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The Biden-Sanders Finale I Predicted Is Shaping Up
Discussion
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As usual, good analysis; thanks.
It did, however, make me want to take a moment to mourn the opportunities lost by Biden, Bloomberg, and Sanders not being able to put aside their egos/fear of impending mortality/or whatever else, so that they could *not* run, thereby leaving the field open for candidates like Booker, Castro, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, et al. It seems like this might have been a good year to pass the torch to a new generation of Democrats.
So Bloomberg ultimately may end up handing the nomination to Sanders? Isn’t that exactly the opposite of why he is running? Once he figures that out won’t he drop out?
It’s not just Bloomberg, it’s also Warren who is helping Bernie in some ways. That’s because she might be viable in a lot of Super Tuesday spots, which is preventing Klobuchar and Pete from being viable. If she gets out, she gives her votes mostly to Bernie, but it could push others above thresholds. And then the others are stopping Biden from consolidating.
On the other hand, at this point, a one vs one (Bernie vs. Biden) could be in Bernie’s favor. Really, depends what SC brings, and when the others drop out.
I understand what you’re saying about Bernie and yet I can’t help but get excited about the transformational possibilities, even though the data suggests things aren’t shaping up that way and he’ll be lucky to win for the reasons you’ve cited. As for Biden, I’ve seen him collapse too many times dating back to 1988 and the Neal Kinnock plagiarizing scandal. Back then, he was the guy I supported. Today I’d of course support him if he were the nominee but I have little confidence he’s got what it takes. Even if Bloomberg were not in the race, I don’t… Read more »