As Politico’s Playbook puts it, thanks to Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia’s support, President Joe Biden will soon “sign into law the greatest expansion of the welfare state since LBJ,” auguring what the Washington Post calls “seismic shifts in U.S. politics.” The COVID-19 American Rescue Plan is a progressive triumph which is scarcely blemished by Manchin’s insistence that it be slightly less generous in its stimulus payments and not include a $15/hour minimum wage. To begin with, Biden claims it will cut childhood poverty in half. Imagine if that is even close to true.
In New York magazine, Ed Kilgore explains why there’s reason to hope that Biden is correct. Under the provisions of the bill, a “family of four” will receive a stimulus payment of “$5,600, and a two-parent family with three kids and a dependent adult would receive $8,400.” The Expanded Child Tax Credit will increased from $3,000 to $3,600.
Less direct and tangible — but vitally important to some parents — are provisions in the House-passed stimulus bill aimed at boosting the supply of child-care resources, improving access to affordable health care, and helping reopen schools. And some families, of course, will benefit from supplemental federal unemployment insurance, housing assistance, small-business loans, and other items in the overall package.
The bill is a major bailout of the child care industry, which has been hammered by the pandemic. With $15 billion for child care subsidies, the package also helps consumers, and it invests $450 million for domestic violence services. Struggling mothers will also find cheaper rates in the Obamacare marketplace, and a 15 percent increase in food stamp benefits. There’s $25 billion allocated for aid to renters at risk of eviction and utility assistance.
To get a sense of the size of this bill, consider that $1 billion is provided to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services just for increasing confidence in vaccination programs. There is massive aid to small businesses and $130 billion to help K-8 schools reopen. Whether you want to be a lab technician testing for COVID-19 antibodies or a HVAC contractor, there will be jobs galore created by the American Rescue Plan. Once the pandemic eases and people take their savings for cancelled summer camps and vacations, the pent-up demand will create another wave of jobs.
None of this would be happening without Joe Manchin, whose vote was essential for passing the bill in the Senate. He may even come around on the filibuster, at least to an extent.
In politics there are no permanent enemies and no permanent allies, just permanent interests, Saul Alinsky used to insist. When push came to shove, Manchin and other centrist Democrats came through and progressives should be praising them to the skies right now.
I agree and yet am still perplexed by Manchin’s obstinacy. On what planet are his tweaks good policy or good politics? Even for him alone? It’s seems he stays in office through theatrics. Object to something, tweak some liberals without doing too much harm. Far better than having him on the other team but if Democrats knew how to message I don’t think it would be necessary. Old Joe could just say he were doing the work of the regular man and woman in a world where Democrats understood politics.
“Far better than having him on the other team…” I think this is the heart of the matter. Manchin got elected to the Senate in a state that voted for Trump by more than 40 points. If tweaking a $1.9 trillion-with-a-T bill that is the single biggest piece of progressive legislation in decades and will apparently do more to reduce child poverty than any bill in US history so that it’s marginally worse is the price of Manchin’s (decisive) vote, then that’s one of the smallest prices paid in the history of progressive legislation.
What’s more, Manchin then went on a “victory tour” of all the networks (including Fox News) and 1) praised the final bill (thereby giving it the “stamp” of moderation), and 2) talked about the *need* for filibuster reform.
If he’s talking filibuster reform, I’m chilling a bottle of Champaign. To be opened when it happens.
Manchin has the dual distinction of being insufferable but also incredibly good for a senator from an R +30 or whatever state. He’s miles ahead of where his replacement R senator would be, and really the Dems are fortunate he doesn’t vote against them on most important issues. When contrasted with Sinema, he’s much better. Sinema is from a purple and rapidly blueing state and she acts like she’s from Idaho. I still think that the Dems will end the filibuster to pass certain bills so what happened to Obama doesn’t happen with Biden. Also, Biden already most progressive president ever.
I’m happy Joe 1 and Joe from WV are both happy. This bill sounds fantastic no denying that. But now we need to attack a few niggling matters like climate change and voting rights. How we do that with a filibuster is the problem.
Fortunately Manchin used his moment in the sun to go on all the networks (including Fox News) and talk about the need for filibuster “reform”. I’ll take that as a sign that Manchin is preparing to “save” the filibuster by reforming it so that Republicans have to pay so high a price for using it that a version of HR 1 not too different from the current bill stands a good chance of becoming law in the next few months.
I hope they figure out some way to pass the Voting Rights bill, but most other things on the agenda – like climate change – scare me. Muscling through a climate change bill is absolutely necessary, but it is sure to be wildly unpopular. Can we afford to lose the 2024 election over higher gas prices? A lot of people seem to think that we can solve this problem simply by going after the big. bad oil companies. We cannot. We are all going to have to make sacrifices and make uncomfortable changes.
The reason the problem has festered for so long is because the politicians know this is a loser politically. Can we convince ourselves to make sacrifices for our children and grandchildren?
Both of those issues will be a tough lift and perhaps moving slower is better. Still both those issues need work now, promises for a little now and more later are not likely to good enough. And the filibuster is definitely an obstacle to getting anything done of any substance unless someone figures a way around it. The plus this issue may have new job growth, and it could be substantial. Perhaps it should be matched up with infrastructure improvement like electric cars and rail improvements. We should become familiar with the Green New Deal.
The voting rights bill is really important, but I think we can get through 2022 without it. There are a lot of voter suppression bills but none of them are original ideas or have proven particularly effective. (Gerrymandering is a different story.) A case can be made that backlash against these laws now drives turnout higher. And we can use those bills as evidence in our central campaign theme: Democrats are for democracy. Republicans oppose it.
A lot can be done on some issues without legislation and climate is one of them, Obama showed how well you can use the EPA, rewriting regulations in some cases or by simply enforcing existing regulations. Biden can do a lot with anti-trust using the existing regulation and laws, too. They can quietly do good government. Not sexy, but it can be effective and help solve problems.
At the end of the day, everybody is going to hate a big climate change bill. It won’t be good enough for the environmentalists so they will oppose it like the left opposed Obamacare. It will be under fire for launching a crash program building nuclear plants. Energy prices have to rise substantially. Is it better to ban coal first or fracking? Every tradeoff will be painful. The jobs will be a big benefit, but there will also be substantial job losses. As always there will be a huge gap between the skills of a coal miner or oilfield worker and the skills required in the new technology jobs created.
When we do pass the big climate bill, there are going to be a number of congresspersons who will have to vote for a bill that will cost them their seat. Obamacare only passed because a dozen Democrats in the House committed political suicide with their vote. It will be the same with climate. I can’t ask any Democrat to do that as long as a Republican is the alternative.
Yeah, I agree that the voter suppression won’t have a substantial impact on 2022. Our voters are now in the suburbs, and suburban people will vote regardless of the stipulations. It’s the rural/older folk who have more difficulty turning out, and GA showed that more turnout actually hurt Dems.
With respect, I disagree. When victories and defeats are as narrow as so many of the House and Senate races were in 2020, it’s not simply a matter of “our voters are now in the suburbs”. First, cities are still, for the most part, Democratic strongholds. The suburban voters who flipped over the past four years could easily flip back. And Biden’s victory also owes something to his ability to narrow margins in the rural areas of states like PA and WI.