Since I know and fully understand that impassioned supporters of Bernie Sanders are suffering through a sharp period of disappointment and loss, I want to treat this issue with some sensitivity and make sure to back it up with data. After Tuesday’s losses in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri, FiveThirtyEight gives Bernie Sanders a one percent chance of winning enough delegates to win the nomination outright. They give Joe Biden a 99 percent chance of doing so, and they peg April 28 as the most likely date when this will be official. That’s the day that most of the Mid-Atlantic votes, and Biden is heavily favored in those states. He won’t have to win them, though. He’ll probably cross the delegate threshold no later than that day even if he suffers crushing losses in places like New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. If somehow Biden doesn’t reach the magic number on April 28, he’ll get there shortly thereafter. There will be no contested convention. Short of some unforeseen event, like Biden succumbing to the coronavirus, the outcome of this nomination process is no longer in doubt.
This obviously raises the question of whether or not Sanders should continue running for president. An argument in favor of doing so is that he wants as many delegates at the convention as possible so he can influence the platform and any rules changes that could influence future contests. That’s valid. It’s why I voted for Sanders in 2016 even though the nomination was effectively decided by the time I got to cast my ballot.
But arguing against continuing his campaign is that it’s hard to run against an opponent without criticizing them, and the effect will be to harden his base of supporters against Biden. It will also give Trump ammunition which he will use to his advantage in the general election. The time for vetting Biden is over, and tearing him down based on a one percent chance that Sanders can still prevail just doesn’t compute on any risk/reward chart.
Sanders went home to Vermont on Tuesday night to consider his options, and he decided to stay in the race. His comments on this Wednesday were brief, but instructive:
Sanders said Wednesday that he plans to remain in the Democratic presidential race, even as he acknowledged he is losing the fight to convince voters that he is the most electable candidate against President Trump.
“While we are currently losing the delegate count … poll after poll, including exit poll, show that a strong majority of the American people support our progressive agenda,” Sanders said in brief remarks to reporters in Burlington, Vt.
Sanders also underscored his support among young people, and warned Democrats that the party would need to win their support to be competitive in the future.
In a striking admission of failure, Sanders said that “while our campaign has won the ideological debate, we are losing the debate over electability.” And he previewed a round of questions he said he planned to ask Biden at the debate, including queries challenging his plans on health-care and climate change.
There’s nothing inaccurate about what he said. He’s losing the delegate battle despite exit polls showing that Democrats agree with him on Medicare for All and the importance of climate change. He’s also doing astoundingly better than Biden with young voters who the Democrats will need to turnout in the fall. But it does not follow from this that he should continue his campaign and use the upcoming debate in Arizona to highlight disagreements within the party.
Honestly, I did not expect Sanders to drop out. I did hold out a little hope that he might end his campaign, however, considering the circumstances are a bit different from 2016. The biggest difference is obviously the world is currently suffering from a global pandemic, at the World Health Organization just officially declared this afternoon. As a result, the world economy appears to be slipping into a recession. Another difference is that Barack Obama is not in the White House. Donald Trump is, and he’s tearing down our institutions at a rapid clip. With things this unsettled, one of Biden’s strongest selling points is that he can settle things down and get them under control. It would be nice if he could get some consent for that view from within his own party.
These are powerful reasons why Sanders should abandon his near-hopeless effort to win the nomination and de-prioritize maximizing his influence over the convention. He should probably put more thought into how he can maximize his influence on the left and within the Democratic Party going forward, because every criticism of Biden now is going to be met with increasing panic and hostility from everyone who is focused on beating Trump. Even if Biden wins anyway and easily, there will be lasting ill-will against Sanders that will transfer to his supporters.
There is some theoretical benefit to exposing Biden’s weaknesses now so that they’ll be arbitrated and “old news” in the general election. Biden would also benefit from being forced to organize in the states that are still on the calendar. I don’t think Obama would have ever won Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 if Clinton hadn’t remained in the race and forced him to compete in the primaries there. But there was also lasting enmity for Clinton from Obama supporters that carried over to 2016.
I don’t like telling anyone that they should give up their fight, but I really only see Trump benefiting from Sanders’ decision to stay in the race. It will make it harder for Biden to unite the party, to win over the youth vote and Sanders’ partisans, and it will prevent Biden from assuming the role the world needs from him now, which is a reassuring alternative to Trump who can stop this descent into chaos and catastrophe.
I really wish Bernie would reconsider.
Cosign.
The one possible benefit I can think of—and it’s an unlikely scenario—is if Sanders uses the debate to, in effect, de-escalate his differences with Biden, and in so doing, helps speed up the process by which Sanders’ followers get over their disappointment at this bitter loss and turn their energies toward the shared goals of electing Biden, retaking the Senate, and winning as many state legislative bodies as possible in November.
If Bernie asks his questions and makes his arguments at the debate in such a way that Biden can, for the most part, respond, “Yes, as Democrats we all agree on (fill in the blank—the urgency of dealing with climate change, health care for all, helping young people emerge from college debt-free, etc.). And when we served together in the Senate, Bernie, we worked together to (fill in the blank—pass a law, hold hearings, block Republicans from doing something bad). (Or:), when I was Barack’s vice-president, we were able to move part way in that direction; as president I want to make sure we keep moving towards that goal. You and I might have differences about the details of how best to get there, but what’s important is that we unite around those goals.”
Then Sanders gets some love from the media and center-left Democrats. Biden gets praised for acting “presidential” and magnanimous in victory. Some of Sanders’ surrogates and allies (e.g., AOC, Warren) pitch in with the de-escalation campaign, so that his followers feel heard and respected. Some of Biden’s people add their voices to the effort, and so on. Maybe Jesse Jackson can teach Bernie how to give his own, grumpy old Vermonter version of Jackson’s 1988 “Patchwork Quilt” concession speech.
As I said, it’s an unlikely scenario; but if I were in any of the “rooms where it happens” for the Biden/Sanders/DNC camps, that’s what I’d be trying to help orchestrate.
Cosign both. I would add that my dream is that the debate goes as you describe and when Sanders is given his moment to provide a closing statement he walks over to Joe and shakes his hand and says he is suspending his campaign and will work with Joe to defeat Trump. Then they put their arms around each others shoulders, turn to face the cameras. After which they pull out wipes and clean their hands. That would be brilliant theater, and it would be politically smart.
Adding: really interesting reporting on the current mood in the Sanders campaign from Ruby Cramer of Buzzfeed: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/bernie-sanders-democratic-primary-joe-biden-campaign
I’m always somewhat skeptical of stories built mostly on anonymous stories, but the two most interesting things to me were:
1 – that Sanders, unlike 2016, really thought he could—and wanted to—win this time; and,
2 – Sanders didn’t go hard at Biden—or at least, as hard at Biden as his advisers wanted him to—because Biden had always treated him with respect.
Oh dear! We were all concerned that Bernie’s ego wouldn’t allow him to make the best and sensible choice among his palate of available options. I think his behaving this way means that Warren’s endorsement continues to have value to the Biden camp. She should be able to leverage something for it and the time for that is now.
As for Bernie, there’s going to be substantial pressure on him to get out. Not just from mainstream Democrats but within his own camp too. Not the die-hard Bernie bros of course, but from a lot of supporters with more sensible outlooks. Like me, as a single and insignificant example. I’d like to image I’m not the only one.
Of course I was a Warren guy until her campaign imploded. But I cast my vote yesterday for Bernie, as did my wife, after both of us thought long and hard. Our concern was exactly this. That Bernie might hang in too long. On the other hand, had he been able to recover we didn’t want to know that our two votes had been sidelined or were in Biden’s column. But now we’re fully ready to get behind ol’ Joe, even though he’s not our ideal. (Neither was Bernie, by the way.)
Our two votes are of course insignificant but, again, one has to behave as if one’s votes are similar to and representative of many others who are thinking essentially the same thing (and our voting reflects their decision to do likewise); otherwise, democracy wouldn’t work.
I’m hoping saner minds can prevail on Sanders to at least mind his manners and ideally get on board the Biden Express with the rest of us. There’s a huge amount of work to be done and the outcome of this election is by no means certain. Hillary was strong until the Republicans began throwing mud at her. Of course they’re going to do the same with Joe. Thus, the need to coalesce behind a single candidate.
I would like to see the next debate be completely ignored. I believe there will be no live audience – there should be little or no online audience either. No reports, no punditry, no horse race, just nothing at all. Yawn.
Biden will be the Democratic nominee. There is nothing more to say about it until both parties have had their conventions and the election itself gets under way. Meanwhile we have a pandemic and a collapsing economy, so there are other important things to focus on.
Even with Biden the nominee, it’s still a question of the other voices in the party, and how much weight they can bring to bear. With Biden the nominee, that should still be of great concern to us. For example, Sanders and Warren working together will be a lot more potent and better influence on Biden than either one of them singly. We don’t just fold up and say, OK Joe, you’re the candidate, anything you say …
I’ve ignored all the debates so far and see no point in changing my ways.
I will grant that Bernie wants Trump to lose, but that is far from his real top priority which is launching a revolution.
He hates the “Democratic establishment” and does not care much about the Democratic party either.
So he will keep trying to launch his revolution, taking a long view now that he has no chance to personally win.
Forget about appealing to the better angels of his nature, of which there are not all that many. So he will keep going through April.
Sadly, that seems to be the reality.
To say that Bernie’s motivation is hatred for the ‘Democratic establishment'” is on the same level of “reality” as saying that the House impeached Trump because they hate Trump.
Hatred is too strong but he is definitely stubborn about this. His chances are over and it is time for him to quit, just quit, Warren is not likely to endorse him. There is no help coming and so his revolution will have to be carried outside his aspirations to be president.
You don’t get my point. Whether you agree with him or not, Bernie is motivated by an attempt to right what he sees as wrongs, identifying certain actors as perpetuating those wrongs, with a perspective on the country not himself — He’s not motivated by an emotional vendetta using “justice” as some phony rationalization. Just like the House was not motivated by a personal hatred against Trump (as they were constantly accused of), but by its constitutional duty.
Bernie is now a pest. He has a ,, what was that…. a one percent chance of winning and most of the population is now more concerned with the virus, a virulent disease that will infect millions and maybe even kill millions. No one is coming to save him, not even Warren. His stubbornness will cause him to lose friends. Meanwhile the idiot in chief keeps babbling and setting out silly ideas. We need to address that issue. Maybe we should impeach him again.
Agreed with others here, Bernie needs to declare victory for getting his ideas into the mainstream of Democratic politics and then bow out. Tell his supporters to vote for Biden, even if reluctantly. And, work downballot to get more progressive Democrats and independents elected.
His “revolution” won’t be won top-down. Electing progressives in local and state races is equally as important.