Former Texas Democrat-turned-George W. Bush-acolyte Mark McKinnon thinks Joe Biden and the Democrats should steer clear of Texas. It’s not that McKinnon thinks that Biden has no chance to win the Lone Star State, although he emphasizes that it could be Fool’s Gold. His main point is that if Biden is competitive in Texas, he’s already assured of winning the 270 Electorate College votes he needs from other states. Therefore, it makes no difference whether or not he wins there and he shouldn’t get cocky and try to run up the score.
There’s some logic here. McKinnon uses the example of Hillary Clinton campaigning in Arizona in 2016 in the last days of the campaign when she should have been worried about her own turf in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That’s fair enough, but the problem for Clinton was that the race was narrowing at the end, in no small part thanks to the actions of FBI director James Comey. If the election is somewhat close and getting closer this November, then Biden would be well advised to focus on defense. Winning is infinitely more important than winning big.
But beating the Republicans in Texas should be high on his priority list if he’s coasting to victory in the polls. But before I get to the symbolic and psychological advantages of taking the GOP’s biggest stronghold, I have to mention something else.
Democrats in 2020 instead need to keep the focus on Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Ohio, Iowa, and Maine wouldn’t hurt either. And let’s not forget Minnesota and, yes, even Georgia.
McKinnon suggests that Iowa and Ohio would be more fruitful places to campaign, but Trump won Iowa by 9.6 percent, Ohio by 8.6 percent and Texas by 9.2 percent. They seem roughly equivalent to me.
This is borne out by recent polling. Biden is up in Ohio by one point in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, and he’s down to Trump in Iowa by two in the only recent poll there. In Texas, Trump has a 2.2 percent advantage in the RCP average of polls, but trails by one point in a recent survey. If they all present about an equal opportunity for Biden, then he should consider how much each state is worth. Iowa has 6 votes, Ohio has 18, and Texas has a whopping thirty-eight. The only disadvantage of choosing Texas over the other two is that it’s the most expensive state.
It’s true that Texas is very unlikely to be the tipping point state that decides the election, but it’s trending the Democrats’ way, while the opposite seems to be the case in Iowa and Ohio.
Ideally, Biden will win all of these states, but the one that would really put an exclamation point on his victory is clearly Texas. If he wins there and consolidates the state in the blue column, there is no realistic avenue back to power for the presently constituted Republican Party. The conservative movement would not only be dead, but they’d have to face the reality of their death. They could not go to some oil baron and say that they’re capable of protecting his interests. They couldn’t convincingly act as an effective champion of evangelical Christians. The political money would go elsewhere, and start chasing candidates with a message that might actually work.
Biden needs to win, but to govern he needs a healthy majority in the Senate and he needs to convince his political opponents that the real game is in negotiating with him, not in seeking total obstruction all the time. Blasting Texas out of the GOP column would therefore be immensely valuable to him.
Maybe McKinney is giving bad advice because he’s a bad analyst, but it could be that he’s prepared to see Trump lose but not very enthusiastic to see Texas Republicans get wiped out in the bargain. I’d ignore him. He doesn’t have Biden’s best interests at heart.
Helping turn Texas at least purple would help a lot of things immensely. Education for one. Texas de facto sets the national standards for textbooks because they buy a lot. If it won’t sell in Texas, publishers won’t bother.
Helping local Dems pick up seats moves a Southern state into the 21st century, and helps make a beachhead for rational government in the South.
Tl;dr Biden should absolutely contest Texas.
Another issue is that campaigning in Texas will draw resources that Iowa and Ohio won’t. There’s nothing winnable in Ohio other than the presidential race, and if Biden wins that he’s won anyway elsewhere. If Ohio looks like trouble, the Republicans can just let it go. Iowa has congressional races, but not critical ones. It’s not a must-win for them.
But Texas, as you say, is the lynchpin of the current Republican coalition, and the state House – and thus their ability to gerrymander – is in reach. It also has PR value – Iowa and Ohio are still viewed as swing states, but winning Texas would make Biden’s win a landslide and a repudiation of Republicanism and Trumpism. Regardless of the state of the Presidential race, if Texas is at risk the Republicans are forced to pour resources and effort in. They can’t just ignore it and hope like they can Iowa and Ohio.