There’s not much hope that 17 Republican senators will join the 50 Democratic senators to convict Donald Trump at the conclusion of his impeachment trial, but there are some curious tea leaves that make it hard to be certain how individuals will vote. As The Hill reports, there has been no pressure to acquit from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell or any of his top lieutenants.

Now, this doesn’t seem to matter since 44 Republicans voted for a motion introduced before the trial by Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky that the Senate doesn’t have jurisdiction to impeach a former official. It’s hard to see how a senator could convict someone if the trial is illegal under the Constitution.

But, there is another way of looking at the vote on Sen. Paul’s motion. It’s not possible to excuse Trump’s behavior or to exonerate him on the merits. So, any senator wanting to reserve the right to acquit him needed to create an excuse. Saying the proceedings were illegitimate provides that excuse.

It seems obvious from reading through the comments of Republican senators in The Hill article that some people who voted for the Paul motion are still at least theoretically open to conviction. For example, Mitch McConnell voted for Paul’s motion and yet when his office was asked on Wednesday if he might convict Trump, his spokesman referred reporters to an older statement from the Minority Leader, “I want to listen to the arguments. I think that’s what we ought to do. That’s what I said before it started. That’s still my view.”

Then there is Rob Portman of Ohio. He also voted that the Senate has no jurisdiction. But on Wednesday he said he has received no official guidance: “Colleagues have stood up and expressed their views, but they’re not representing leadership. … [McConnell] has said, ‘I think this is a vote of conscience.’”

Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota has argued that the trial is unconstitutional, but also said “I expect the President will get my vote for acquittal and will get acquitted. That being said, there’s a reason why they have 16 hours to make their case – they being the House Managers…”

If the trial is unconstitutional and that’s the end of the story, then this isn’t a vote of conscience and there isn’t a reason for the House Managers to put on a case. But that’s not how Republican senators are acting and it’s not the message leadership is sending.

GOP leadership isn’t whipping members to vote one way or another. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), McConnell’s No. 2, acknowledged there were ongoing conversations but stressed that they were not part of an effort to persuade undecided Republican senators.

“You know, not really,” Thune said, asked if leadership was requesting members check in with them on how they will vote.

“People are having conversations,” he added. “You get a sense of where people are headed. … But nothing formal, nothing organized.”

This is quite a bit different from what we’d expect if they were prepping us to accept an acquittal based on the illegitimacy of the trial rather than the conduct of the ex-president.

Now, maybe the message is confusing because the Republicans are divided, but it’s clear that the official line is that it’s permissible to convict Trump even if you’ve already voted that the process is unconstitutional. That may seem weird to you, but you don’t have a Republican brain.

In any case, the final vote count is fluid. A lot still depends on McConnell. He could fall back on the Paul motion to justify acquittal, or he could vote to convict and give thereby give some cover for others to do the same.

I know what I think is more likely, but I still am curious to see how it turns out.