In my years as a political writer and prognosticator, I’ve come across many models that purport to predict who will win a presidential election irrespective of the particular candidates involved. I’ve seen countless retrospective pieces that argue that candidate x had virtually no chance against candidate y due to conditions outside of their control. Pollsters ask certain questions, like the right direction/wrong direction query, to establish the mood of the electorate, but they also look at GDP growth, the unemployment level, differential base enthusiasm, and other metrics. They look at the advantage of incumbency versus the difficulty of one party winning more than two elections in a row.
Some of these models have a good track record, although they always suffer from small sample sizes since we only hold presidential elections every four years. For that reason, the idiosyncrasies of the cycles and the candidates always need to be considered. Barack Obama was a far better campaigner than John Kerry, and Bill Clinton was more gifted on the stump than Michael Dukakis, but Kerry might have won in 2008 and Dukakis might have won in 1992.
Over time, the shape of the two parties’ bases evolve, and this also needs to be considered. Currently, the Republicans do best with older voters. This has helped them squeak out victories in Florida in 2000, 2004, and 2016 that were critical to their success. But older voters are not feeling very positive about Donald Trump at the moment. Not only are they the most vulnerable population to the Covid-19 virus, but they can see their children or grandchildren. They can’t engage in their normal social and recreational activities.
Older Americans are profoundly uncomfortable, unhappy, and stressed at the moment, and this ought to be considered in much the same way that we look at economic metrics as a predictor of presidential election outcomes. A president has minimal impact on the overall business cycle, but we recognize that they can be both the victims or the beneficiaries of chance and fortune. Poppy Bush and John McCain had recessions hit at the wrong moment, and it made people less inclined to vote for them. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton’s reelection efforts were assisted by good economic conditions. Donald Trump is going to have a problem with older voters for the same reason. We can point to his missteps in handling the crisis, but even a president who was credited for doing a good job would take a big hit with any population that is in a foul mood.
The same can be said for people who are still in the workforce who have lost their jobs or businesses, but Trump seems to be more aware of this problem. It’s why he’s pushing so hard to reopen the economy without appropriate regard for the advice of health professionals. He feels like 20 percent unemployment will doom him even if he succeeds in limiting the death toll. But even if this were a tradeoff that would actually work (and it isn’t), the strategy ignores how it impacts older voters. And Trump needs these older voters to support him in big numbers if he wants to win Florida and several other critical states.
If Trump had pursued the New Zealand model, he wouldn’t be in this position. The way to protect both the economy and his political fortunes was to shut everything down quickly and ramp up testing and contact tracing. Since he failed to take that approach, he has fallen decisively behind Joe Biden in the polls, and faces a profoundly stressed electorate. The metrics are going to predict a loss based on economic conditions alone, but erosion with his elderly base should also present a near insurmountable barrier to success.
Having barely won in 2016 in near-miraculous fashion, Trump’s path to reelection was always going to be perilous, but given he was impeached and has mobilized his opponents at every opportunity, he was always going to be dependent on a strong economy to carry him through. Prior to the outbreak, many models looked good for him for precisely this reason, but it blinded him when the time came to manage this crisis. It’s still blinding him. He cannot will a good economy back into existence.
He wants to kill older Americans in the name of “the economy”. Stupid, stupid, stupid. One, older Americans have way more money than younger Americans, and those giant RV’s with a Harley in back ain’t cheap or in any way necessary. Two, those older folks are choosing between their still healthy 401k’s and their lives. Money doesn’t do a dead person any good. Three, older Americans vote. All the time. Four, their heirs are going to be sitting on any inherited money for healthcare, daycare, and an emergency fund. Five, the younger Americans already hate Trump. Getting more off the couch because his lack of policy killed Mom/Dad/Grandma/Grandpa is not good policy or good politics for him.
Paraphrasing a bit: Please proceed, Mr. President.
I hate that I qualify as an old person now. At 66, I try hard to rationalize that I’m not included when I read about the effect of coronavirus on those over 60. I’m not happy with anybody who is making it more likely that I will get COVID-19 one of these days. We definitely care about the stock market as well, since it affects our 401k and what sort of retirement we will have. I would not be happy with Trump under any circumstances, but we old people will definitely not be happy on Nov 3 if the virus is still a threat and our retirement accounts are still worth half what they should be.
The pandemic has exposed a vulnerability for Trump: heretofore reliably Republican older voters tend to get their news from relatively mainstream sources. They’re more likely to read newspapers, listen to public radio (especially in rural areas), and watch evening news broadcasts by the major network than their middle-aged children are. As a result, they’re less likely to exist wholly within the ideological bubble of Facebook algorithms, Twitter bots, Fox News and OANN.
I am not at all sure Trump is in great peril. He has the problem of the economy but the markets could quickly turn around so that the stock market and employment looks very good or,acceptable by November. The 100k plus death is mostly older people and that will not be forgotten by their families. And if there is a follow on it will surely kill his chances. But as it is now, I believe he will handle it.. Biden is also a factor. He can barely handle softball questions. He seems to blubber his answers. And so he stays out of sight. Obama helps him for now. And Trump and Faux News will surely attack him hard. All in all I think it is too early to call.Watch the trends of covd and the markets.
Not gonna take Trump’s defeat for granted. Anything can happen. That said, his strategy has been perplexing. I think he could have walked to reelection by taking up the kinds of reforms the country would have gotten behind. He had the GOP by the balls and didn’t need to acquiesce to their plutocratic demands.
Second big question is why he didn’t play the hero and mobilize the economy for testing and contract tracing. He would have been hailed as a war president and the economy might actually be starting to correct now. As things are I don’t believe a correction of any significance likely. And if it were to happen, there will likely be a second wave that would require a second lock down.
Clearly the man’s not very bright and clearly he doesn’t listen to his advisers. Either that or he’s surrounded himself with idiots. Or both.
I’m 78. True, I grew up in a progressive.activist milieu but it was grounded in traditional American values. I think many in my generation rightly regard Trump as a threat to those values and fear–as I do–for their grandchildren’s future. It’s a matter of legacy.
Don’t think for a moment, by the way, that I’m pleased to have a member of my generation as the Democratic standard bearer, though–I know what it’s like to be old and increasingly mistrustful of one’s capabilities. I’d also prefer that the next President approach the position anticipating that he/she will live for decades in his/her own aftermath.
So Joe ain’t the perfect candidate for me but he is well positioned to make the case that Trump is trashing the America we invested so much to build, defend, improve and leave to succeeding generations.