective.

A National Security Agency system that analyzed logs of Americans’ domestic phone calls and text messages cost $100 million from 2015 to 2019, but yielded only a single significant investigation, according to a newly declassified study.

Moreover, only twice during that four-year period did the program generate unique information that the F.B.I. did not already possess, said the study, which was produced by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board and briefed to Congress on Tuesday.

“Based on one report, F.B.I. vetted an individual, but, after vetting, determined that no further action was warranted,” the report said. “The second report provided unique information about a telephone number, previously known to U.S. authorities, which led to the opening of a foreign intelligence investigation.”

My main beef has always been that we have a 4th Amendment for a reason and there should be some probable cause for tracking every call or text we send or receive. But I thought that it would at least occasionally have the benefit of catching criminals and saving lives.

It turns out, these programs aren’t even good at doing that. Right now, the NSA is patting itself on the back for its decision to discontinue this specific surveillance effort, but I suspect they’ll just continue something just like under a different name. If they have the capability to gather information, they seem constitutionally incapable of restraining themselves,

In this case, the Constitution did play a role:

In an interview, the [privacy] board’s chairman, Adam I. Klein, praised the National Security Agency for deciding last year to suspend the program — not only because of its high cost and low value, but because of continuing problems in which telecommunications companies kept sending the agency more people’s phone records than it had legal authority to collect.

So, it was expensive, did not prevent crime, and was impossible to administer in a legal way. I suspect its failure to prevent crime was the least of their concerns. They just didn’t want a scandal that would threaten their careers and the agency’s budget.