I’ve created a visual aid to understanding the remainder of the Democratic presidential nominating process. Below you can see the calendar. I’ve indicated whether each contest is a caucus or a primary and given you the winner in 2016 along with the percentages. You’ll also notice that there are seven states that held caucuses in 2016 that are now holding primaries.
On this last point, you’ll notice that Sanders won all seven of the former caucus states in 2016 by numbers ranging from 57-43 in Nebraska to 83-17 in Alaska. Perhaps one useful thing to look at is the distinction between the 2016 results in North and South Dakota. These are pretty similar states, but Clinton won the South Dakota primary by two points while losing the North Dakota caucus by 28 points. Admittedly, the two contests fell far apart in 2016, but it’s a demonstration of how much better Sanders performed in caucuses. That advantage is now almost eliminated. Outside of the territories, Wyoming is the only caucus left, and it has very few delegates.
There is no guarantee that Sanders will win all the states he won in 2016 or fail to win all the states he lost. Already in 2020, Sanders has won in Nevada (where he lost in 2016) and lost in Oklahoma and Minnesota (where he won in 2016).
But this is still a pretty good roadmap.
Right away on March 10, you can see some potential for Sanders. He won Michigan four years ago and came extremely close to winning Missouri. He also won three caucus states, and although it will be more challenging to win them again in primaries, it certainly seems possible.
March 10
Idaho (Primary) Sanders 78-21 (was a caucus in 2016)
Michigan (Primary) Sanders 50-48
Mississippi (Primary) Clinton 83-17
Missouri (Primary) Clinton 50-49
North Dakota (Primary) Sanders 64-36 (was a caucus in 2016)
Washington (Primary) Sanders 73-27 (was a caucus in 2016)
March 14
Northern Mariana (Caucus) Clinton 54-34
Here is where things begin to look bleak. Maybe Sanders can ride Latinx support in Arizona to victory, and maybe he can get over the hump in Illinois. That might be enough to offset a near certain loss in Florida and a probable one in Ohio. But things will turn rough again a week later in Georgia and Puerto Rico.
March 17
Arizona (Primary) Clinton 57-41
Florida (Primary) Clinton 64-33
Illinois (Primary) Clinton 51-49
Ohio (Primary) Clinton 57-43
March 24
Georgia (Primary) Clinton 71-28
March 29
Puerto Rico (Primary) Clinton 59-38
Early April is the most promising part of the calendar for Sanders. If he can repeat his 2016 victories, he’ll get the better of the delegate battle even if he gets slaughtered in Louisiana, as is likely. But, again, two of these contests were caucuses in 2016 and he should not expect to win them this time by the same margins. After Wisconsin, he’ll have to wait until early May to find a favorable stretch again.
April 4
Alaska (Primary) Sanders 82-18 (was a caucus in 2016)
Hawaii (Primary) Sanders 72-28 (was a caucus in 2016)
Louisiana (Primary) Clinton 71-23
Wyoming (Caucus) Sanders 56-44
April 7
Wisconsin (Primary) Sanders 57-43
The April 28 contests are extremely unfavorable to Sanders and they have a ton of delegates. This is possibly that the last point at which he can plausibly say he has a shot at the nomination. If he doesn’t improve on his 2016 results by a lot, he’ll be done.
April 28
Connecticut (Primary) Clinton 52-47
Delaware (Primary) Clinton 60-39
Maryland (Primary) Clinton 63-33
New York (Primary) Clinton 58-42
Pennsylvania (Primary) Clinton 56-44
Rhode Island (Primary) Sanders 55-43
There aren’t a lot of delegates available in May but Sanders has a shot at winning the majority of them. They could keep him mathematically alive by denying Biden a majority.
May 2
Guam (Caucus) Clinton 60-40
Kansas (Primary) Sanders 68-32 (was a caucus in 2016)
May 5
Indiana (Primary) Sanders 53-47
May 12
Nebraska (Primary) Sanders 57-43 (was a caucus in 2016)
West Virginia (Primary) Sanders 51-36
May 19
Kentucky (Primary) Clinton 47-46
Oregon (Primary) Sanders 56-43
If things are still in doubt at this point, it looks pretty unlikely that June 2 will help Sanders.
June 2
District of Columbia (Primary) Clinton 79-21
Montana (Primary) Sanders 51-45
New Jersey (Primary) Clinton 63-27
New Mexico (Primary) Clinton 52-48
South Dakota (Primary) Clinton 51-49
June 6
Virgin Islands (Caucus) Clinton 87-13
Overall, there’s not much hope I can find for Sanders in this calendar. Because he won’t be able to rack up big wins in caucus states, it’s a rougher road than he faced in 2016, and he was doomed then well before he started reeling off a string of big victories.
I also don’t think Biden is as unpopular as the Clintons were in the prairie and Mountain West, so I doubt Sanders will get as much of a protest vote as he enjoyed four years ago. On the other hand, Biden doesn’t arouse as much excitement as Clinton did, so that cuts the other way.
Sanders has a chance, but it’s not a chance with good odds.
Here in Washington he did indeed crush Clinton at the caucus. But it may be important to note that Washington did have a mail in primary shortly after the caucus (it didn’t count of course, but it was kind of a dry run test for switching to a primary) and Clinton came out ahead in that one.
Yes, I remember that. And it’s a demonstration of why he can’t count on even carrying the former caucus states that he won by massive margins in 2016.
If he can’t walk into the convention with a majority of delegates, or at very least a very strong plurality, he’s done on the second ballot. The Super D’s are hardly going to flock to him. A majority is virtually impossible at this point, and he’s exceedingly unlikely to get much of a plurality, if he gets one at all.
Exactly.
Sanders got most of the youth vote but he was complaining about not enough of them. So my son heard this and immediately commented that the young people don’t pay a lot of attention to what is happening in politics day to day. He went on to say Sanders should be doing something about social media cause that’s what the kids pay attention to. ???????
North Dakota doesn’t have a primary. They have what’s called a Firehouse Caucus. Polls open for 8 hours and you can just fill out your ballot and leave.
Great idea putting this together.