Month: November 2020

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Grand Canyon. The photo that I’m using (My own from a visit.) is seen directly below.

I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 9×9 inch canvas panel.

When last seen the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I have now painted the major elements of the painting. The cliffs are now brown, the fauna is green and there is blue in the distance. It is starting to look like something.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was favored to win Pennsylvania, but she famously lost the state by just over 44,000 votes. In 2020, Joe Biden won. They are still counting votes from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia, and Biden’s margins will surely grow, but it appears that his victory will be similar in size to Trump’s 2016 squeaker and far less substantial than the 2018 reelection of Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat.

Before Election Day, I identified 21 Pennsylvania counties that would help give an early indication of the winner. Because mail ballots were counted after Election Day ballots, and the Democrats’ heavy preference for them, it wasn’t possible to use my method for prognostication, but enough results are in now that we can see how Biden prevailed.

In my pre-election model, I divided Pennsylvania into seven regions: the cities (Pittsburgh and Philadelphia), the Philly suburbs, the Northeast (including Biden’s childhood home, Scranton), the Top T (along the central border with New York State), the Central West (including Johnstown), and two counties in the Northwest and Southwest. Each of the 21 counties I chose saw at least a 10 percentage decline in Hillary Clinton’s performance when compared to Barack Obama’s numbers in 2012.

Below, I’ll show you that the numbers in these counties were remarkably stable and regionally consistent Overall Biden either did as well as Clinton or just a bit better.

[For this analysis, all percentages are of the two-party vote (i.e., it excludes third parties) to make it easier to compare different election cycles.]

One of the most interesting facts is the way Biden in 2020 fared better than Clinton in 2016 but fell behind Democratic Gov. Wolf in 2018. (We’ll get to reasons for Wolf’s performance and what it may or may not say about Biden and Trump in a moment.)

In the Top T region, Trump had held Clinton under 30 percent in all four of my highlighted counties. Two years later, when Wolf won reelection, he did significantly better. Biden, however, only managed to crack 30 percent in Warren County. The Trump loyalists that stayed home in 2018 came back out, but Biden did slightly better, possibly because there was no Green Party candidate on the ballot this time.

TOP T	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
BRADFORD	26	-11	34	+8	-3	27	+1	-8
MCKEON	26	-10	31	+6	-4	27	+3	-5
SUSQUEHANNA	28	-11	34	+6	-5	29	+1	-5
WARREN	29	-12	38	+9	-3	30	+1	-8

In the Central West, there was no change at all. Like Clinton, Biden was unable win even a third of the vote in any of the five highlighted counties, but he only lost ground in Elk County, and only by a single percentage point. Interestingly, Gov. Wolf reached 44 percent in both Clinton County and Cambria County (Johnstown), but Biden couldn’t hold those gains. You’ll notice, too, that Biden’s slippage from Wolf’s 2018 results is a couple points worse here than in the Top T counties.

CENTRAL WEST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
CAMBRIA	31	-10	44	+13	+3	31	EVEN	-9
CAMERON	25	-10	35	+10	EVEN	26	EVEN	-10
CLEARFIELD	25	-11	35	+10	-1	25	EVEN	-10
CLINTON	32	-12	44	+11	-1	32	EVEN	-12
ELK	28	-14	38	+10	-4	27	-1	-11

In the Northwestern and Southwestern counties where Clinton did 10 points worse than Obama’s 2012 performance, Gov. Wolf not only wiped out those losses in 2018 but improved the numbers in three of the four, making them all competitive. Biden, however, did about the same as Clinton. Greene County still has not reported a lot of their Democratic-friendly mail ballots, so you can discount its percentages.

NORTHWEST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
LAWRENCE	36	-10	47	+12	+2	35	-1	-11
MERCER	37	-11	45	+8	-3	36	-1	-9

 

SOUTHWEST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
FAYETTE	34	-12	49	+15	+3	33	-1	-16
GREENE	29	-12	46	+17	+5	24	-5	-22

The first sign of Biden’s victory emerges in the Northeast. Notice that Biden’s slippage from Wolf’s 2018 performance is only seven points in three of these counties. Also significant, he improved on Clinton’s numbers by two or more percentage points in six of the eight highlighted counties.

NORTHEAST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
CARBON	32	-14	44	+11	-3	34	+2	-10
COLUMBIA	33	-10	44	+11	+1	31	+1	-10
LACKAWANNA	52	-12	65	+14	+2	54	+2	-11
LUZERNE	40	-12	52	+12	EVEN	43	+3	-10
NORTHUMBERLAND	28	-12	37	+9	-3	30	+3	-7
SCHUYLKILL	28	-16	44	+17	+1	30	+2	-7
SULLIVAN	25	-11	37	+12	+1	26	+1	-11
WYOMING	30	-13	39	+9	-4	32	+2	-7

There are still outstanding votes in the Philly suburbs, particularly in Bucks County, so Biden’s numbers will get stronger here. But we can already see that there’s not the same degree of decline from 2018 in this region. These are also really big counties, so a two or three percentage point improvement on Clinton’s 2016 numbers adds up to a lot of extra votes.

PHILLY SUBURBS	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
BUCKS	50	EVEN	59	+9	+9	52	+1	-7
CHESTER	55	+5	62	+7	+12	58	+3	-4
DELAWARE	62	+1	67	+6	+7	63	+2	-4
MONTGOMERY	61	+4	68	+7	+11	63	+2	-5

Both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have enough outstanding votes that we can’t very usefully make comparisons yet. It’s notable, however, that Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, is already a little better for the Democratic nominee than it was four years ago. Perhaps Philly will eventually move into positive territory as well, but there’s no giant surge in either city, and the results are nowhere near what Wolf achieved in 2018. This is not a case of energized minority turnout making the difference.

CITY COUNTY	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)	2020 PCT	2020 vs. 2016	2020 vs. 2018
ALLEGHENY	59	EVEN	68	+10	+10	60	+1	-9
PHILADELPHIA	84	-2	88	+4	+2	82	-3	-7

The picture that emerges is fairly clear. Biden did slightly better than Clinton in the Top T section of the state and perhaps slightly worse in the Southwest and Northwest. This is basically a wash that is mostly significant because Trump needed to improve in his strongholds, and he failed. Biden wanted to improve on Clinton’s numbers in the cities, but if he did so it was only modestly, and he was carried to victory by the Northeast and the Philly suburbs.

My main observation about these less-than-final results is that there is a huge amount of swing in the state in the Republican areas when it comes to voting for governor, but very little when it comes to Trump.

Since Trump will most likely never be on the ballot again, this presents some opportunities for the Democrats. Of course, the Republicans might find that the suburbs will swing their way a bit without Trump holding them down, but that didn’t happen in 2018.

What’s not controversial is that Trump runs up huge numbers in rural areas. But that doesn’t mean those voters are strong or loyal Republicans. They didn’t come out to oppose Wolf. These voters like Trump, but they won’t necessarily turn out for a different Republican. (It’s true 2018 was an off year election and a good one for Democrats, but the differences in turnout in heavily pro-Trump areas suggests that without the former reality show star atop the ticket, it’ll be harder to generate comparable enthusiasm for a different Republican in 2024.) It’s also notable that Clinton’s alleged unlikability with the “deplorables” wasn’t unique to her. Biden didn’t move them much either. His gains with Republicans came in affluent counties with lots of highly educated professionals. He ran stronger in the Northeast than Clinton, possibly aided by his familial roots there.

Trump clearly energized his most fervent supporters in a way that’s in keeping with what’s been seen around the country. It suggests that he’ll have a receptive audience with these fervent supporters as a critic of any Biden administration especially if he keeps a high public profile. But Pennsylvania’s Republican Party has to plan for a future without Trump, and with their reliance on him for rural strength and the damage Trump did to their brand in the suburbs, they have a very big problem.

Well, that was stressful. So stressful, in fact, that I’ve been basically unable to write for days. But, hey, it was all worth it because Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are highly preferable to Donald Trump and Mike Pence. There’s a lot of credit to go around for this victory, and plenty to unpack about what the results of the House, Senate and state/local races mean for the country going forward. But, for now, I just want to exhale a bit for the first time in four years.

It won’t last long because, as a nation, we’ll be white-knuckling it all the way to Inauguration Day, as our current president is seriously sick in the head and facing a future behind bars. There will also be two special Senate elections in Georgia in early January that will determine whether Mitch McConnell has veto power or not over Biden’s cabinet picks, judicial nominees, and legislative agenda.

I’ve spent most of my time analytically, looking at what happened in Pennsylvania, and I’ll have a piece on that up later today, hopefully. I think you’ll be interested in the results. They should create a bit of a roadmap for the Democrats going forward.

In the meantime, just celebrate. Even a hamstrung Biden administration will be able to do a lot, and particularly on the COVID-19 crisis. We all need to look on the bright side and bring some can-do positive energy to getting this country back to sanity.

As of noon on Wednesday, it’s looking probable but not certain that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump. While it’s too early to call the race, it’s also too early for quick takes about why the election was so close, or the polls were so wrong once again. Biden’s lead in the popular vote is likely to widen. The reason? There are tens of millions of votes still to count, and overall, they seem to heavily favor Biden.

For example, in New Jersey, all registered voters were sent mail ballots and, provided they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 10, they will count. Biden is currently carrying the Garden State by a 61-38 percent margin. A variation on this theme will go on in almost every state, mainly because the U.S. postal service was slow to deliver ballots in state after state.

U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan held a hearing today to discuss why the USPS didn’t comply with his order to round up undelivered ballots before the close of polls on Election Day. The Washington Post reports that “Nearly 7 percent of ballots in U.S. Postal Service sorting facilities on Tuesday were not processed on time for submission to election officials.”

👀New USPS data filed in federal court this morning.

Incoming ballot delivery scores 11/3:
– Atlanta, 82.2%
– Central PA, 61.3%
– Philadelphia, 66.3%
– Detroit, 78.9%
– Greensboro (NC), 72.9%
– Lakeland (Wisc.), 76.8%

** These are completed ballots sent to election offices. **

— (((Jacob Bogage))) (@jacobbogage) November 4, 2020

Some of the votes will never be counted, but many will, and they will add to Biden’s popular vote total and possibly change the results in closely contested Senate, House as well as  state and local races.

For example, in Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic congressmen Conor Lamb and Matt Cartwright are both trailing in the current tally, but may prevail once all the mail-in votes are counted. The same is true for challenger Eugene DePasquale in the state’s Harrisburg-based 10^th District.

As more votes roll in, the error we see in the polling will be reduced, and it could even prove critical to determining whether Trump or Biden won Pennsylvania, as well as the handful of other outstanding states such as Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Over time, Biden’s lead will grow, and the apparent polling error will decline. It will even change some early emerging narratives about the election, like what went wrong for the Democrats in Miami-Dade County in Florida. No doubt, Biden did very poorly there compared to Hillary Clinton, but with as many as 27 percent of absentee ballots not delivered on time, the current margins are distorted.

Even with Biden, likely to win, and Democrats hurting in down-ballot races, not all the votes have not been counted. A shameful number never will be, but the results won’t look as bad in a week as they look today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Midweek on a major election week is always a bit complicated. But somehow managed not to forget! So there’s one positive. As I feared, this is going to be that nail biter electoral college scenario that seemed plausible, but that none of us wanted. The potential that regaining the Senate Majority (or even parity) is also looking to have been, as I feared, too heavy a lift this year. Votes are still being counted as I write this, and there is that Georgia Senatorial runoff election to look forward to, come January. So, we’re still in turbulent waters. My 2012 vintage Merlot is ready to be opened regardless of outcome, as either way there is some fitting symbolism.

Until then, it is important to breathe, and remain calm. So, I am compiling some soothing music for you all. I am a bit of an Ambient Music fan, and so some of what I will share is recycled from the past. It seems needed now.

Let’s start with a mid-1990s Aphex Twin track called Alberto Balsalm, except covered by a university’s steel drum ensemble:

And here’s the original, with some relaxing photography:

Here’s Xtal by Aphex Twin. This video was filmed by someone in Budapest. I know a number of these locations from when I visited there some years back. This video was filmed in 2008, when I think a lot of us (including our friends in Hungary) were more hopeful.

I have been a Brian Eno fan since my first David Bowie LP. Anyone who would play instruments listed as “cricket menace” seemed to be intriguing. This is the first track from what is considered the landmark Ambient Music album.

I always find that calming.

The jukebox is open. So is the bar. Drink responsibly. And remember that we were prepared for a red mirage in what was once the Blue Wall. Take a deep breath. Exhale. We all have done what we can. We have to wait.

Take care of yourselves and each other.

Pennsylvania is ground zero for the 2020 presidential election. Currently, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gives Donald Trump an 11 percent chance of winning the election, but during a Sunday appearance on ABC’s This Week, he said the president should be favored to win if he carries the Keystone State.

Supporters of Joe Biden can comfort themselves that Silver gives the Democratic nominee an 85 percent chance of carrying Pennsylvania. Still, Biden’s 50.2 to 45.5 percent average of polls lead is barely outside the margin of error for most surveys.

Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was favored to win in Pennsylvania, too, and lost the state by just over 44,000 votes. With this history and this context, all eyes will be on Pennsylvania on Election Night, but how will we know if Biden has prevented Trump from pulling off a second straight upset?

If you want to know whether Biden will win Pennsylvania in 2020, you first have to understand why Clinton lost it in 2016. It wasn’t because the state’s two big cities, with their large minority populations, didn’t turn out for her. Her net advantage (108,137 votes) from Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County was 17,489 votes larger than Barack Obama’s had been in 2012, which more than canceled out the 17,062 fewer votes she netted out of Philadelphia. Considering that Obama won that election comfortably by a 52 to 47 percent margin, this should have been enough.

It also wasn’t a result of underperformance in the Philadelphia’s suburban counties. She matched Obama’s 2012 returns in Bucks and Delaware counties and greatly surpassed them in Montgomery and Chester counties.

What cost Clinton was a disastrous collapse in rural counties and a drop of support in Democratic counties in the Northeast portion of the state. There were 21 counties where Clinton performed at least ten percentage points worse than Barack Obama in 2012. If Trump is going to reprise his stunning 2016 upset, this is where he’ll need to do it.

It’ll be tough. Most of the Republican gains from 2016 disappeared in the 2018 gubernatorial election when incumbent Democratic governor Tom Wolf defeated Republican challenger Scott Wagner by a whopping 57.8 to 40.7 percent margin. Trump will have to count on a special bond with these voters.

Since mail ballots in Pennsylvania cannot be counted before Election Day and can be received up to three days late if postmarked by November 3, the Election Night totals will be incomplete and heavily tilted to in-person votes. Still, I’ll be examining these 21 counties to see if Trump has held his 2016 coalition together and has a real chance to carry the state.

I’ve sorted counties into regions to see trends in how they moved from 2012 to 2016, and then from 2016 to 2018.

In 1986, while working on Bob Casey Sr.’s successful run for Pennsylvania governor, James Carville famously quipped, “Between Paoli (in the Philly suburbs) and Penn Hills (in the Pittsburgh suburbs), Pennsylvania is Alabama without the blacks.” This central region of the state is alternatively referred to as Pennsyltucky (in a nod to its Appalachian culture) or “the T” in reference to its shape. The top of the ‘T’ runs along the border with New York State, and it’s here where the Democrats have seen the most slippage.

[For this analysis, all percentages are of the two-party vote (i.e., it excludes third parties) to make it easier to compare different election cycles.]

In the chart below, you see four “Top T” counties where Clinton did at least ten points worse than Obama’s 2012 performance. Trump held Clinton under 30 percent in all of them, and while Tom Wolf clawed back most of the lost support in 2018, he still couldn’t match the 2012 results. Susquehanna County has over a thousand active natural gas wells, making it a prime area for Trump’s pro-fracking pitch.

TOP T	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
BRADFORD	26	-11	34	+8	-3
MCKEON	26	-10	31	+6	-4
SUSQUEHANNA	28	-11	34	+6	-5
WARREN	29	-12	38	+9	-3

In the stem of “the T,” Clinton fared worst in an area I refer to here as the “Central West.” Except for Cambria County (home of Johnstown), these are very low population areas. Obama didn’t do well in this region, but he earned more than 40 percent in two counties. Clinton couldn’t get even a third of the vote in any of them.

CENTRAL WEST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
CAMBRIA	31	-10	44	+13	+3
CAMERON	25	-10	35	+10	EVEN
CLEARFIELD	25	-11	35	+10	-1
CLINTON	32	-12	44	+11	-1
ELK	28	-14	38	+10	-4

Unlike in the Top T counties, however, Tom Wolf fully erased the Republicans’ gains from 2012 in the Central West.

Outside of “the T” proper, Trump made significant gains in two northwesternand two southwestern counties. In 2018, Tom Wolf not only reversed those gains but improved on Obama’s 2012 numbers in three of the four, making them all competitive.

NORTHWEST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
LAWRENCE	36	-10	47	+12	+2
MERCER	37	-11	45	+8	-3

 

SOUTHWEST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
FAYETTE	34	-12	49	+15	+3
GREENE	29	-12	46	+17	+5

Wolf also did a good job of patching up the damage Trump did in the Northeast. He restored Lackawanna County (home to Biden’s childhood home, Scranton) as a Democratic stronghold and flipped Luzerne back into the blue column.

NORTHEAST	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
CARBON	32	-14	44	+11	-3
COLUMBIA	33	-10	44	+11	+1
LACKAWANNA	52	-12	65	+14	+2
LUZERNE	40	-12	52	+12	EVEN
NORTHUMBERLAND	28	-12	37	+9	-3
SCHUYLKILL	28	-16	44	+17	+1
SULLIVAN	25	-11	37	+12	+1
WYOMING	30	-13	39	+9	-4

A straightforward way to apply these numbers on Election Night: Biden getting less than 30 percent of the two-party vote in any of the countries on the list spells trouble for the Democrat. The closer Biden comes to Wolf’s numbers, the better, and in the unlikely event that he exceeds Wolf’s performance in a county or two, that’s a sure sign of trouble for Trump.

The counties in the T and the west are important, but the Northeast has significantly more population, including some Manhattan commuter bedroom communities.  As the tables show, the Northeast also has more historic swing. Luzerne and Schuylkill counties will be particularly telling, as the first can flip from blue to red and back, and the second’s 33-point oscillation between 2016 and 2018 was the biggest in the state.

On the whole, Trump will probably need to do better in these 21 counties than in 2016 to offset the Republicans’ erosion in the Philly suburbs. Trump’s challenge becomes immediately apparent when looking at the comparison between the 2016 and 2018 elections.

PHILLY SUBURBS	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
BUCKS	50	EVEN	59	+9	+9
CHESTER	55	+5	62	+7	+12
DELAWARE	62	+1	67	+6	+7
MONTGOMERY	61	+4	68	+7	+11

There’s a good chance Biden will also bank more votes out of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia than Clinton managed in 2016, which would make Trump’s task all that much harder.

CITY COUNTY	2016 PCT	2016 vs. 2012	2018 PCT	2018 vs. 2016	NET GAIN/LOSS (2012-2018)
ALLEGHENY	59	EVEN	68	+10	+10
PHILADELPHIA	84	-2	88	+4	+2

If Biden can come close to Wolf’s numbers in the cities and suburbs, it will be light’s out for Trump’s chances of carrying the state. But if black turnout is disappointing or Latino voters show a little more support for Trump and Biden’s numbers there aren’t any better than Clinton’s from 2016, then it will come down to how the president is faring in his strongholds.

We’ll have to wait until all the mail ballots are counted to get a complete picture, and that may take a week or more. Yet, keeping a focus on these specific counties will help us get a sense of where the final result is headed.

The crimes of Donald Trump and his cronies should be prosecuted because they are crimes, but there’s a more important reason, which Peter Baker of the New York Times touches on here:

The nightmarish scenario of widespread doubt and denial of the legitimacy of the election would cap a period in American history when truth itself has seemed at stake under a president who has strayed so far from the normal bounds that he creates what allies call his own reality. Even if the election ends with a clear victory or defeat for Mr. Trump, scholars and players alike say the very concept of public trust in an established set of facts necessary for the operation of a democratic society has eroded during his tenure with potentially long-term ramifications.

“You can mitigate the damage, but you can’t bring it back to 100 percent the way it was before,” said Lee McIntyre, the author of “Post-Truth” and a philosopher at Boston University. “And I think that’s going to be Trump’s legacy. I think there’s going to be lingering damage to the processes by which we vet truths for decades. People are going to be saying, ‘Oh, that’s fake news.’ The confusion between skepticism and denialism, the idea that if you don’t want to believe something, you don’t have to believe it, that’s really damaging and that’s going to last.”

I see the Trump administration in the same rough category as South Africa’s Apartheid regime, and we have plenty to learn from postwar Germany, too. Before we can move on, we have to reckon with what happened. We have to document everything exhaustively. We have to hold people accountable. We have to enact reforms that will prevent a repeat. Above all, we can’t just say everything is okay because the people woke up and voted against the thing they had voted for four years earlier. This isn’t a political dispute. This is the near destruction of our country,

First and foremost, Trump cannot be allowed to run for president again. That should be impossible for him because he’ll be in prison, but to be sure he should be impeached and convicted even after he’s out of office so that he is never again allowed to hold a position of trust or power in the federal government.

If we don’t treat this as a national horror that must defined as such, then Baker’s predictions will prove true, and we can’t allow that without a fight.