A CBS News poll released Sunday morning shows Donald Trump up by a single point in Texas, and that is bad enough news for the conservative movement. However, if the survey taken by the Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler can be believed, things are actually considerably more dire for the wingnuts. The latter shows Joe Biden with a 46 percent-41 percent lead in the Lone Star State, which is outside the 2.24 percentage point margin of error.
Both polls show considerable discontent with how the coronavirus outbreak has been handled, with a strong consensus that it was a major mistake to open the economy so soon. More blame is assigned to Trump than Governor Abbott, but both of them have seen a major deterioration in their approval numbers, particularly from independents and “weak partisans.”
For the moment, the Dallas Morning News has Senator John Cornyn still leading against both Royce West and MJ Hegar who will soon meet in a runoff. Yet, Cornyn only has 37 percent support and almost a third of the electorate is undecided. He definitely looks vulnerable. In fact, the Republican Party of Texas is in precarious shape. The Democrats are hoping to win control of the state House of Representatives and they’re already targeting seven federal congressional seats. If Biden is indeed carrying the state, that number may grow to ten, or even higher.
With 38 Electoral College votes, Texas is as critical to Republican presidential fortunes as California is for the Democrats. To see why, consider that Biden would get a winning 270 votes by carrying Texas even if he loses Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, New Hampshire and one of Maine’s two congressional districts.
In addition to that, any realistic near-term hope the GOP has of taking back control of the U.S. House of Representatives hinges on them having a very large majority in their Texas delegation. If they get wiped out in Texas in 2020, it won’t just be a temporary defeat. It will require a total revamp of the party to make them competitive again, and that means that the conservatives will either lose their grip over the GOP or they’re have to be content with the kind of permanent minority they suffered through much of the 20th Century.
I’ve long said that the Conservative Movement will die when they lose Texas. Trump is in the process of making that happen.
Yep. And if Trump doesn’t do the job in November, then demographic change will do it in 2024. Two further thoughts about this:
1) The anti-democratic status of the Electoral College (& Senate): CA, FL, NY, & TX currently combine to make up 151 of the 270 electoral votes (56%) needed to elect a president; but they combine to make up 143 of the 218 House districts (66%) needed to elect a speaker. They make up 8 of the 51 seats (16%) needed to elect a Senate majority leader.
2) Let’s assume the crazification factor in American politics is closely linked to the racist/segregationist vote. What happens to that 27% of the electorate once the Republicans lose Texas? At that point it seems clear that making those voters feel welcome within the GOP has lost its political potency, and the Southern strategy will have to be put to rest (especially with way things are going in the Atlantic southern states).
The most likely strategy for rebuilding the Republic party is to…what? Be to civil rights what Eisenhower was to the New Deal and try to appeal to socially and economically conservative immigrants and their children? But then what happens to the 27%ers?
The 27% will still be a rump in the Republican party because there is nowhere else for them to go. They could try to make their own party. That isn’t likely in much of the US because of the deep pockets needed to get onto the ballot in most states. It could happen, but then the Republicans would be quite splintered and a spent political force.
This is one of only two things I’m grateful to trump for. The other is that he’s taken a harder stance on Taiwan then previous presidents.
If Clinton were President, Texas turning blue would still be 10 years out IMO. But nothing like a having a “leader” who may kill us all, motivate apathetic voters.
Of course he still may kill us all before election day, or the power handover in January.
And I lied. There is one more thing im grateful to him for:
Do you all realize that if this all plays out the way it looks, we will NEVER HAVE TO LISTEN OR CATER TO EVANGELICALS AGAIN. They and their fake morals will become irrelevant to national politics. All because their fake morals led them to the biggest faker of them all.
Thanks don.
This has really made my Sunday. If this happens I will have to watch Fox News call Texas for Biden on election night. It would be delicious.
You hate to see it….
Literally killing them. Not taking coronavirus seriously and doing things in defiance of scientific evidence. And if not killing the people, leaving some of those folks with permanent disabilities.