I didn’t know there was a recurring survey called the DTN/The Progressive Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index until today. The current results, which were measured August 6 to August 14, show significant deterioration in President Trump’s rural support since April.
This is the third ACI survey in which DTN examined farmer support for the current president. Asked how they would vote if the election was held now, 71% said they would likely vote to retain the Trump administration. While a solid majority, that is significantly lower than the 89% of farmers who said they would vote that way in the April 2020 DTN survey.
That change in support also showed up in questions regarding the current pandemic. In both the spring and pre-harvest ACI surveys, farmers were asked if they were satisfied with the way the Trump administration was handling the coronavirus crisis. In August, only 43% said they were satisfied, while 20% said they were not satisfied and 37% said they were undecided. In April, as the pandemic was just beginning to take a hold and the administration was downplaying its severity, 84% said they were satisfied with the way the pandemic was being handled, only 9% said they were dissatisfied and a smaller amount, 6.7%, said they were unsure.
The reason for that dissatisfaction likely has many prongs. Social media commentary from rural America seems divided between those concerned with the rise in COVID-19 cases and the lack of answers to stop that rise, while others feel the issue has been overblown and control methods such as lockdowns and social distancing have overly hurt the economy.
It appears that almost one in five Trump-supporting farmers has reconsidered their position in light of his COVID-19 performance. This makes sense. I know that I’d have to see real ineptitude from a Democratic president before I’d consider voting for a Republican challenger, but if I thought the country was in legitimate danger I’d have to make that call.
A lot of people are wondering why Trump is still playing to his base rather than making a serious play for the center, but one reason is that his base needs shoring up.
Right. At this point, I think the strategy is to shore up the base and get enough votes to be able to win through rigging and disenfranchisement. If his own base turns on him, he’s fucked and he knows it.
Every last one of them will vote for Trump. If you’re having “second thoughts” in August of 2020, it means you realize you’re seen as a scumbag by everyone else, and you’re going to pretend not to be when they’re looking at you.
The voting booth is very, very private.
Thanks for your comment. For what it’s worth, I disagree.
First, all sorts of people aren’t even paying attention to the elections. Plenty of them won’t start paying attention until sometime in October.
Second, an 18% change in approval rating (in either direction) is statistically significant. It means *something’s* going on with that group of voters.
Third, it only takes 5-10% of Trump’s 2016 voters changing their minds to turn this election into what we think of as a landslide. Trump got 46% of the popular vote in 2016. If he gets 42% this year then Biden will end up with over 400 electoral votes.
From your keyboard keys to the Electoral College.
Now, right now,is when Biden needs to be heard. He needs to literally go to Wisconsin and address the people. Failure to engage means he loses. There is no other choice. Now is the time that will matter.