Martin Longman is the web editor of the Washington Monthly.
He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. Before joining the Monthly, Martin was a county coordinator for ACORN/Project Vote and a political consultant. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
She is on the way out. I saw a comment where someone asked what she gave up on today. She is now around ten percent in Nevada according to 538 last I looked.
Warren needs second place or she is done, and I see no other path. She needs the race to change. Second place is enough for a comeback story. But if it’s another third or fourth? What’s the point? The media is already ignoring her and polling Klobuchar in head to heads while not polling Warren (like wtf). It’s fucking absurd. She got screwed by IA fuck ups, but I suspect she needed second there too. The race was lost when she got third in IA. Pete won’t be the nominee, but he’ll have perhaps been the main thing to have… Read more »
NEW: Asked about online attacks from Sanders supporters & if he has done enough to condemn them, Warren tells me Sanders “has a lot of questions to answer here” & “that’s not how we build an inclusive Dem party & not how we beat Trump. We do not build on a foundation of hate.” pic.twitter.com/wk6Sn3VVyO
You know, I really don’t get this talk about a “compromise candidate” at a contested convention. It’s not like we elect delegates to negotiate for us. We elect them as proxies for our first-choice candidate. They are not going to the convention with any information about our second and third choices. I have a lot of reservations about Bernie and his ability to win a general election. But it seems to me that if he gets to the convention with a definite plurality, then we would all be best served by getting behind him as the candidate that has the… Read more »
I disagree with this: “It’s not like we elect delegates to negotiate for us. We elect them as proxies for our first-choice candidate.” If no candidate wins on the first ballot, I expect my delegates to negotiate–that’s their role.
I agree that it’s the role of delegates to negotiate and choose a nominee if no candidate has a majority on the first ballot. The challenge is that 1) no Democratic delegate has had to do that since 1952, and 2) delegates are no longer chosen primarily by state party “bosses” who are both used to and skilled at negotiating compromises.
Point taken. I was involved in the overthrow of the bosses and maybe it wasn’t the righteous crusade we thought it was. They were first replaced by ‘opinion leaders’ and now by “influencers”.
I’m afraid you’re probably right about Warren, Martin. It’s a shame–she’s smart and capable and I’ve paid my dues as a supporter. It’s ironic that, even though they allowed her to effectively demonstrate those qualities, the debates were a disaster in forcing the candidates into the policy weeds. I understand the value of policy discussion but–let’s keep our eyes on the prize–the most important goal in this election is saving American Democracy. I think the attraction of Bloomberg has been that he’s (albeit deus ex machina) hammering at Trump and pretty effectively. I balk at the idea, however, that only… Read more »
Waiting on Super Tuesday. I wish she had more of an organization in my state, although I understand why she wouldn’t – apart from money. Super Tuesday is make or break. For better or worse, two elderly men are likely to fight it out. The elderly man I will likely end up advocating for (as he can already fund and support a staff) at least can represent the Democrats as something other than a commie party. I get the impression that we really lost an opportunity with Warren. In the meantime, if the elderly candidate I now realistically hope for… Read more »
As of now, Warren is hitting Bloomberg as hard as anyone, and that is consistent with her overall message. She may want to find a way to do that going forward in a way that is less alienating than what is coming from Sanders and his supporters. Her best hope is to be seen as a bridge between Sanders and the rest of the field. I don’t think she has to worry about alienating Bloomberg supporters; I don’t get the feeling that anybody genuinely likes him, just his ability to get under Trump’s skin with his generally entertaining attack-ads. Otherwise,… Read more »
Is anyone else wondering whether part of what we saw last night was Warren shifting her strategy: if she’s going to be “everyone’s 2nd choice” going into an undecided convention, and emerge as the compromise/unity nominee, then she needs to accomplish a two-step of 1) hitting the 15% threshold to win delegates, and 2) forcing other candidates out of the race. It’s pretty clear Sanders has a solid base that, barring something completely unexpected, will carry him to the convention. Bloomberg (again, barring something unexpected) has enough money to get to the convention. Warren needs to get to the convention… Read more »
She is on the way out. I saw a comment where someone asked what she gave up on today. She is now around ten percent in Nevada according to 538 last I looked.
Check what Jon Ralston has to say. Pretty sure he knows more about Nevada than 538.
All Nevada polling is highly unreliable because of the nature of the contest
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports
Warren needs second place or she is done, and I see no other path. She needs the race to change. Second place is enough for a comeback story. But if it’s another third or fourth? What’s the point? The media is already ignoring her and polling Klobuchar in head to heads while not polling Warren (like wtf). It’s fucking absurd. She got screwed by IA fuck ups, but I suspect she needed second there too. The race was lost when she got third in IA. Pete won’t be the nominee, but he’ll have perhaps been the main thing to have… Read more »
Perhaps she gets it.
You know, I really don’t get this talk about a “compromise candidate” at a contested convention. It’s not like we elect delegates to negotiate for us. We elect them as proxies for our first-choice candidate. They are not going to the convention with any information about our second and third choices. I have a lot of reservations about Bernie and his ability to win a general election. But it seems to me that if he gets to the convention with a definite plurality, then we would all be best served by getting behind him as the candidate that has the… Read more »
I disagree with this: “It’s not like we elect delegates to negotiate for us. We elect them as proxies for our first-choice candidate.” If no candidate wins on the first ballot, I expect my delegates to negotiate–that’s their role.
I agree that it’s the role of delegates to negotiate and choose a nominee if no candidate has a majority on the first ballot. The challenge is that 1) no Democratic delegate has had to do that since 1952, and 2) delegates are no longer chosen primarily by state party “bosses” who are both used to and skilled at negotiating compromises.
Point taken. I was involved in the overthrow of the bosses and maybe it wasn’t the righteous crusade we thought it was. They were first replaced by ‘opinion leaders’ and now by “influencers”.
Liz needs to convince the black voters who have tried Biden and are now flirting with Bloomberg that she can win the whole enchilada.
Everything turns on that and nothing else matters in the end.
I’m afraid you’re probably right about Warren, Martin. It’s a shame–she’s smart and capable and I’ve paid my dues as a supporter. It’s ironic that, even though they allowed her to effectively demonstrate those qualities, the debates were a disaster in forcing the candidates into the policy weeds. I understand the value of policy discussion but–let’s keep our eyes on the prize–the most important goal in this election is saving American Democracy. I think the attraction of Bloomberg has been that he’s (albeit deus ex machina) hammering at Trump and pretty effectively. I balk at the idea, however, that only… Read more »
Waiting on Super Tuesday. I wish she had more of an organization in my state, although I understand why she wouldn’t – apart from money. Super Tuesday is make or break. For better or worse, two elderly men are likely to fight it out. The elderly man I will likely end up advocating for (as he can already fund and support a staff) at least can represent the Democrats as something other than a commie party. I get the impression that we really lost an opportunity with Warren. In the meantime, if the elderly candidate I now realistically hope for… Read more »
As of now, Warren is hitting Bloomberg as hard as anyone, and that is consistent with her overall message. She may want to find a way to do that going forward in a way that is less alienating than what is coming from Sanders and his supporters. Her best hope is to be seen as a bridge between Sanders and the rest of the field. I don’t think she has to worry about alienating Bloomberg supporters; I don’t get the feeling that anybody genuinely likes him, just his ability to get under Trump’s skin with his generally entertaining attack-ads. Otherwise,… Read more »
“I don’t think she has to worry about alienating Bloomberg supporters.” True.
Is anyone else wondering whether part of what we saw last night was Warren shifting her strategy: if she’s going to be “everyone’s 2nd choice” going into an undecided convention, and emerge as the compromise/unity nominee, then she needs to accomplish a two-step of 1) hitting the 15% threshold to win delegates, and 2) forcing other candidates out of the race. It’s pretty clear Sanders has a solid base that, barring something completely unexpected, will carry him to the convention. Bloomberg (again, barring something unexpected) has enough money to get to the convention. Warren needs to get to the convention… Read more »