The two biggest landslide presidential elections in my lifetime took place in 1972 and 1984, with the Republican candidate in both cases winning 49 states. They were primarily two-way contests, unlike Bill Clinton’s two successful elections, so we can get a better comparison to the 2020 race. In 1972, incumbent Richard Nixon demolished Senator George McGovern 60.7 percent to 37.5 percent. In 1984, incumbent Ronald Reagan demolished former vice-president Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40.6 percent.  Thats a 23.2 percent gap in the first example and a 18.2 percent gap in the second. Going back to before I was born, LBJ had a 23.1 percent gap over Barry Goldwater, Eisenhower had a 25.4 gap over Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and FDR had a 23.7 gap over Alf Landon in 1936.

Currently, a Washington Post-ABC News poll, gives Joe Biden a 55 percent to 40 percent lead over Donald Trump among all voters. A “certain-to-vote” screen reduces that margin down to an eleven point spread. Lest you think this is all coronavirus related, the poll had the exact same 55-40 spread last September, and an even worse 56-39 spread in October. Trump actually got a little bump after getting impeached, and the country briefly rallied around him at the beginning of the viral outbreak, but those were temporary improvements in his position, and he’s now back to his approximate low-water mark.

He’s arguably in far worse shape that he was last fall. For one, it’s closer to Election Day and he has much less time to recover. For another, he was doing better back then on the questions of handling the economy and being a strong leader. Finally, he’s been tested by a major crisis now, and found wanting.

All told, Biden bests Trump on six of seven attributes and on three of four issues measured in the poll.

Biden is seen as having the better personality and temperament to serve as president by 26 points among adults overall. He is seen as likely to do more to unite the country by 24 points, of better understanding “problems of people like you” by 17 points, as more honest and trustworthy by 14 points, as better representing “your own personal values” by 12 points and as having a better idea of what America should stand for by 10 points. Trump and Biden are even at 45 percent on the question of who is seen as the stronger leader…

…On issues, Biden has a 20-point advantage on who is more trusted to deal with the coronavirus outbreak, a 25-point advantage on race relations and a nine-point advantage on crime and safety…Trump’s best issue remains the economy, where 47 percent say they trust him more and 45 percent say they trust Biden more.

So, Trump’s overall approval numbers are down substantially, his advantage on the economy has all but evaporated, and his reputation as a strong leader no longer yields him any advantage. Based on the other results, the president is fortunate to be down only 11-15 points, but his trajectory is headed in the wrong direction. If Biden continues to gather support, it won’t be long before he’s in the 18-point range that Reagan enjoyed during his 49-state romp in 1984.

Before Congress heads home for the August recess, they’re going to do one more massive COVID-19 relief bill. It’s the president’s last chance to convince the public that he’s got this pandemic under control. But his White House is currently blocking all funds for testing and tracing, and they’re fighting virus-related money for the Centers for Disease Control, State Department and Pentagon. This is Mitch McConnell’s effort to save his Senate majority, and Trump is completely opposed to it.

I wrote above that Trump’s problems existed before the pandemic and that’s true, but the pandemic gave him a golden chance to improve his position. He squandered it, as the public surveys on his COVID-19 performance amply demonstrate:

On that question, there has been a net drop of 28 points in his approval margin since March as the president has repeatedly contradicted or ignored health experts in his administration and in the states, stoked confusion about the importance of wearing masks and at times appeared indifferent to the crisis even as conditions in many parts of the country were worsening. Currently, 38 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, and 60 percent disapprove.

Other than in California. the viral outbreak is now most problematic in states that Trump carried in 2016. People understand that his happy predictions did not come true. He should have invested in testing and tracing and he should not have encouraged states to open their economies before they met his own experts’ metrics for reopening. He could recover somewhat if he admitted his error and used the last COVID-19 recovery bill to address his mistakes. But he’s taking the exact opposite position, and this is infuriating Republicans in Congress.

Pretty soon, people will confront the dilemma of what to do about school for their children. The president has told schools to reopen with a full schedule and limited social distancing or he’ll withhold their federal funds. Doing this while opposing funding for testing and tracing seems politically suicidal to me, which is why I predict his numbers will continue to slip.

I don’t know if they can call fall into Aldai Stevenson, Barry Goldwater and George McGovern territory, but it certainly seems possible.  Trump came to political prominence through his promulgation of the nonsensical Birther Theory, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see him say nonsensical things like fewer tests will result in fewer infections, but a lot of people are being forced to confront his true nature for the first time. They do not like what they see, and he’s going to get slaughtered.