One of the significant features of the presidential race right now is that an average of polls shows the challenger, Joe Biden, running above fifty percent. As Harry Enten of CNN points out, this is highly unusual.
For now though, we can say Biden’s doing better than any challenger heading into the major party conventions since scientific polling began.
In the 13 previous elections in which an incumbent was running for another term, no challenger has ever been at or above 50% in the polls at this point in the campaign. The closest were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Thomas Dewey in 1948. Carter was at about 49%, while Dewey came in at between 48% and 49%.
Most challengers were not even near that mark. The average opponent to the incumbent comes in at a mere 38% since 1940. Biden is nearly 15 points higher than that at this time.
To give but one example, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has Biden ahead 52 percent to 42 percent, with a small 2.5 percent margin of error. That still leaves 6 percent either undecided or committed to a third party candidate. There isn’t much evidence of hidden Trump support this time around, and going back several weeks now, Biden has held a significant advantage with voters who are either undecided or dislike both candidates. In the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, Biden’s lead with the haters stands at 52-33. On the whole, it seems like the former vice-president has a strong edge when we look for areas of potential growth, including, to my surprise, with black voters under thirty who, prior to the selection of Kamala Harris as Biden’s running mate, were showing a shocking level of apathy about voting at all and some seriously tepid levels of support for the Democratic Party.
If you’ve noticed some implausible-seeming survey numbers for Trump among black voters, this is probably why, and it’s unlikely to materialize for him. Much more likely, Biden will get well north of ninety percent of their votes, and turnout could be close to Obama-level numbers.
Having said all this, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Trump a 27 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, which really demonstrates the advantages of incumbency and the conservative bias inherent in how we choose our president. We probably shouldn’t expect much of a convention bounce for Biden this week, both because it won’t be a typical convention and because convention bounces have become increasingly less pronounced in recent cycles. This will also work against Trump when the time comes for him to do whatever he’s going to do from the White House lawn.
I don’t think we should expect a whole lot of movement in the race from where it stands right now, but unforeseen events can always have an influence. The undecideds will eventually decide, which will probably improve Biden’s polling lead. Trump will continue to cheat and looks to suppress the vote, which will have some success.
If the election were decided by popular vote and no significant shenanigans were involved, this election would already be over. Unfortunately, it takes more than that to knock out a Republican president.
I think the shy Biden voter will be a much more realistic possibility this time. Mostly women I imagine who say they’re for Trump when their husbands are around but who secretly loathe him and write Biden in the privacy of the voting booths.
I wouldn’t call them shy Biden voters, but Biden definitely has room to grow with his weak areas: Latinos and young people. Undecided voters are mostly in those categories, and their disapproval of Trump is higher than the average voter. He’s probably got a ceiling of 56%, Trump probably has a floor of 44%. Throw in third party, 54-45 Is a realistic, even likely, possibility.
My fear is that an overwhelming percentage of Trump voters will show up at the polls while most Biden supporters vote by mail. Hence on 11/03 itself Trump will have a lead and use that as pretext to sabotage the overall count. Popular vote DOES matter this time for PR purposes in this struggle. We need a big turn out in NY and CA by Biden voters on 11/03 in this battle. I’m in a blue state. And on 11/03 I’m putting on my mask and voting in person. Its sucks that we voters are being put in this position of having to risk our health to save our country. But to paraphrase the Facist ‘N Chief: it is what it is.
It’s true butut remember they tried to pull that shit in Wisconsin and how’d it turn out for them there? People will vote in person and risk their life of need be to see the orange Cheeto gone.
Yes, I definitely have what happened in WI on my mind. I just hope that outcome can be replicated nationally.
I could see Biden getting a significant convention bounce. People are generally cynical about politicians. The right kind of show, with Harris and respected figures within the party shouting his praises, could move the needle, particularly with undecideds. At the same time, there’s likely a targeted sophisticated effort by the Russians to undermine support for Biden which will likely have an effect too. So perhaps we’ll see a bounce which later erodes.
I’d agree that this race is more locked in that most. People have their opinions about Trump and not much is going to move the needed. I’m saddened that he still have 40+ percent support but it is what it is.
This is your periodic reminder that 3+ years into the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote.
Trump is relying on that and improvement in the economy, stock market and employment. Then he has some magic from friend Vladimir and such, maybe even a decline in the virus.
I think Biden could get a SIGNIFICANT bounce if the Dems went all out at the convention to reach out to Progressives. Give AOC a spot for instance. Sadly, they seem inclined to do just the opposite. 😳