Month: July 2020

Within a week of the 2016 election, I began warning the Democrats against writing off small towns and rural areas in favor of a purely urban/suburban strategy. The Democrats didn’t listen and wound up being rewarded in the 2018 midterms when Trump’s style and policies caused his suburban support to crater more than his rural support could ever hope to rise.

If we were to rerun the 2016 election, Trump would still dominate in his areas of strength, but he’d lose badly. Of course, we can’t rerun the last election. This time, Trump is the incumbent and he’s very well-funded. His new opponent attracts and excites a different profile of the electorate than his old one. And we now have four years of Trump’s performance to weigh, and that will have more impact than any other factor.

Yet, it remains the case that Trump’s rural strength gives him a chance to win in some states where he ought to lose. Ron Brownstein explains that the Democrats are in a decent position to make major gains in state legislative races, which is particularly important in this cycle, just as it was in 2010, because all the federal congressional districts will be redrawn with new census data before the 2022 midterms. Yet, the Democrats hope to achieve this by pursuing their suburban advantage:

Even if Trump holds states such as Georgia, Texas, and Arizona by maximizing his rural performance, Democrats could still get a huge boost in down-ballot races if Biden routs the president in the growing urban and suburban areas. Biden’s performance in big metros is “the whole ball game,” Vicky Hausman, the founder and co-CEO of Forward Majority, a Democratic group that tries to flip state chambers, told me. “Trump can run up the score in the rural areas, and it doesn’t impact our path to the majority through the suburbs.”

It’s not true Trump’s rural performance will have no impact in legislative races. There are still some Democrats serving in rural districts, and many contested seats that are mix of suburban and exurban. But the easiest pickings for Democrats are purely suburban seats, and the most likely path to winning mixed seats is to run up their margins in the suburban portion of the districts. Therefore, the strategy makes sense if the goal is to win control of state legislative chambers.

Yet, it would be a shame for Joe Biden to lose states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona because he came out on the wrong end of a rural/suburban polarization. Admittedly, this would represent a shift from 2016, when this polarization cost Clinton Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the presidency. Biden probably doesn’t need Texas and Georgia to win, and he probably doesn’t need Arizona either. Yet, if the election were to shift back in Trump’s direction, the same states that won Trump the election in 2016 could come back into play.

So, there would be a lot of benefit if Biden could make some rural inroads. Not only would he secure the states he must win, but he’d start hauling in key states that Republicans must win. And, yes, this would increase the number of state legislative seats the Democrats carry, possibly allowing them to have more say in how new congressional seats are set up for the next decade. It would help them win U.S. Senate races not only in Texas, Georgia and Arizona, but also in Alaska, Montana, Kansas, and Iowa.

I’m of the opinion, that a narrow Biden win will be a tremendous relief to everyone, but that only a sweeping national condemnation of Trumpism and the Republican Party can put us on the right course. We need the Republicans and their financiers to get the message that their brand of politics is no longer viable or worth pursuing. We have to get past an equally divided and hopelessly polarized nation, and the Democrats need enough power to tackle the major challenges we face.

Therefore, the Democrats should be wary about pursuing a strategy based solely on the ripest fruit. A geographically split country is going to remain a politically divided country. A Democratic Texas would put a swift end to that state of affairs, but winning in places like Georgia and Kansas would also get us a long way toward that goal.

Everything Trump is doing is in the service of maximizing this division because he knows he needs overwhelming rural support, but the Democrats have many good argument to take to these areas of the country, from the impact of Trump’s trade wars to his handling of the coronavirus and rural health care.

Biden should be ambitious and resist running a campaign premised on winning the rural/suburban split that Clinton lost.

I think I should pause to commend the Southern Baptist Convention for using their influence to force out an Alabama pastor who decided to attend and provide the invocation at a birthday party for KKK-founder Nathan Bedford Forrest. It’s nice to see a schism open up between the leadership and old-line racists.

However, the pastor in question is state Rep. Will Dismukes (R). He seems modestly remorseful about his decision, but more for how it affected his family than anything else.

“I guess, with the anti-Southern sentiment and all, and the things that we have going on in the world today, there’s a lot of people that are seeming to be more and more offended,” he told the news station. “We live in a time where we literally are going through cancel culture from all different areas and people are even more sensitive on different issues and different subjects. This was just one of those times that it didn’t quite go the way I expected, and I never intended to bring hurt to anyone, especially my own family with everything that’s been said.”

He has no intention of resigning from the Alabama legislature, although there are calls even from within his party for him to do just that.

pic.twitter.com/UpjWNqWByx

— Clyde Chambliss Jr. (@Clyde_Chambliss) July 28, 2020

I’m not remotely surprised that we still see elected officials in Alabama celebrating the Ku Klux Klan, but it’s encouraging that it now comes with some substantial blowback. This is how things get de-normalized.

For those who have so far escaped the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, the main difficulty has been managing an unholy level of stress. It’s hard to think of any activity that doesn’t induce some level of worry. The disruption of routines is by itself quite stressful. Everywhere we look, there is something to be concerned about. It’s so prevalent that we’re even freaking out that some people aren’t freaking out, because they’re not acting appropriately and therefore putting others at risk.

There are no quick and easy solutions, so no politician can magically return things to normal. What we need is someone who will tell us the important things to keep in mind. We need to know what we can do to help get things back to normal and to prevent things from getting worse. But we also need a leader who will do what they can to reduce the society-wide level of crippling stress we’re experiencing.

Some of this can be done through policy. Helping people avoid losing their homes and their access to health care would be a good start. Providing resources to schools so that they can do the best possible job of reopening, if possible, or teaching remotely, if necessary, is extremely important.

Giving the people consistent good information so that they are clear on the facts will reduce their stress level. Confusion is the enemy, and providing a sense that the government has a grip on the situation is reassuring. Following a blueprint that has worked in many other countries to get the viral spread under control will make it possible to reopen more of the economy, which will save businesses and recreate and reactivate jobs. That would be a great stress reducer.

What we most definitely don’t need is a leader who adds unnecessary things to worry about. We shouldn’t be thinking about the “threat” of antifa. Federal officers shouldn’t be snatching peaceful protestors off the streets and throwing them in unmarked vans. We shouldn’t have to question our president’s motives for brashly pulling our troops out of Germany.  We don’t need warnings that our idyllic suburban lifestyles are under threat.

President Trump began his campaign for the presidency by asking us to look at every Mexican immigrant as a potential rapist. His inaugural address talked about impending “carnage.” His political success depends on people obsessing over exaggerated or non-existent threats. What people should have been focused on was the threat that Trump presented to our nation and the world.

That’s pretty clear now, but he’s still the president and he’s still doing everything he can to make people feel uncomfortable. Now he’s hyping a new exaggerated threat by attacking vote-by-mail. More than that, he’s even suggesting that he might try to delay the election.

With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 30, 2020

The country can’t handle more stress, but Trump is unrelenting. Under his leadership, literally nothing works anymore. The Department of Justice is hopelessly corrupted. The Department of Homeland Security is acting like the Gestapo. Cabinet officials are no longer confirmed by the Senate, but work in an acting or interim capacity. Our alliances are in tatters. Science takes a backseat to partisanship and ideology.

The promise of Joe Biden is not so much what he will do, but that what he won’t do. He won’t stress us out unnecessarily. He won’t deliberately corrupt and break our institutions. He won’t thoughtlessly alienate our friends and do the bidding of our enemies.

The people are so thirsty for this because they are exhausted by Trump. This is also why Trump has no easy way back into contention. The things that work for him put people under stress, which is exactly what they do not want. We’d toss George Washington out of office if we thought we could wake up tomorrow and put our kids on a school bus without worrying about COVID-19.

Joe Biden isn’t that kind of magician, but he can ease our anxiety simply by being himself and not being Trump, and that’s his biggest advantage in this election.

A CNBC/Change Research survey of voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin found overwhelming opposition to the Senate Republicans’ coronavirus stimulus approach. Sixty-nine percent want the federal government to give aid to states to help them avoid massive budget cuts. Sixty-two percent want an extension of the federal $600-a-week unemployment insurance enhancement. And 58 percent are opposed to giving legal immunity to corporations from COVID-19 related law suits.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell found it impossible to get any consensus within his caucus for a bill. The end product satisfied no one. For example, Senator Rick Scott served two terms as the governor of Florida, so you might expect him to be sympathetic to the concept of aiding states that are now facing huge budget shortfalls. But he’s too much of an ideologue to have any empathy for his successor: “I’m very concerned about the amount of money we’re talking about. What I don’t want to do is bail out the states. That’s wrong.”

Maybe Sen. Scott would be less perturbed if he actually read his party’s bill:

The Republican proposal would not allocate any new aid to states and municipalities, instead giving them more flexibility in how they spend relief money approved earlier this year.

Senator Rand Paul was so concerned about the cost that he stormed out of a caucus meeting, despite the fact that the bill “would slash the extra federal unemployment benefit to $200 per week, [and] then shift to a 70% replacement of an individual’s previous wages.” As to the unpopularity of his position, he was defiant: “I think they have the misguided notion that you have to spend this or you can’t get elected.” Based on the survey results, Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Martha McSally of Arizona probably think Rand Paul is out of his mind.

The liability protection provision is not only included in the GOP bill, but McConnell insists it’s the one thing that is non-negotiable.

Pelosi and Schumer questioned McConnell’s willingness to reach an agreement, saying the Kentucky Republican has indicated he wouldn’t compromise on his demands for liability protections for schools and businesses in the next bill.

“That is no way to negotiate particularly when his provision is so extreme,” Schumer told reporters Tuesday afternoon.

Drawing a “red line” on a policy that is supported by only 33 percent of voters in battleground states seems like dumb politics, but McConnell is serving his funders here, and money can shape opinion.

Sen. Lindsey Graham tried to sound optimistic, saying “I think if Mitch can get half the conference, that’d be quite an accomplishment.” But, of course, that comment makes little sense. McConnell needs near-unanimity from his caucus to pass anything without Democratic votes. And his bill will have to be merged with Nancy Pelosi’s completely different House bill and then go through the Senate a second time. McConnell has zero leverage because his caucus is not behind him and the public hates his proposal. Pelosi is happy to walk away and blame the Senate for pursuing toxic policies.

However, the further he moves in her direction, the fewer votes he will have from Senate Republicans, so he’s at risk at passing something that is only supported by only a handful of his caucus. If nothing passes, it will badly hurt his party’s chances in the fall, and he knows this even if Rand Paul does not.

It’s technically Wednesday as of this writing, and I suppose I should be happier than a camel during Wednesday – (Hump Day!). Anyone remember that commercial?

Note that I am not endorsing any insurance product. I did find that commercial amusing.

Okay, I was hoping Sarah Cooper would drop a new video, and she did not disappoint. Old 45 has been bragging about his performance on a cognitive test usually given to people who are suspected of being in the early stages of dementia or perhaps after suffering a stroke as if it were an intelligence test. On its own in various Faux News interviews, it’s comical enough, in that painful, cringeworthy way that any of us who have ever directly experienced the cognitive decline of a friend or family member can attest (I have a direct ancestral link to Alzheimer’s, so I have some idea of what one possible future will look like for me, which is unsettling to say the least). Anyway, Cooper seems to capture Trump’s cluelessness and the sheer horror that many of us feel as he goes on obsessing over his passing this test.

I started watching this John Oliver video hoping to get some advice on how to make eyelashes really pop. It took a dark turn.

That’s what I’ve got for now. Drinks are on the house.

Everything about Michael Bloomberg’s run for the presidency annoyed me, including the incredible amount of money he was willing to burn in the process. When he dropped out and promised to spend a gajillion dollars to help defeat Trump, I took him at his word even if I’d prefer that billionaires be restricted from translating their fortunes into naked exercises of political power. As long as Sheldon Adelson can spend as much as he wants on Trump, Bloomberg can feel free to do the same for Biden. Yet, the money never materialized and I began to wonder if Bloomberg had welshed on his promise just like he welshed on the workers he hired for his candidacy.

Now I feel a little stupid because it turns out that Bloomberg has been focusing his efforts on the COVID-19 problem rather than the presidential campaign, and that’s certainly a worthy and justifiable change of plans.

About two weeks after his concession speech, Bloomberg abruptly dropped plans to create his own Super PAC and laid off hundreds of staffers who’d been promised jobs through November. Several of them filed lawsuits.

Instead, Bloomberg donated $18 million and office space to the Democratic National Committee. He’s also given more than $11 million to the House Majority PAC in support of House Democrats. And his gun reform group, Everytown for Gun Safety, announced last week it was spending $15 million in eight key states, but mostly on legislative races.

Mostly, Bloomberg has been spending his energy — and money — on the COVID-19 response. Bloomberg Philanthropies has spent $331 million on the effort. Bloomberg’s support of New York’s contact tracing program earned him praise from local officials, even longtime antagonist Mayor de Blasio.

“Really appreciate that my predecessor, Michael Bloomberg, is stepping up in such a big way for New York City and New York State,” de Blasio said in April.

Ideally, our government would adequately fund contact tracing without the need for billionaire charity, but I’m glad Bloomberg stepped up to fill the void. Still, I wonder if he’ll ever get around to keeping his promise to spend heavily on beating Trump.

Ryan Lizza created a stir in Politico on Monday when he reported that former Senator Christopher Dodd, who is vetting potential vice-presidential candidates for Joe Biden, is unimpressed with Kamala Harris. In particular, Dodd allegedly doesn’t like how Harris responded when asked about her decision to go after Biden on the busing issue in the first Democratic debate.

This set off a furious response from supporters of Harris, including her online KHIVE fanbase. It was probably counterproductive, unless you think sending a mob to trash Chris Dodd is going to impress Biden. Of course, some figured the appearance of this article indicated that it was a lost cause in any case, but some interpreted the Dodd story as a desperate attempt to derail a nearly completed process that will put Harris on the ticket.

I don’t know where Harris currently stands, but Politico is back today with a story from Nahal Toosi on Susan Rice. Considering how many sources friendly to Rice cooperated on the article, it’s a pretty clear lobbying effort. The Rice camp is probably pleased with the result, as the piece reads like an advertisement. Taken together, the Lizza and Toosi articles are turning Politico into an enemy of the Harris camp.

Yet, their coverage of Karen Bass has been more critical. Quint Forgey focused on something the California congresswoman said at the time of Fidel Castro’s death:

In an interview on MSNBC, the five-term House lawmaker and chair of the Congressional Black Caucus addressed her decision to describe Castro as “Comandante en Jefe” in a statement she issued marking his death in 2016.

The Spanish phrase, which translates in English to commander in chief, has been criticized as unduly deferential to the communist strongman who presided over various human rights abuses.

“I have talked to my colleagues in the House about that, and it’s certainly something that I would not say again,” Bass said. “I have always supported the Cuban people, and the relationship that Barack Obama and Biden had in their administration in terms of opening up relations.”

Of course, Bass was only asked about this comment in response to a Politico article from Marc Caputo “detailing outrage among Florida Democrats over former Vice President Joe Biden’s vetting of Bass to become his running mate.”

The Florida Democratic Party has spent two years fighting a renewed GOP effort to brand it as socialists, and the state and national parties are spending big this year in Miami to defend two congressional seats and win two crucial state Senate contests in districts with sizable Cuban-American populations. All four lawmakers condemned Bass’ Castro remarks.

“The comments are troubling. It shows a lack of understanding about what the Castro regime was about. So I have to learn more about her position and perspective on Fidel Castro,” said Miami state Rep. Javier Fernandez, whose bid for an open state Senate seat could bring Democrats closer than ever to flipping control of the chamber.

So, somehow a contest that pits three talented, well-credentialed and ambitious black women against each other, is playing out by proxy in the pages of Politico. Yet, Elizabeth Warren is still in the running. Last week, the Associated Press weighed in with an examination of how she became “an unlikely confidant and adviser to Biden.” On June 15, she helped Biden raise $6 million in a single event.

Two weeks ago, Natasha Korecki of Politico announced “Tammy Duckworth bursts into VP contention” and “The Purple Heart recipient has captured the imagination of donors and the Biden team.” There’s been a little less buzz about her in the last few days, but she’s probably with the others on the finalists’ list.

There’s been some discussion of governors Gina Raimondo and Michelle Lujan Grisham, as well as Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Florida representatives Val Demings, but they certainly haven’t been as successful at self-promotion as the others. Maybe that’s a plus in Biden’s mind, but it seems like their hopes have faded.

The New York Giants shocked the football world when they chose Joe Judge to be their new head coach. The decision was unusual because Judge had no prior head coaching experience and had never been the coordinator of an offense or a defense. He’d spent his career coaching special teams: kickoffs, punts, and field goals. Admittedly, he was considered very good at this, and had been part of many championships with Nick Saban’s University of Alabama team and Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots. But there wasn’t much precedent for hiring someone like Judge for such a high profile position. By all accounts, he won the job by knocking his interview out of the park.

Based on Ryan Lizza’s reporting for Politico, the interview process is also likely to determine who Joe Biden will choose for his running mate. None of the candidates check every box. Prospects who have run a national election, like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, are somewhat like football coaches who have losing records. Sure, they have relevant experience, but they haven’t proven they can win. Others are like coaching prospects who have specialized on only one side of the ball. A vice-presidential contender with experience in foreign affairs but little experience with domestic policy is a bit like a coach who has spent their whole career working on defense. Susan Rice might fit into this category. Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is more like the coach who is well-versed in offensive philosophy but has never worked on the defensive side of the ball. Tammy Duckworth is a more balanced choice who has both military and legislative experience, but she’s never been in an executive decision-making position. Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island has executive experience but would probably upset the fan base.

Raimondo would have some explaining to do for people on the left. She has had some nasty fights with unions in her state and during the Democratic primaries she endorsed Mike Bloomberg. But if she made it to a sit-down (or Zoom chat) with Biden, she’s the kind of person you could see winning him over with some shared reminiscing about their Irish and Italian ancestors feuding in places like Wilmington and Providence.

There are other considerations, too. Biden wants someone who is “simpatico” with his political outlook, and he wants someone loyal and focused more on being a partner than preparing for a future presidential run. Some of these factors may not be working in Kamala Harris’s favor:

When former Sen. Chris Dodd, a member of Joe Biden’s vice presidential search committee, recently asked Kamala Harris about her ambush on Biden in the first Democratic debate, Dodd was stunned by her response.

“She laughed and said, ‘that’s politics.’ She had no remorse,” Dodd told a longtime Biden supporter and donor, who relayed the exchange to POLITICO on condition of anonymity.

“Dodd felt it was a gimmick, that it was cheap,” the donor said. The person added that Dodd’s concerns about Harris were so deep that he’s helped elevate California Rep. Karen Bass during the vetting process, urging Biden to pick her because “she’s a loyal No. 2. And that’s what Biden really wants.”

Another consideration is simply to “do no harm” considering that Biden appears to be on a glide path to victory. Trump hasn’t been able to lay a glove on Biden, so he’ll be looking to pounce on his running mate.

The strategist said that Warren “checks the box of can-be-president tomorrow. The question for Elizabeth is whether it’s too much octane for the tank. Trump is desperately looking to turn Biden into a scary radical lefty. He can’t do that so his tactic is to make him seem like a tool of the scary radical left. She would become the nominee for president in the mind of Republicans. Trump will say, ‘Biden is so old that he won’t survive a year and she is going to be calling the shots and then she will be president.’”

A compelling case can be made against every known contender, which is all the more reason why the interview will probably be decisive. The Giants chose Joe Judge because he demonstrated the kind of leadership abilities they were looking for. He’s going to have a hard time succeeding at first because the COVID-19 crisis has cancelled all in-person practices and the entirety of the pre-season game schedule. The first time he sees his players in action, he’ll be coaching in a real game against the very experienced and stable Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.  Yet, if the organization made the right choice, he’ll overcome these disadvantages and get the team winning again in short order. Joe Biden doesn’t have some proven winner like Vince Lombardi to choose from, but Lombardi didn’t have head coaching experience when the Green Bay Packers hired him.

Sometimes, you just have to do your research and go with what feels right. There’s a good chance that whoever Biden selects will be president someday, so even though I can’t give him any useful advice, I hope he makes a wise decision.

It’s probably hard to turn down the president of the United States when he invites you to do something, like helping him practice to throw out the first pitch at a baseball game or join him on the links for a round of golf. Nonetheless, people should resist this because pictures are forever, and Mariano Rivera and Brett Favre just voluntarily wound up posing with a man whose future reputation will be as toxic as a Nazi leader in postwar Germany.

President Trump and @BrettFavre on the golf course today.

Photo via the White House pic.twitter.com/vPBeSGDL5G

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) July 25, 2020

Maybe Brett Favre is okay will forcibly locking children in cages after separating them from their parents. Maybe he just enjoys a nice Republican tax cut. What his NFL teammates will remember, however, is that he went golfing with the country’s most notorious anti-black racist in the middle of his campaign for reelection.

New York City just painted ‘Blacks Lives Matter’ on the street in front of Trump Tower in Manhattan to drive home the point that we have a Klansman in the White House. Brett Favre didn’t get the point. Everyone who associates positively with Donald Trump comes away a loser, and that’s never been more true than now.

He’s also in the midst of overseeing an unnecessarily lethal mass-death event and an economic catastrophe that has cost tens of millions of people their jobs and will soon put them on the street without a home. If you golf with him in this midst of this, that’s a silent endorsement of his laziness, his policies, his performance, and his reelection. It’s insane to put your own reputation through that kind of meat grinder.

When the president calls, it’s best to let it go to voicemail.

In a minute, I’ll tell you why this doesn’t surprise me:

America has now passed the milestone of 4 million COVID cases, and we’re still arguing with doctors and epidemiologists about masks and school closures. I expected some of this, because I literally wrote the book over three years ago on why so many Americans think they’re smarter than experts. What I did not expect is that this resolute and childish opposition to expertise would be hijacked by the president of the United States and an entire American political party, and then turned into a suicide cult.

It’s really in infinitesimal jump from Birther to suicide cult. All of the requirements for the first are pretty much contained in the second. And, no, it doesn’t play well in the suburbs or among even modestly educated people.