For the second night in a row, protests against the murder of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police have broken out and resulted in widespread disorder, property damage, injuries and even death. Too many things have come together at once, and the country has finally succumbed to an accumulation of stresses and indignities.
We can start with the main thing, which is a constant drip-drip-drip of black and brown folks losing their lives at the hands of cops who then face minimal accountability. Then we have a president who has done nothing but insult minorities and embrace white nationalism for the last four years. Add in forty million people losing their jobs overnight with a nation living under fear in a global health pandemic that most impacts blacks and people living in dense urban communities. Finally, add in some nice weather that incentivizes already stir-crazy people to disregard basic health advice and abandon social distancing.
This all created a tinderbox, and now our cities are revolting against civilian authority. There are credible reports that white nationalists and even some rogue police officers have been acting as provocateurs, seeing a political advantage for the right in creating a white backlash against the disorder and disrespect.
Trump was clearly heading for a humiliating political defeat at the beginning of last week. Now things are not so clear. Now there’s a debate about whether the non-urban parts of the country will respond the same way they did to the riots during Lyndon Johnson’s president and seek protection from the right, or they’ll turn even harder against Trump because he’s in charge and they’re even more desperate for change. One thing is clear if nothing else. The demographics of the country are different today than they were in 1968.
But if this is a revolt against Trumpism, it’s also a revolt against Democratic leadership. The mayors of these cities are all Democrats, and the same is true of most of the governors and attorneys general. If they’re unable to reestablish order, the party will pay a heavy price.
This spasm of protest isn’t politically strategic in any traditional red/blue sense, but more of a rejection that either side is likely to produce satisfactory answers. Anyone who thinks they can easily turn it to the advantage of their side of the political divide is being too optimistic.
As for Minneapolis, they have not handled this well. Waiting until their city was ablaze to arrest the main cop (and only the main cop) responsible for George Floyd’s murder sent the message that riots are both necessary and effective, but still not sufficient. This contributed to riots breaking out all across the country on Friday night.
Since order must be restored, the sympathies will quickly turn back to the police if the rioting persists. That’s not only what Trump is hoping for, but it’s possibly his only hope of being reelected.
But it’s not just the right that needs to get the message. People aren’t looking for the status quo ante and it’s not going to be enough to promise to go back to a time before Trump.
Meanwhile, the total disregard for social distancing involved in these protests will almost assuredly result in a spike in Covid-19 cases in our cities, making it harder for the country to resume normal economic activities. This will make Trump look like a fool, but it will also keep everyone under the kind of stress that caused this convulsion in the first place.
The stakes were already sky-high in this election year, but now they’re astronomical.
I was beginning to allow myself to feel hopeful about election prospects in November, but that was obviously a fool’s optimism. This turn of events will not help either Democrats or people of color if it continues. Apparently law enforcement has become an armed right-wing militia, and our President has spent the last 3 years painting a target on the back of *all* minorities, including women of any color (who are not even a *minority*). And authorized rules of engagement will only get more violent if the urban lawlessness continues. The center is not holding. Also, MAGA has a presidential invitation to come to DC to defend the White House tonight. Has the civil war started? Hard to believe that just a couple of years ago our biggest worry was whether health insurance would continue to cover pre-existing conditions.
I don’t think this helps trump. If trump were Romney or Cruz, then sure. But trump himself is chaos. This situation is chaotic. More trump doesn’t bring the calm the older and suburban voters want after November. The type desire that is causing them to back Biden. I suspect they want all of this shit, trump included, to go away.
When Biden won several primaries without even campaigning for the vote, I realized a collective decision was made and an early millennial/late gen x-er such as myself, is not part of that process. I’m okay with that. The majority Id of the country wants a reset on trump. Nothing from the last 3 days has changed that from what I can tell.
You make a really good point. Trump spells chaos. Of course the Rs will try to spin themselves as the law and order party to frightened white folks. But things have changed so much since 1968, I’d be careful about imagining a similar result. Of course anything that shuffles the deck when your guy is up by 8 points in not ideal. All four officers should have been arrested. Three for standing by and watching a murder. And the guy kneeling should have been murder 1. At least charge him with that. It may not stick but other charges can be fall backs for the jury. There’s no scenario under which what everyone witnessed can be interpreted as good faith policing. The woman who took the video deserves a medal for standing up to the cops threatening her.
The thought that keeps going through my mind. If anyone starts talking “law and order”, the answer is that what the cops are doing is neither law nor order.
When all is said and done I don’t think this effects the election at all. The bottom line is we’re still in May, and the election is in November. What seems like the most important all-encompassing news story in the universe today, is almost forgotten about within two to three weeks. That’s how fast the news cycle moves. I’m not saying this should be forgotten, just that eventually it will be. Remember how we all spent endless hours contemplating eagerly just how impeachment might effect the election. Will it help the Democrats? Will it help the Republicans? Well, that seems like it was about 10,000 years ago and will have zero effect on the election.
Meanwhile, while no one was looking the number of covid-19 deaths has now reached almost 106,000. The number of infections is now over 1.8 million (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/). By election day, the number of deaths will certainly be somewhere around 200,000, the number of infections will certainly be close to 3 million, and the unemployment rate is almost certainly to be at 10% at best. Could he win with that being the situation? I guess it’s possible but highly unlikely.
We will have 200k deaths by September. Bank on it. And with the protests, it’ll inevitably he higher than that. So I imagine 300k by the election at a minimum.
We have been warned again. Nice thoughts and prayers and self righteous exclamations and rage are not good enough. More is needed. Something real is needed. Pay attention Joe. Pay attention.
The police attacked a lot of reporters all across the country over the weekend. From national news to local news, reporters who are PoC or women were attacked while white male reporters were treated noticeably better. Add Trump calling for more police violence, and I suspect the press is going to be adversarial to a “law and order” message. That message means they, the neutral observers, are going to get further beat up by doing their jobs. I think the police made enemies of the press this weekend, so anything that makes them safer is going to get ground into their coverage going forward. I’m hoping that means not trusting police, and being unconsciously biased against the “tough on crime” policies that now classify them as criminals too.