Martin Longman is the web editor of the Washington Monthly.
He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. Before joining the Monthly, Martin was a county coordinator for ACORN/Project Vote and a political consultant. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
I think the shy Biden voter will be a much more realistic possibility this time. Mostly women I imagine who say they’re for Trump when their husbands are around but who secretly loathe him and write Biden in the privacy of the voting booths.
I wouldn’t call them shy Biden voters, but Biden definitely has room to grow with his weak areas: Latinos and young people. Undecided voters are mostly in those categories, and their disapproval of Trump is higher than the average voter. He’s probably got a ceiling of 56%, Trump probably has a floor of 44%. Throw in third party, 54-45 Is a realistic, even likely, possibility.
My fear is that an overwhelming percentage of Trump voters will show up at the polls while most Biden supporters vote by mail. Hence on 11/03 itself Trump will have a lead and use that as pretext to sabotage the overall count. Popular vote DOES matter this time for PR purposes in this struggle. We need a big turn out in NY and CA by Biden voters on 11/03 in this battle. I’m in a blue state. And on 11/03 I’m putting on my mask and voting in person. Its sucks that we voters are being put in this position… Read more »
It’s true butut remember they tried to pull that shit in Wisconsin and how’d it turn out for them there? People will vote in person and risk their life of need be to see the orange Cheeto gone.
I could see Biden getting a significant convention bounce. People are generally cynical about politicians. The right kind of show, with Harris and respected figures within the party shouting his praises, could move the needle, particularly with undecideds. At the same time, there’s likely a targeted sophisticated effort by the Russians to undermine support for Biden which will likely have an effect too. So perhaps we’ll see a bounce which later erodes. I’d agree that this race is more locked in that most. People have their opinions about Trump and not much is going to move the needed. I’m saddened… Read more »
Trump is relying on that and improvement in the economy, stock market and employment. Then he has some magic from friend Vladimir and such, maybe even a decline in the virus.
I think Biden could get a SIGNIFICANT bounce if the Dems went all out at the convention to reach out to Progressives. Give AOC a spot for instance. Sadly, they seem inclined to do just the opposite. 😳
I think the shy Biden voter will be a much more realistic possibility this time. Mostly women I imagine who say they’re for Trump when their husbands are around but who secretly loathe him and write Biden in the privacy of the voting booths.
I wouldn’t call them shy Biden voters, but Biden definitely has room to grow with his weak areas: Latinos and young people. Undecided voters are mostly in those categories, and their disapproval of Trump is higher than the average voter. He’s probably got a ceiling of 56%, Trump probably has a floor of 44%. Throw in third party, 54-45 Is a realistic, even likely, possibility.
My fear is that an overwhelming percentage of Trump voters will show up at the polls while most Biden supporters vote by mail. Hence on 11/03 itself Trump will have a lead and use that as pretext to sabotage the overall count. Popular vote DOES matter this time for PR purposes in this struggle. We need a big turn out in NY and CA by Biden voters on 11/03 in this battle. I’m in a blue state. And on 11/03 I’m putting on my mask and voting in person. Its sucks that we voters are being put in this position… Read more »
It’s true butut remember they tried to pull that shit in Wisconsin and how’d it turn out for them there? People will vote in person and risk their life of need be to see the orange Cheeto gone.
Yes, I definitely have what happened in WI on my mind. I just hope that outcome can be replicated nationally.
I could see Biden getting a significant convention bounce. People are generally cynical about politicians. The right kind of show, with Harris and respected figures within the party shouting his praises, could move the needle, particularly with undecideds. At the same time, there’s likely a targeted sophisticated effort by the Russians to undermine support for Biden which will likely have an effect too. So perhaps we’ll see a bounce which later erodes. I’d agree that this race is more locked in that most. People have their opinions about Trump and not much is going to move the needed. I’m saddened… Read more »
This is your periodic reminder that 3+ years into the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote.
Trump is relying on that and improvement in the economy, stock market and employment. Then he has some magic from friend Vladimir and such, maybe even a decline in the virus.
I think Biden could get a SIGNIFICANT bounce if the Dems went all out at the convention to reach out to Progressives. Give AOC a spot for instance. Sadly, they seem inclined to do just the opposite. 😳