I grew up in New Jersey and have the attitude to prove it, but my parents were raised in Iowa City and Kalamazoo, and they have a Midwestern sensibility. I understood this from an early age. Midwesterners prize politeness and decorum in ways that make little sense in the Mid-Atlantic. That’s one reason I was surprised that Donald Trump’s act sold so well there in 2016. But perhaps his personality lacked staying power in the region, as his support there seems to be collapsing in spectacular fashion. The evidence is everywhere, starting with a highly-rated and stunning new ABC News/The Washington Post poll out of Wisconsin that shows him down by a whopping 17 points. Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight provides more examples:

  • RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshotfound similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100).
  • Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesotahave now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.
  • On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.

There’s evidence of erosion in Trump’s support in other regions and states, but nothing on this level. Rakich attributes the drop to a surge of COVID-19 cases in the Midwest, and I believe that definitely is playing a role. But I also think it’s attributable to a personality mismatch. Trump is still holding steady with white non-college voters in the South, for example, but he’s losing their devotion in places like Ohio and Iowa. Racial attitudes probably play a part, as the Midwest defections began in the aftermath of the George Floyd protests. Evidently, Trump’s response played fine in the South but cost him dearly in the North.

On November 10, 2016, I wrote Avoiding the Southification of the North as a warning that Trump could transfer southern white racial attitudes and political behaviors to the Rust Belt, which I considered a tragic possibility, so I take this recent polling as a tremendously encouraging sign that perhaps he failed.