Perhaps freshman Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan is correct and pollsters are once again severely undercounting Donald Trump’s level of support. The president carried her district by seven points, so she’s feeling endangered and it makes sense for her to plan for the worst. Or perhaps New York Times polling expert Nate Cohn is correct: “Right now, it’s extremely simple: the public has reached a harshly negative judgment of the president’s handling of the most important issue facing the country, and the issue is so paramount that there’s little room to wiggle out of it.” Cohn compares the COVID-19 pandemic to a world war and says Trump resembles Neville Chamberlain. Personally, I’d be more inclined to compare Trump to the early Union generals who Abraham Lincoln could not convince to fight. I might go farther and say Trump reminds me of Benedict Arnold who switched sides in the Revolutionary War and started helping the enemy.
Where I definitely side with Cohn is when he tries to imagine what might change to make this presidential race into a closer contest.
When I'm thinking about how the race could change–say, return to Biden+6–I'm thinking about whether those conditions change. Does coronavirus subside or become less salient? Does the public's view of the president's handling improve; or, first, does POTUS change his handling?
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 10, 2020
Cohn concludes, “At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don’t see good signs for him on either front.”
Of the two variables, it’s more likely that conditions will improve than Trump will make a meaningful change in his behavior. It seems more plausible to me that an 100 percent cure-all COVID-19 vaccine will arrive in everyone’s mailbox by the end of next week than that Trump will suddenly begin treating this virus with the seriousness and respect displayed by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.
What I see is a coming fiasco with the Republican convention, followed by a continued worsening of the viral outbreak, culminating in a revolt by parents who are furious that it’s still not safe to send their kids back to school. It’s quite possible that even the stock market will conspire against Trump in the end, but even if it continue to defy gravity, the basic economic conditions in the country are going to be horrible in November, and trust in Trump to handle any kind of crisis will be an all-time low.
My best guess is that every day for the rest of the campaign is going to worse for Trump than the last. And that means every day will technically be the worst day of Trump’s political life.
4.5
No convention, no rallies, no school, no football.
.
No other sports
no movie theatres
no bars
No religious revivals
But some whopping big hurricanes
No full recovery of all of this year’s big stock market losses
But more major coastal flooding
No intact grid for the extreme summer heat
But greatly increased domestic violence
No extreme racial/ethnic bigotry without a big cost
But Native Americans with treaties in several states overthrowing old convictions, including of protestors
It is way way too hot to stay in the kitchen if Trump and his ilk
Since the latter part of June I have come to think he is done
Known conditions are negative for him
I disagree. It certainly looks like both the players union (as opposed to individuals) and owners are hellbent on having a baseball season. And baseball doesn’t make the kind of money football does
Baseball isn’t going all that well.
https://deadspin.com/baseball-coronavirus-round-up-literally-everyone-will-1844350064
Thousands and thousands of tests are going to be wasted, all to start a season that will not finish, or will be a travesty because whole teams will go into isolation.
This is nothing compared to college football, where they won’t have students on campus, but ‘student athletes’ are required to be on site. How the designation ‘student athlete’ will survive that I have no idea.
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5
We know that Barr is hoping to play the role of Comey 2.0 this October, do we think he will have lost enough credibility with the public and (more importantly) the press that it will not provide enough to save the Senate (my thinking right now is I don’t know of any REAL condition that would change to save Trump’s hide at this point).
3.5
4.5
5
Aaaaand Roger Stone spends no time in the barrel. Enjoy reading the accompanying essay!
Also because it was commuted, he still has 5th Amendment privileges.
5
5
I rather like the idea that every day of the remainder of Trump’s entire life, and that of his evil spawn and spawn-in-laws, will be worse than the last. I want to live to see Trump totally abandoned by his adoring base (although that seems unlikely).