Martin Longman is the web editor of the Washington Monthly.
He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. Before joining the Monthly, Martin was a county coordinator for ACORN/Project Vote and a political consultant. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
For me the most encouraging thing about the Harris pick is it means that Biden didn’t overthink it. (For overthinking, see McCain-Palin in 2008.) A VP pick should be someone who 1) can do the job of president, 2) has run a national campaign before, and 3) has won a major statewide race. Basically, it’s a “do no harm” decision. That’s what Biden did. Harris is a plausible president, ran for president herself so she’s not a rookie in dealing with the national media and all the stresses of a national campaign, and has major executive and legislative experience. The… Read more »
Encouraging poll for sure. But I cannot forget 2016. It haunts me, and I know Trump has not pulled out all the stops just yet. He will push the economy very hard and the stock market, which looks like it is headed back up, virus or not. A few good reports on unemployment, and it could be a brand new race. It looks like Biden has put together a very good coalition although I am not sure how stable it is. M4A seems to have bought the farm and AOC is not featured. So there are still some on the… Read more »
Why did you make me click on that stupid article? Now my whole day will be a little dumber. It seems that some people are desperate for any polling movement that will support their preconceived notions. But if you look at the polling averages, things are remarkably steady: Biden +8, Trump approval 42%. It’s the latter number that both drives me crazy (150000 are dead, how can 42% *still* support him?), but also makes me confident that there is no legitimate way that Trump can win. We have now thousands of polls on Trump’s popularity, and if there is one… Read more »
I feel like people need to know statistics better. If Biden is really up +8 (as the averages say), and the standard deviation of any single poll is 3.0, then there’s about 1/10 chance that a single poll will produce an outcome of Biden being +4 or less
We’ve been locked in a Biden +8 (50-42) since mid-June, so there’s going to be a natural desire among the right-leaning members of the media to emphasize any poll that suggests otherwise.
For me the most encouraging thing about the Harris pick is it means that Biden didn’t overthink it. (For overthinking, see McCain-Palin in 2008.) A VP pick should be someone who 1) can do the job of president, 2) has run a national campaign before, and 3) has won a major statewide race. Basically, it’s a “do no harm” decision. That’s what Biden did. Harris is a plausible president, ran for president herself so she’s not a rookie in dealing with the national media and all the stresses of a national campaign, and has major executive and legislative experience. The… Read more »
New Washington Post poll is far more bullish on Biden-Harris than CNN.
Poll.
Encouraging poll for sure. But I cannot forget 2016. It haunts me, and I know Trump has not pulled out all the stops just yet. He will push the economy very hard and the stock market, which looks like it is headed back up, virus or not. A few good reports on unemployment, and it could be a brand new race. It looks like Biden has put together a very good coalition although I am not sure how stable it is. M4A seems to have bought the farm and AOC is not featured. So there are still some on the… Read more »
Why did you make me click on that stupid article? Now my whole day will be a little dumber. It seems that some people are desperate for any polling movement that will support their preconceived notions. But if you look at the polling averages, things are remarkably steady: Biden +8, Trump approval 42%. It’s the latter number that both drives me crazy (150000 are dead, how can 42% *still* support him?), but also makes me confident that there is no legitimate way that Trump can win. We have now thousands of polls on Trump’s popularity, and if there is one… Read more »
I feel like people need to know statistics better. If Biden is really up +8 (as the averages say), and the standard deviation of any single poll is 3.0, then there’s about 1/10 chance that a single poll will produce an outcome of Biden being +4 or less
We’ve been locked in a Biden +8 (50-42) since mid-June, so there’s going to be a natural desire among the right-leaning members of the media to emphasize any poll that suggests otherwise.
All the women I know love the Kamala pick. Its energizing to have someone to vote for.