I really couldn’t take anymore bad news by 2pm so I lay down to take a nap. Apparently, it did not help. When I awoke, I learned that we had the worst day on Wall Street since Black Monday in 1987, the NCAA cancelled March Madness, Major League Baseball cancelled spring training and postponed Opening Day by two weeks, Broadway shut down, and my son’s soccer club is shuttered until at least late March. Strangely, his school has so far refused to follow suit even though nearby districts are closing.
It looks like Mitch McConnell realized that it would be bad politics to go ahead with a week-long recess under these circumstances. But that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily going to do anything. After all, he opposes the bill the House Democrats have drawn up.
Given investors’ avowed desire for a policy response — and Donald Trump’s abiding concern for the well-being of the stock market — it always seemed more likely than not that McConnell’s purported plan to tackle coronavirus after recess was a negotiating tactic. The Senate Majority Leader might have felt that the threat of a full week of inaction would be sufficient to force Democrats to cave on increasing Medicaid funding, or requiring employers to foot the bill for paid leave. But even as a bluff, McConnell’s stance was insane. It’s hard to imagine a more politically toxic talking point than, “Democrats may want to take immediate action on this public health emergency, but the Republican Party believes it is entitled to a weeklong break before tackling such a demanding project.” And anyhow, it’s unclear why threatening a delay would give Republicans leverage; as the party in control of the White House, the GOP has far more to lose politically from a deepening economic and epidemiological crisis than Nancy Pelosi’s caucus does. Evidently, McConnell now understands this.
It’s clear that no one has any confidence in President Trump, but today’s drop in the stock market shows that people have no faith in the Federal Reserve either. Overall, the Fed promised to pump over a trillion dollars into the economy and it did not stop the slide.
I found this article helpful for explaining the merits of shutting everything down. You might want to share it with any skeptics you know. But, even if it makes sense, I don’t know how we can avoid a massive contraction of the global economy. Maybe this will be a chance for this country to come together for a change. It’s the only hopeful thought I can offer right now.
As for my mood, I slapped on Napoleon Dynamite, and I feel better already.
Sounds like you and I are in the same mental place. On the plus side, working from home and being as non-social as possible here in the Seattle epicenter means I can catch up on a lot of TV and movies I missed over the last few years!
Local stores are cleared out of perishable food. This despite only a single reported case in my county in western NY who self-quarantined.
For your final point, nah, Fox News will make sure their flock doesn’t take this seriously. Despite the deadly consequences that Fox’s elderly viewership will not prepare for. Come to think of it, the oldest person I saw out tonight was mid 50’s. Lots of younger folks stocking up for some likely time stuck at home.
If the Dow Jones futures are any indicator, it looks like Friday the 13th will be another rough day for equities. The Fed’s pretty much out of ammo, and it’s obvious. Other than going into negative interest rate territory, what’s left? I talked to a number of folks where I worked who had seen the Trump debacle last night. Made some mention of it in front of some students in class during a break. My impression is that regardless of ideology (my students are probably generally Republicans), Trump fell short, and probably his saying anything was worse than doing nothing. The US government had a two month head start to get things in place like testing kits, and did squat. The chickens are coming home to roost, and more and more people are realizing that. Biden and Sanders both sound more Presidential than Trump right now. Pelosi too.
I was able to get a lot of what I needed yesterday, and I’m heading out for more in an hour.
But this is going to fucking suck balls, and I am so angry right now. Stage crew work was already slow due to the time of year, now it’s collapsed. I had two paying gigs coming up that I desperately needed, and they’re canceled. I got an offer to substitute teach in Nashville schools… and the schools are closed until next week at least.
Still waiting to hear back from the US census.
There’s pretty much nothing the Federal Reserve can do in response to this crisis. This isn’t an issue of credit access. Economically we’re going to see a crash in demand like most have never seen in living memory. Even fiscal stimulus (a great and necessary idea) will not curb it; what are people going to buy? Who are the people who are going to be buying things? Groceries, medical supplies, and medical services are only a fraction of the economy.
The need for stimulus is to ensure that folks unable to work, operate businesses, pay rent, etc. can continue to survive.