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Why Do People Think Trump Will Be Reelected?
Discussion
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He “has a history of doing better at the ballot box than he does in surveys,” but that history is tied entirely to a span of 9 months in 2016. If anything, the experience of living in Trumpistan (including 2018) would suggest that whatever the hell happened in 2016, it’s unlikely to repeat. Elections with incumbents are almost always referenda on that incumbent. Just because he drew an inside straight in 2016, lots of people seem to think it will happen again. I’d call it recency bias, but that’s only if you erase 2018 (which a lot of people seem… Read more »
It concerns me that the media is playing the sexual allegations in a way that isn’t at all skeptical even while continuing to give Trump a free pass on the numerous more credible allegations against him. Not sure Biden can overcome the media’s many biases.
1. because as already mentioned the corporate media will again be on Trump’s side, or most of it anyway
2. because every state with a Republican governor is going to cheat like they’ve never cheated before to keep Dem voters from turning out, or disqualifying them for something bogus, or just not counting honestly.
3. because when they steal the election we’ll get zero help from courts packed with Mitch McConnell’s judges
We heard the same exact thing in 2018 and the Dems won 40 seats. One also has to remember the context in which the next presidential election will be taking place in. We are on a pace to have a hundred thousand dead Americans by sometime in June. Most likely 150,000 by August, and it is very possible we might be near 200,000 dead Americans come election day. Moreover, we almost certainly will have somewhere in the range of 10 to 15% unemployment come election day. It is very difficult of me to conceive that when people ask themselves the… Read more »
It’s not surprising that people feel that Trump could win, even if he’s behind in the polls. a) Thats what happened last time. b) The US political system is biased toward Republicans. (See: The right-wing media, the electoral college, the supreme court, citizen’s united,…). c) Democrats are expert at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (See: Al Franken, “but her emails!”; and now Tara Reade) d) Fuck the New York Times political desk. Just please do us all a favor and fire them. With all these negatives baked in the cake, what we have going for us may not… Read more »
I find the notion that Trump supporters are somehow embarrassed to openly display their support for Trump to pollsters or to whomever absolutely ridiculous. Part of being a Trump supporter is taking pride in and making overt shows of, the fact that you are a douchebag. Being a contemporary Republican and thus a Trump supporter means taking pride in being a dick. The notion that they’re somehow embarrassed to convey that to the rest of the world is absurd.
I’m curious, is there any tangible evidence that Trump supporter’s cooperation level with pollsters is low, or that they purposely lie to them? Or is this a conclusion people draw to try and explain polling errors? It seems like this idea has become conventional wisdom, and I just don’t recall seeing where it has been proven, only inferred. Is there any data to support this idea of low cooperation?
Two recent polls show Biden tied with Trump in Texas. Yes: Texas. So maybe we should drop the hangdog, ‘Oh Biden is the wrong guy,’ nonsense and get behind him.
When bad things are happening, it’s human nature to believe bad things will continue to happen.
I think that 2016 caused a lot of people to question not only their assumptions about their relatives, friends, and neighbors, but also their own sense of reality. If you “felt” that Clinton would win, based on all available data, and she didn’t, that self-doubt could continue through 2018 and into the current campaign.