Did We Avoid the Southification of the North

I grew up in New Jersey and have the attitude to prove it, but my parents were raised in Iowa City and Kalamazoo, and they have a Midwestern sensibility. I understood this from an early age. Midwesterners prize politeness and decorum in ways that make little sense in the Mid-Atlantic. That’s one reason I was surprised that Donald Trump’s act sold so well there in 2016. But perhaps his personality lacked staying power in the region, as his support there seems to be collapsing in spectacular fashion. The evidence is everywhere, starting with a highly-rated and stunning new ABC News/The Washington Post poll out of Wisconsin that shows him down by a whopping 17 points. Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight provides more examples:

RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshotfound similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100).
Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesotahave now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.
On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.

There’s evidence of erosion in Trump’s support in other regions and states, but nothing on this level. Rakich attributes the drop to a surge of COVID-19 cases in the Midwest, and I believe that definitely is playing a role. But I also think it’s attributable to a personality mismatch. Trump is still holding steady with white non-college voters in the South, for example, but he’s losing their devotion in places like Ohio and Iowa. Racial attitudes probably play a part, as the Midwest defections began in the aftermath of the George Floyd protests. Evidently, Trump’s response played fine in the South but cost him dearly in the North.

On November 10, 2016, I wrote Avoiding the Southification of the North as a warning that Trump could transfer southern white racial attitudes and political behaviors to the Rust Belt, which I considered a tragic possibility, so I take this recent polling as a tremendously encouraging sign that perhaps he failed.

6 Comments

texponder on October 28, 2020 at 6:56 pm

If DJT loses popularity in the “North,” it’s because people up there have looked around and seen that his promises resulted in no more than even more closed factories, Foxconn, and bankrupt farmers. And then there’s Covid. The promises came home to roost. Maybe it will feel like a good fit to Northerners to return back to the Dem fold at least this time.

I’ll never get over the delicious irony of the red-blooded So’then country boys getting infinitely bamboozled by a New York conjob liar salesman, with his fancy clothes and city slicker haircut. One of the oldest swindles in the book. They even allowed Admiral Bone Spurs to poop on their proud military tradition and patriotic traditions. And all of the proud So’then leaders (like JeffBeau and Lindsaey) elbowing their way onto that dirty, rickety, noisy, unsafe NY subway car to hang on for the ride to who knows where. Tsk Tsk.

No Straight Lines on October 28, 2020 at 10:35 pm

It was one thing when it was the “new” brown people being targeted. But when the existing Black population pulled the cover off the racism they experience daily, I think a lot of suburban white folks looked into the mirror and didn’t like the person staring back. Add in the economic chaos and the sociopathic handling of COVID, and I’m not shocked.

centerfielddj on October 29, 2020 at 12:23 am

It doesn’t even appear that Trump’s response to the Floyd protests played entirely well in the South either, if we are to take the polls in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and elsewhere as a sign. Lord knows there are plenty of things which have caused crucial portions of Trump’s electoral coalition to slide out of his clutches, but he’s not running as strong anywhere in the South as he did in 2016.

MikeInOhio on October 29, 2020 at 7:52 am

It was interesting to go back and re-read your 2016 article, in the context of everything that has happened over the last four years. You ended the article with this:

Because if the Democrats let this become a racial fight between their multicultural base and the white rural counties of the North, that’s a recipe for the political Southification of the entire country. That’s what the GOP has been doing in a gradual way for 36 years, and it’s the basis for Trump’s coalition and for his reelection in 2020.

Avoiding a fight on those terms is essential even though everyone will be demanding it and one party will be pursuing it for all its worth. Once these fights get started they get a life of their own, they snowball, and the political damage becomes entrenched. The Democrats need a plan that prevents eighty or ninety percent of white rural northerners from feeling like they’re the enemy, and continually insisting that they are the enemy is not that plan.

The COVID pandemic has, in many ways, put the Southification question on the back burner for now. But I can’t help but feel as if, lurking in the background right behind COVID, is the fact that this election is also revolving around that racial fight between a Democratic multicultural base and white rural counties. As you mentioned, the GOP is still largely motivated by the racial grievance factor, and with all of the instances we have had to deal with over the last four years related to law enforcement’s killing of African Americans, the whole BLM movement, and the explosion of white nationalist sentiment within the mainstream GOP, it appears that they Southification of the North is well underway, and not likely to be reversed by Democratic wins, but made worse during a Democratic administration.

While it is true that this cycle there will probably be defections by more than a few 2016 Trump voters, I don’t think most of them will defect Trump due to a rejection of the Southification factor. The extreme and unprecedented efforts we have seen by the GOP to lock in minority power are the most glaring examples that national Southification is their one and only goal, and they are willing to blow up the Constitution and two centuries of governing norms to achieve that. And I believe their constituency, even those who might defect this cycle, are fully behind them on this. Issues that were urged for Democrats to pursue, like the antitrust platform you wrote about so often, seem to have been swept from the consciousness of the Democratic Party. This is most certainly due to the fact that we are in a Defcon-1 status to save our democracy. If we win this cycle, including both Houses of Congress, then it will be incumbent on the Democratic Party to simply steamroll the minority at every turn, as they will be using everything within their power, including the currently stacked SC, to stifle every single legislative and executive effort. I hope that elected Democrats, particularly the Senators, are prepared for what is going to be necessary to have any chance of holding our ground against the backlash that we know is going to come. The Southification of the North is well underway, on many fronts, and being supported by ever more strenuous efforts in many Northern states to insure that things like gerrymandering continue to breathe life into its existence.

lilburro on November 1, 2020 at 5:57 am

Related from Ralston:

So how does Trump get to 90,000 in the rurals? Remember he won by 40 points in 2016 and his margin was 58,000 votes. There are now about 40,000 more voters on the rolls, and I still think he tops out at about 80,000, so game over. But could he get to 90,000?

Here’s how hard that is:

If rural turnout is 80 percent, Trump would need to win the rurals by 50 points. Forty was unlikely in 2016; 50 seems crazy in 2020.

If rural turnout got to 85 percent, which I would say is not impossible, Trump would still need to win by more than 45 points. (Right now, GOP ballots are at 55 percent and Democrats at 22 percent.)

Margin right now is 33 points by reg. Am crossing fingers Biden will close a bit of the rural gap over Hillary (who lost rurals by 40 points) and your thesis is right nationwide.

lilburro on November 1, 2020 at 5:57 am

oops – link here https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

texponder on October 28, 2020 at 6:56 pm

If DJT loses popularity in the “North,” it’s because people up there have looked around and seen that his promises resulted in no more than even more closed factories, Foxconn, and bankrupt farmers. And then there’s Covid. The promises came home to roost. Maybe it will feel like a good fit to Northerners to return back to the Dem fold at least this time.

I’ll never get over the delicious irony of the red-blooded So’then country boys getting infinitely bamboozled by a New York conjob liar salesman, with his fancy clothes and city slicker haircut. One of the oldest swindles in the book. They even allowed Admiral Bone Spurs to poop on their proud military tradition and patriotic traditions. And all of the proud So’then leaders (like JeffBeau and Lindsaey) elbowing their way onto that dirty, rickety, noisy, unsafe NY subway car to hang on for the ride to who knows where. Tsk Tsk.
No Straight Lines on October 28, 2020 at 10:35 pm

It was one thing when it was the “new” brown people being targeted. But when the existing Black population pulled the cover off the racism they experience daily, I think a lot of suburban white folks looked into the mirror and didn’t like the person staring back. Add in the economic chaos and the sociopathic handling of COVID, and I’m not shocked.
centerfielddj on October 29, 2020 at 12:23 am

It doesn’t even appear that Trump’s response to the Floyd protests played entirely well in the South either, if we are to take the polls in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and elsewhere as a sign. Lord knows there are plenty of things which have caused crucial portions of Trump’s electoral coalition to slide out of his clutches, but he’s not running as strong anywhere in the South as he did in 2016.
MikeInOhio on October 29, 2020 at 7:52 am

It was interesting to go back and re-read your 2016 article, in the context of everything that has happened over the last four years. You ended the article with this:

Because if the Democrats let this become a racial fight between their multicultural base and the white rural counties of the North, that’s a recipe for the political Southification of the entire country. That’s what the GOP has been doing in a gradual way for 36 years, and it’s the basis for Trump’s coalition and for his reelection in 2020.

Avoiding a fight on those terms is essential even though everyone will be demanding it and one party will be pursuing it for all its worth. Once these fights get started they get a life of their own, they snowball, and the political damage becomes entrenched. The Democrats need a plan that prevents eighty or ninety percent of white rural northerners from feeling like they’re the enemy, and continually insisting that they are the enemy is not that plan.

The COVID pandemic has, in many ways, put the Southification question on the back burner for now. But I can’t help but feel as if, lurking in the background right behind COVID, is the fact that this election is also revolving around that racial fight between a Democratic multicultural base and white rural counties. As you mentioned, the GOP is still largely motivated by the racial grievance factor, and with all of the instances we have had to deal with over the last four years related to law enforcement’s killing of African Americans, the whole BLM movement, and the explosion of white nationalist sentiment within the mainstream GOP, it appears that they Southification of the North is well underway, and not likely to be reversed by Democratic wins, but made worse during a Democratic administration.

While it is true that this cycle there will probably be defections by more than a few 2016 Trump voters, I don’t think most of them will defect Trump due to a rejection of the Southification factor. The extreme and unprecedented efforts we have seen by the GOP to lock in minority power are the most glaring examples that national Southification is their one and only goal, and they are willing to blow up the Constitution and two centuries of governing norms to achieve that. And I believe their constituency, even those who might defect this cycle, are fully behind them on this. Issues that were urged for Democrats to pursue, like the antitrust platform you wrote about so often, seem to have been swept from the consciousness of the Democratic Party. This is most certainly due to the fact that we are in a Defcon-1 status to save our democracy. If we win this cycle, including both Houses of Congress, then it will be incumbent on the Democratic Party to simply steamroll the minority at every turn, as they will be using everything within their power, including the currently stacked SC, to stifle every single legislative and executive effort. I hope that elected Democrats, particularly the Senators, are prepared for what is going to be necessary to have any chance of holding our ground against the backlash that we know is going to come. The Southification of the North is well underway, on many fronts, and being supported by ever more strenuous efforts in many Northern states to insure that things like gerrymandering continue to breathe life into its existence.
lilburro on November 1, 2020 at 5:57 am

Related from Ralston:

So how does Trump get to 90,000 in the rurals? Remember he won by 40 points in 2016 and his margin was 58,000 votes. There are now about 40,000 more voters on the rolls, and I still think he tops out at about 80,000, so game over. But could he get to 90,000?

Here’s how hard that is:

If rural turnout is 80 percent, Trump would need to win the rurals by 50 points. Forty was unlikely in 2016; 50 seems crazy in 2020.

If rural turnout got to 85 percent, which I would say is not impossible, Trump would still need to win by more than 45 points. (Right now, GOP ballots are at 55 percent and Democrats at 22 percent.)

Margin right now is 33 points by reg. Am crossing fingers Biden will close a bit of the rural gap over Hillary (who lost rurals by 40 points) and your thesis is right nationwide.
- lilburro on November 1, 2020 at 5:57 am
  
  oops – link here https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

Did We Avoid the Southification of the North

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