I’m not sure exactly how it will play out, but I now expect that the Supreme Court will severely restrict access to legal abortion during its next term. That’s the conclusion I draw from their decision to hear a case on a Mississippi law that bans most abortions after fifteen weeks, including in cases of rape and incest.
The law was struck down in November 2018 by a federal district judge, and that ruling was upheld in December 2019 by very conservative 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals. The Roberts Court could have just left things there, but they did not. That indicates that they intend to change the status quo.
The report from CNN suggests that the Court will go after the “viability” issue in some way. This makes sense, because it’s the issue that forced the 5th Circuit’s hand in ruling the law unconstitutional.
“In an unbroken line dating to Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court’s abortion cases have established (and affirmed and re-affirmed) a woman’s right to choose an abortion before viability,” a panel of judges on the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals previously held.
“States may regulate abortion procedures prior to viability so long as they do not impose an undue burden on the woman’s right, but they may not ban abortions,” the appeals court wrote, concluding that “the law at issue is a ban.”
It seems like a logical time, too. There will never be a popular time to gut Roe v. Wade, but there are times of greater and lesser political peril for the conservative movement. Choosing a midterm year when a Democrat is in the White House and the Democrats control Congress is about they best they can do to mitigate any potential fallout. Generally, the first midterm for a new president is bad for his party, mainly because the opposition is more engaged. This is doubly true when the president’s party is defending majorities in Congress. The Republicans enter the 2022 election cycle with innate advantages that can cushion any blow they receive for severely restricting women’s reproductive rights, and that’s probably why the Roberts Court is scheduling things this way. I definitely don’t see them taking up the case only to reaffirm a woman’s right to choose.
This was always going to happen once the Republicans got Amy Coney Barrett on the bench. If nothing changes between now and next year with respect to the composition of the Court, the day will finally come for anti-choice movement. They may not get everything they want, but they’ll get a victory and it will be a disaster for American women.
I think that if the decision comes in June 2022, and it is bad enough, it will boost Dem voter turnout in the fall, which might be crucial to avoid certain 2024 decide-it-in-the-house scenarios.
I’m not a silver-lining kind of guy. Defeat is defeat and it sucks – particularly, in this case, for women. But I guess it might help turn things around long-term. Nothing is permanent.
No, defeat is not defeat. There are tactical defeats and if anything ever was, this would be it. Talk about “a bridge too far” overreach, Republicans will rue the day. Short of pulling democracy out by the roots, they’re going to reap one hell of a whirlwind.
I wonder if Breyer is planning on pulling a Ginsburg so that the Conservatives can go up 7-2 so the coming Republican dictatorship is all but guaranteed. Christ, can you imagine what kind of conservative a Hawley would appoint to the court?
Not following your logic.
Breyer, the 900 year old liberal on the Supreme Court, pulling a Ginsburg by staying on the court until death instead of retiring so we can appoint a not-900-year-old liberal to take his place before the Republicans win back the Senate/White House.
I don’t think so. Give him til the end of this term.
Something’s coming down. Exactly what is hard to say because the court is not easy to predict. Assuming states get the right to severely limit or ban early term abortions, I’m sure we’ll see work arounds. Resources will go into a sort of underground railroad to bring women to safe states where they can get safe and legal abortions. Since Democrats are in charge of the FDA, we’ll probably see approval of the morning after pill too. Will become something that can be bought over the counter. I don’t think states can prevent that.
Abortion “bans” codified into law will not actually reduce abortions, but rather drive the procedure underground and, in many cases, make it much more hazardous. That said, I never really thought conservatives were really interested in reducing unintended pregnancies and, by extension, the rate of abortions. If they were, then they would be solidly behind ready access to birth control, accurate sex education and family planning. In reality, it’s more about exerting control over women.