Month: May 2020

Jonathan Last of Bulwark has collected some of the more batshit insane theories about the coronavirus that are circulating on the right, and they are frightening to read. You might be surprised to learn from Rudy Giuliani that Anthony Fauci is responsible for the outbreak because he personally “gave $3.7 million to the Wuhan laboratory” where it supposedly originated and therefore “we paid for the damn virus that’s killing us.”

The saner theory, which is based in fact, is that U.S. Embassy in Beijing asked the Trump administration to give more money to that lab so they could make the facility secure, and they got turned down. Also, the Intelligence Community says they have no proof that the virus was created in that facility or that it escaped from there. Yet, if it did, that would be another example of Trump not listening to experts rather than proof that Anthony Fauci is responsible. Giuliani is taking something embarrassing and turning it around to deflect blame away from the president.

The One America News network (OAN) prefers to cast a wider net.

Recent reports claim the remdesivir patent is controlled by mainland China, Bill Gates, and the WHO, while the Clintons may have a stake in it as well.

The entire cover-up is allegedly backed by globalist billionaire George Soros.

Remdesivir is a drug in development that might serve as a treatment for Covid-19, so I guess the theory here is that a bunch of “globalists” started a pandemic on purpose which shut down international travel and disrupted international commerce so they could make a bunch of money off a patent.

Then there’s the anti-vaccination crowd which has a variety of nutty theories, including that Anthony Fauci has been so effective in developing vaccines that he’s rendered our immune systems helpless to fight the novel coronavirus.

For Last, however, the most interesting development comes from the group that is opposed to wearing masks.

If you want to end the lockdown immediately, then you will want to take any nominal precautions that will allow reopening as quickly as possible. Wearing a mask is a low-cost, high-benefit way to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, and hence make it possible to ease restrictions while lowering the chances of another outbreak.

But in reality, that is not what we’ve seen.

The people opposed to wearing masks are all in the camp that wants to open the economy now, irrespective of whether the scientists advise that it is safe.  Last’s explanation isn’t bad: “As America’s decadence has increased over the last 30 or so years…we have become—just objectively speaking—a less serious country.”

Perhaps this is a long-term trend, but the least serious person in the country is certainly the president. After Anthony Fauci testified to the Senate HELP committee this week that school’s are not necessarily going to be safe to open in the fall and that children are not immune to the effects of the virus, Trump said, “Look, [Fauci] wants to play all sides of the equation. I was surprised by his answer actually, because, you know, it’s just to me – it’s not an acceptable answer, especially when it comes to schools.” He added that “the only thing that would be acceptable” is giving older teachers and professors a few more weeks before they return “because this is a disease that attacks age, and it attacks health.”

According to the Financial Times, Trump believes that scientists exaggerate at the time, which is why he refused to ramp up testing or order ventilators. Rather, he took Jared Kushner’s advice that such precautions were unnecessary and would spook the stock markets.

On Thursday, Trump is celebrating a ruling by the Wisconsin Supreme Court which takes power away from the governor to manage the outbreak.

The Great State of Wisconsin, home to Tom Tiffany’s big Congressional Victory on Tuesday, was just given another win. Its Democrat Governor was forced by the courts to let the State Open. The people want to get on with their lives. The place is bustling!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 14, 2020

He is thereby betting heavily that Wisconsinites won’t have reason to rue this ruling when they go to the polls in November. In Pennsylvania, Governor Tom Wolf is doing what he can to make sure people know who to blame. Speaking of county executives who have defied his stay-at-home orders, Wolf remarked, “To those politicians who decide to cave in to this coronavirus, they need to understand the consequences of their cowardly act.”

There’s a reason that all this defiance is coming from the right. President Trump may have made a show of listening to his experts during his daily reality show Coronavirus Task Force press briefings, but he’s sent a clear message that he doesn’t believe that outbreak is as serious as they say and that the economy should not be in lockdown. He’s the leader here and he’s giving permission and encouragement to his followers to pursue every conspiracy theory and break every law.

Ipsos polling now shows Trump in thirties in his matchup with Biden, and I hope that is correct. I want to believe this country hasn’t become so decadent that it can’t be saved in November.

I don’t care what your grievances are or what you think you’re fighting for, if you shoot up a maternity ward, it’s guaranteed that your movement is evil and your goals are illegitimate. That’s what happened in Kabul on Tuesday:

…three militants stormed a hospital in Kabul soon after 10 a.m. on Tuesday, shooting new mothers dead before the newborns in their arms had even seen the light outside the hospital. At least 15 people were killed inside the hospital — mothers, babies, medical workers, and one police officer.

As of this writing, the Taliban has denied responsibility and no one else has claimed this foul act, but it’s clearly some radical Sunni group.

The attack in Kabul, the capital, targeted a 100-bed hospital in the western part of the city, a largely Shiite area often hit by Islamic State bombers.

The hospital is known for its large maternity ward, which is supported by Doctors Without Borders. During the five-hour operation to kill the three assailants, Afghan special forces were seen rescuing newborn babies. NATO troops were also seen at the site.

The details are just as horrible as you would expect:

Crowds gathered outside the hospital and emotions ran high as they saw babies soaked in blood. A security official coming out of the hospital showed reporters pictures of the devastation inside the ward: mothers shot as they had tried to hide under a bed, a female nurse prostrate in blood, one woman still clinging to her newborn. “She was dead, but the baby was alive,” the official said.

The relatives of one woman who had given birth at dawn were trying to get news. The woman’s brother wailed and twisted in pain as other relatives tried to calm him. “Oh, God, oh God,” was all he could say as he kept crying.

“She had given birth already when the suicide bombers entered,” said Rafiullah, the woman’s brother in law.

A community elder came out of the hospital with a list of a dozen newborns who had been evacuated to other hospitals. As he read the names of their mothers — these had been written on pieces of tape on the babies’ stomachs, he said — and the names of the hospitals the babies had been sent to, a man from the anxious crowd asked about the mothers.

“Fifteen martyred mothers,” said the community elder, Abdul Hadi. “Their bodies are in the ambulances being evacuated now. We put them in body bags.”

Afghanistan isn’t immune to the coronavirus, although the outbreak there doesn’t seem to especially strong yet. In any case, they’re not experiencing any downtick in violence due to people staying at home or social distancing.

It was foolish to think we could bring stability to this region, let alone prosperity. But I don’t think it’s wrong to wish that some day soon Afghanistan will see peace.

We’ve never had a situation before where a presidential nominee has promised to pick a running mate of a certain gender. Joe Biden has understandable reasons for ruling out any men, but the decision drastically narrowed the field of options. CNN reports that the Covid-19 outbreak may have narrowed it even further.

Several governors who have gained attention on the frontlines of the coronavirus fight are also getting a potential look. Biden has repeatedly shined a spotlight on Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, but Democrats close to him believe at least two others are also seen as possible contenders: Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico.

But it’s an open question whether a governor would even be able to seriously entertain an offer, given the crushing demands of leading their states through a pandemic and economic collapse. None have been tested on the national stage or put through the rigors of a presidential race and Democrats close to the process believe the status of the coronavirus in each state will be a factor in whether leaders like Whitmer, Raimondo or Lujan Grisham could be picked.

Even Whitmer, who has drawn the most attention because of Michigan’s intense battle with coronavirus, is ultimately seen by many people close to Biden as a longshot. “Yes, she’s incredibly talented, but could she take the job now?” one Biden adviser not involved in the search said.

I confess that this particular consideration had not occurred to me. In general, I think governors make better presidential candidates than members of Congress, and the same is true for running mates. This seems especially true in modern times because Congress has been persistently unpopular for decades now, and a voting record on any contentious topic is likely to limit the potential breadth of any candidate’s appeal. While Washington DC has become completely polarized and ticket-splitting for federal candidates has almost disappeared, we still see blue governors in red states and red governors in blue states on a regular basis.

Meanwhile, governors across the nation are experiencing a surge of polling approval as voters look for leadership in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. Regardless of the cycle, governors are basically mini-presidents who carry out many of the same executive duties as a president, so their experience is more relevant to the job.

Based on these factors, I’d strongly advise Biden to select a governor, but it’s true that we now have to consider the governors’ records on the coronavirus, which can change quickly and unpredictably as states experience new spikes in cases. We also have to worry that even a governor who is popular at home and has a better-than-average record on handling the pandemic will look like their shirking their job if they put their focus on running a national campaign.

This also argues for a later decision point for Biden. A candidate that looks rock-solid today might look hapless and helpless in the fall if their state experiences a major upsurge in Covid-19 cases, or if their economies sputter relative to other states. It’s less risky to make a final assessment in July than in May.

There are some senators who could make a lot of sense for Biden. Elizabeth Warren could help unite the party, while Kamala Harris could boost excitement and help black turnout. Harry Reid has been lobbying for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada to create excitement and help Latinx turnout. Amy Klobuchar could amplify his brand and have some crossover appeal and strength in key Midwest states.

If Biden wants to look further, he can go for mayors (like Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta who has been recommended by Jim Clyburn) or members of the House (like impeachment manager Val Demings of Florida), and he’s appearing on Thursday with Stacey Abrams who endorsed him on Tuesday. She’s never held a political position higher than Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives, but she ran a compelling race for governor and has boatloads of oratorical skill and charisma.

All of these options must be fully vetted, of course, but only the governors are a serious risk due to the coronavirus. As of today, the pandemic actually gives governors an edge, but it could work against them, too.

After weeks of heaviness, here’s something a bit more light-hearted, via John Oliver:

Enjoy some cats.

There will be a special election on Tuesday in California’s 25th congressional district. The vacancy occurred when freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill resigned amid revelations that she had an extramarital affair with a 22-year old staffer prior to being elected. Hill’s seat was one of seven that the Democrats won from the Republicans in California in the 2018 midterm elections. The 25th District was traditionally red, but Hillary Clinton won it in 2016 by seven points, and Hill defeated incumbent Steve Knight by nine points in 2018.

There are indications that the Republicans will retake the seat in the special election. The two candidates are Democratic assemblywoman Christy Smith and Republican veteran and businessman Mike Garcia. Most polling has been internal and private, but reports are that Garcia has had a narrow lead. The early return of ballots also looks promising for Garcia, although FiveThirtyEight warns against making too much of that:

About 118,000 ballots had been returned as of May 11, according to Political Data, Inc, and at first blush, they bode well for Garcia — registered Republicans have cast 44.5 percent of them versus 35.6 percent by Democrats, plus 20.0 percent by independents or other parties. But these figures aren’t all that different from the ballots that had been returned the day before the March 3 contest, when registered Republicans had cast 45.0 percent of ballots compared to 36.6 percent by Democrats, plus 18.4 percent by others. Yet in the first round of voting, the Democratic candidates combined to win 51 percent of the vote, while Republicans won 49 percent.

Nathan L. Gonzales of Roll Call, suggests that the stakes are higher for the Republicans:

Garcia, a retired Navy pilot who flew combat missions in Iraq, is widely regarded as the better candidate. Even though Smith represents more than half of the district in the Legislature, she’s made mistakes (including downplaying Garcia’s military service in a video town hall meeting), while Garcia has been able to keep up in fundraising…

…A Smith victory would be demoralizing for Republicans. Even though it’s not the type of district Republicans have to win for a new majority, they have the better candidate, a strong contrast, and the consistent lead in the polls. To fall short now would be close to a disaster at this point.

Gonzales also points out that, should Garcia win, he will instantly become the most vulnerable Republican in the House of Representatives. The dynamics that might help him win in May are unlikely to be present in November when he will face Smith again.  It won’t as much of a challenge for the Democrats to turn out low-propensity voters with Trump and Biden on the ballot.

So, in a sense, it may not really matter how the special election turns out. It won’t change how the House operates in the short-term and a Republican victory may be temporary. Presumably, Garcia’s chances of winning in November will be enhanced if he has the advantage of a few months of incumbency, but otherwise the main importance of the outcome will be in how it is perceived and how that impacts the behaviors of various political actors.

The perception will also be informed by a special election being held on Tuesday in Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district. This is a traditionally blue seat that was represented by the legendary legislator David Obey for decades before his retirement in 2011. Trump won it by 20 points in 2016. If the Democrats carry it in the special election, that will create a five-alarm fire with Republican lawmakers all across the country and many will seek to distance themselves from the president. Even a narrow win for the GOP candidate could have much the same effect.

Sometimes special elections are harbingers of what will come in the next general election, but that is not always the case, as Gonzales notes:

Remember Republicans won a high-profile special election in Georgia’s 6th District in 2017 and lost 40 seats (including Georgia’s 6th) the following year. Going further back, Democrats won a competitive special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th District in May 2010, six months before they lost 63 seats.

The results won’t necessarily help us figure out who will win in November, but they should have one of two consequences. Either they will spook the Republicans and create a wedge between them and their president or they will give the Republicans new confidence and cause them to cling to the president more tightly than ever.

I don’t think it’s normal when “nearly 2000 former Justice Department officials” sign onto a letter calling for the Attorney General of the United States to resign, but that’s exactly what just happened. William Barr’s decision to intervene in the sentencing of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn would be bad enough, but attempting to drop the case when the man already accepted a deal and pleaded guilty is a bridge too far.

This follows the Justice Department’s appalling intervention in Roger Stone’s sentencing which caused all four prosecutors handling the case with withdraw and for Jonathan Kravis to outright resign. We’ve basically reached the end game now, where Trump has to reckon with the possibility that he won’t be reelected. It’s not going too far to say that most of the legal establishment that existed when Trump was sworn in believes he should be in prison. If Trump doesn’t clean things up before he goes–if he goes–there’s a good chance that he’ll spend his last days behind bars.

That’s not the only reason we’re seeing this insane and unprecedented behavior from the Justice Department. William Barr is trying desperately to help Trump get reelected. The two things are highly correlated, but they’re still distinct.

It’s true that getting reelected will make all Trump’s legal problems go away, but part of getting reelected is having the ability to change the narrative about his first term. If they can make the whole effort to investigate his Russian connections look corrupt and illegitimate, then he can improve his chances. He’d also like to avoid having to issue highly self-serving pardons if he can, at least until after November. So, making convictions go away or lessening their impact on the defendants will both help to keep them quiet and limit how much damage he takes on during this clean-up exercise.

He doesn’t have much margin for error, and he’s reportedly “glum and shell-shocked” by the polling he’s seeing. These drastic and desperate moves are raising the stakes of the election because if he gets away with them it will fundamentally alter and weaken our system of laws. The more he challenges our norms, the harsher the pushback and the more likely it is that he’ll pay a heavy price if he loses.

There’s definitely a bias in our country against retaliating against prior administrations, but Trump is taking things so far that he’s shattering the one norm that would protect him. Simply restoring the integrity of our institutions, including our legal system, will require that he answer for what he’s done. Every unprecedented move he makes is increasing his peril, which makes him act even more like a cornered and dangerous rat.

Alan Alda’s character in Crimes and Misdemeanors is supposed to be arrogant and insufferable, but I always thought he had at least a small point when he argued that comedy is tragedy plus time. You can make jokes about 9/11 today, but it’s hard to say how much time had to pass before it was permissible to treat that day with anything but solemnity.

As he said, “If it bends, it’s funny; if it breaks, it’s not funny.” That’s how I feel about a lot of things right now. For example, on Friday, the Washington Post wrote:

Inside the West Wing, some officials talk about the federal government’s mitigation mission as largely accomplished because they believe the nation’s hospitals are now equipped to meet anticipated demand — even as health officials warn the number of coronavirus cases could increase considerably in May and June as more states and localities loosen restrictions…

And on Monday, CNN reported:

Trump administration officials spent the weekend scrambling as they attempted to do contact tracing for Katie Miller, Vice President Mike Pence’s press secretary who tested positive for coronavirus last week.

But they had not identified who Miller contracted the virus from as of Sunday, raising concerns inside the White House about how to contain the outbreak. Some aides expressed concern at how Monday would proceed without greater clarity on how the virus had originated and spread.

When I see those two pieces of reporting side by side, my first reaction is to bust out laughing. It almost reminds me of the “There’s always a tweet” meme, where it seems that people can always find a Donald Trump tweet from the past that contradicts or undermines whatever he is trying to say in the present.

Here the White House is trying to convince itself that it’s contained the viral outbreak and it’s safe for people to return to business as usual, but no sooner than they begin to implement this policy than they discover that their own workplace is unsafe. They tell us that we don’t need to do widespread testing and that an army of contact tracers are not needed, but the first thing they do when the virus shows up in the White House is attempt to do contact tracing. And the effort is unsuccessful.

This kind of karmic comeuppance would be funny, just as it’s funny to compare Trump’s past tweets to his current positions, except that the consequences are catastrophic. The initial response might be a guffaw as the cosmic irony of it all bends our sense of humor. But, after a moment of reflection, the laughs disappear. The joke breaks up on the shoals of seriousness.

Conservatives often need to learn from direct experience. Climate change isn’t serious until your vacation property is inundated by flood waters. Public health investment is a waste until your wife comes down with leukemia. Gay marriage is an abomination until it’s your daughter who wants to get married. School shootings are not an urgent problem until one happens in your community. The same applies here to the White House and their experience with the coronavirus.

Reality has punched them right in their lying mouths and exposed their self-delusion, and this is ordinarily the moment when conservatives might actually “get it.” If we want to return to normal, we need to be able to quickly trace new infections so we can isolate the people who are spreading the disease. If you don’t build this capability, opening the economy is not going to work and people are going to needlessly die.

Yet, because Donald Trump is uniquely insane, even this painful reality-slap is unlikely to cause a course correction. There’s a reason you’ve never seen Trump laugh. There’s a reason he’s never told a funny joke. Nothing with Trump ever bends. Things only break.

Sometimes I get impatient with the way that #NeverTrumpers get lionized as if they didn’t give their all to bring us George and Dick’s Excellent Adventure in Iraq. I can be very forgiving in my personal life, but I generally draw the line at getting hundreds of thousands of people killed for no good or honest reason.

Having said that, anyone who rejects the Republican Party and Donald Trump is valuable, and Joe Biden is wise to organize them. But how will he organize them?

The contours of a developing “Republicans for Biden” movement are indeed fluid, with longtime operatives and former party loyalists mixed on what a final product would look like and when it might come into fruition. The movement behind-the-scenes is in contrast to the very public effort to unite the left, but matches Biden’s own professed fondness for working with Republicans.

When presented with Biden’s comments, GOP sources interviewed referenced two main possibilities: an external group that would work on his behalf as a political action committee—similar to other Democratic-led outside groups—that could theoretically clear a pathway for others to join; or an internal operation within Biden’s campaign, with one or more recognizable Republican figures joining as the public face.

In this election, Biden should begin with giant ambitions. He should operate on the assumption that it will be possible to shatter the red/blue divide and win in every region of the country, including states that haven’t voted Democratic in decades. That’s going to require that millions of Republican voters cross the aisle, and anything that makes that gives them more permission to do so is a good idea.

It could very well turn out that the election more closely resembles the elections of 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016 and is fought in a narrow band of highly contentious and traditional swing states. The effort to advertise #NeverTrumpers would be just as valuable in that scenario, and the strategy can be shifted and narrowed fairly late if internal state polling warrants it.

 

Forty-two percent of the electorate has a strongly unfavorable view of Donald Trump, and that just seems very unlikely to improve between now and Election Day. Coincidently, 42 percent seems to be close to Trump’s floor in national surveys. At times, he has slipped into the high thirties and at other times he’s even approached 50 percent approval, but most often he’s been stuck in the low forties. This appears to be the shape of the playing field.

As Harry Enten notes for CNN, this is unprecedented. Overall, 69 percent of voters hold strong opinions of Trump, which is the highest mark recorded for any presidential candidate since they started asking the favorable/unfavorable question in 1980. Unsurprisingly, in an average of polls since March, 27 percent have a strongly favorable view of the president, which happens to perfectly match the Alan Keyes Constant. It’s amazing that screenwriter John Rodgers was able to solve the Crazification Factor way back in 2005.

Twenty-seven percent isn’t Trump’s true floor, however, because plenty of people will vote for him despite their deep misgivings simply because they hate or fear the Democrats even more, or because they’re single-issue voters, most often on abortion or gun rights. A few will vote for Trump or a third party candidate simply out of spite for Joe Biden and the Democratic establishment, so Trump won’t need to get to 50 percent in any case.

Yet, with 90 percent of people who hold a negative opinion of Trump expressing a preference for Biden, it’s going to very difficult for Trump to win the popular vote, and almost as hard to win the Electoral College. His plan is to drive up Biden’s unfavorables, and he’ll get an assist on that from Bernie Dead Enders who want to convince you that Biden is some kind of serial rapist. As far-fetched and poorly documented as these charges are, they’re an easier sell than getting people to improve their opinion of Trump. Anyone who helps this effort through some misguided #MeToo reasoning is already dead to me.

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be starting with a new painting of Crumwold Hall, in my own Hudson Valley, New York. The place actually still exists as a church property. I was intrigued by the old photo, circa 1900, that is seen directly below. (No, this is not one of my own photos, ha! I’m not quite that old.)

I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 8×10 inch canvas.

I started with my usual grid and pencil sketch. Once again, this will help to place various elements in their appropriate places. Next week some actual paint.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.