Get Your Shit Together

If you’re struggling with addiction, I’m here to tell you firsthand that you can beat it and live a happy life.

I almost never talk about personal stuff on this blog because people on the internet are mean, but I think it is important to announce that today marks seven years I’ve gone without a sip of alcohol.  I’m not telling you this to toot my own horn. I’m a private person and probably would prefer if no one knew I ever had a cause to quit drinking. But I did. I drank every evening to make sure I didn’t dream because I had PTSD from a pit bull attack that put me and my Newfoundland dog Buster in the hospital. I would relive it all over again in my dreams, and it was just as terrifying each time as the real thing. For a while, I just tried not to sleep at all. I should have sought psychological help but I was stupid and went the self-medicating route.

Turns out if you do that for a decade straight, it starts to kill you. It also turns out that you can’t quit when you want to. A lot of people follow a similar route to opiate addiction. I’m lucky that I’m alive.

Anyway, on September 11, 2014, I finished off what little was left of a bottle of vodka and I did not go to the liquor store to get more. After about 10 days, my body revolted and I wound up in the hospital, followed by a brief stint in rehab. Fortunately, I never relapsed (knock on wood) and haven’t really struggled with it either. It took six months for me to feel something close to normal, but the nightmares didn’t come back and before long my health improved.

I’m telling you this because I know there are people out there who realize that they need to quit drinking (or drugging) and don’t feel like they can do it. It might be harder for you. You might have some problems that dwarf anything I was dealing with. But I’m here to tell you that it can be done and it’s totally worth it. Whatever addiction has you in its grip is really the devil because it’s trying to kill you but it has you convinced that it’s your only friend, or only way to cope. You have to treat it like your enemy, not something you’re reluctant to live without.

You won’t live long if you don’t do something, and you’ll start losing the trust and affection of the people who love and are our counting on you. So, get started soon, and I promise that you can do it and you’ll be so thankful later that you got your shit together.

9/11 Rant

This is the worst day of the year, and I don’t feel like dwelling on it.

If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. That’s good advice, right? That’s kind of my motto for anniversaries of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. A certain degree of respect for the people we’ve lost both on that day and in the twenty years since precludes me from venting my full wrath about how this country reacted. Most of the time, I’m fuming mad about something that traces directly back to the Bush administration and their War on Truth and Terror.

The cynic in me says we deserve to have a mistaken drone attack on the front-page of the New York Times today. We don’t learn from our mistakes. But horrible mistakes are not what is ruining us.  The problem is that stupidity rules the day, every day. Instead of making an itemized list, I’ll simply ask you to do this.

Imagine if you could have seen the headlines from September 11, 2020 on the evening of September 11, 2001. Imagine how much worse you would have felt.

That’s how I feel all the time. I don’t celebrate today, much less commemorate it. This is the worst day of the year, and I hate it.

Saturday Painting Palooza Vol.839

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Chincoteague, Virginia scene. The photo that I’m using (My own from a recent visit.) is seen directly below.


I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 5×7 inch canvas panel.

When last seen the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.


Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I have now added paint to the large elements of the scene. Note the blue of the far distance. More next week.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.


I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

How the Failure of Bush’s Presidency Led to MAGA

Rather than re-think their policy priorities, the GOP became focused solely on grievance politics and culture wars.

When the media started obsessing over the drop in Biden’s approval rating – practically declaring him a lame duck president – I thought it would be interesting to look at what happened to the approval ratings of past presidents during their first nine months in office. I found exactly what I expected.

According to the aggregate of polls at FiveThirtyEight, Biden began with an approval rating of 53% and has dropped 8 points to 45%. Here’s how it looks for previous presidents during their first 233 days in office:

  • Trump went from 45.4% to 38.8%, a drop of 6.6
  • Obama went from 68% to 51.1%, a drop of 16.9
  • Clinton went from 54% to 44.2%, a drop of 9.8

George W. Bush’s approval rating doesn’t provide a good comparison because it skyrocketed about this time after the 9/11 terrorist attack.

What this data shows is that there is nothing unusual about a drop in presidential approval ratings once they stop campaigning and start governing.

But while I was looking at those numbers, I noted something else. When George W. Bush left office, his approval rating was historically low at 27.8. Of the previous 12 presidents, the only one who even comes close is Richard Nixon, whose approval rating was 24.8 when he resigned over the whole Watergate scandal. Even Trump ended his one term at 38.7. For the other two-term presidents, Obama left office with a 54.8 approval rating, Clinton was at 63.2 and Reagan was at 63.1.

Even most Republicans disapproved of Bush’s performance at the end of his second term. But that’s hardly surprising – given the debacle of Katrina, the war in Iraq, and the collapse of the economy. On every front imaginable, GOP policies had been an abysmal failure.

It was in that context that we elected this country’s first African American president – who exuded not only hope, but competence. He had gained notoriety for his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention, where he said things like this:

In 2008 Democrats not only won the presidential race, they picked up 8 seats in the Senate and 21 in the House. In other words, Republicans were in deep trouble. Their policies had failed miserably, leading to a huge electoral loss. This was a critical moment for the GOP.

At that point, it would have made sense for Republicans to step back and re-examine their policy priorities, just as Democrats had done after the 1972 election. On the other hand, it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if the GOP had simply doubled-down on their policy priorities with new messaging (ie, continue to be the post-truth party). They did neither. Michael Grunwald explained what they DID do:

[They held] secret meetings led by House GOP whip Eric Cantor (in December 2008) and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (in early January 2009) in which they laid out their daring (though cynical and political) no-honeymoon strategy of all-out resistance to a popular President-elect during an economic emergency. “If he was for it,” former Ohio Senator George Voinovich explained, “we had to be against it.”

That is how the GOP became the post-policy party focused solely on grievance politics and culture wars. In other words, it is why they went from the party of Ronald Reagan to MAGA nonsense.

Prepare for Madness

Biden’s new employer vaccination mandate will cause a completely unhinged and unpredictable reaction on the right.

It took a second for the right to react to President Biden’s bold announcement on Thursday that large employers must assure that their employees are vaccinated or face substantial financial penalties. The sweep of the policy seemed to catch everyone by surprise. The National Review meekly opined that while his goals were worthy, perhaps Biden had exceeded his authority and should be overruled by the Supreme Court.

By late Thursday afternoon , however, the right’s response was taking a firmer form. Now it was a matter of Biden treating “millions of American citizens as if they’re nothing more than vermin.” Now there should be a campaign of mass civil disobedience.

https://twitter.com/Surabees/status/1436088582289100804

JD Vance is a Yale Law graduate, Iraq War veteran, venture capitalist, nationally famous author and candidate for U.S. Senate from Ohio He’s a favorite of Tucker Carlson and has been endorsed by the head of the House Republican Study Committee, Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, former Trump National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and former Trump U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer. He once was a harsh critic of Donald Trump but he’s clearly channeling him now in an effort to win the crowded contest for the Republican nomination.

The anti-vaccination posture is obviously the “correct” one to adopt for a Republican primary if you’re seeking the attention and support of the MAGA horde. So, Vance’s stance here will probably be standard in many GOP primaries, although the “civil” part of disobedience will likely become the squishy moderate position.

Conservatives Think We’re Just Like Them But We’re Not

They project their own bad motives on us, and it makes them act even worse.

Defensive projection is a psychological concept that refers to the human tendency to attribute one’s own unacceptable urges and behaviors to another person. Usually, this is understood as a way of alleviating internal discomfort and also of avoiding confronting the truth about oneself. But it’s also something else. We have to guess about what other people are thinking and what motives lie behind their actions. Our best reference point is what we’d likely feel or do in similar circumstances. If our feelings or actions would be unacceptable, then we’re likely to think other people would have a similarly problematic reaction. But this is often untrue. People have different levels of greed and envy, are more or less jealous, and everyone owns their own particular level and grouping of insecurities.  More than this, we each have our own life of experiences and foundation of knowledge that informs how we interpret events and our own self-interest. Therefore, the less we share in common with someone, the more likely we are to misjudge what makes them tick.

When it comes to conservatives, we’ve seen them openly admit doing some pretty shitty things. For example, when the Great Recession hit, they were pretty clear that they wanted the economy to remain in a poor condition so they could ride the resulting discontent to political victory. When Donald Trump was president, we’ve saw conservatives refuse to get tested for COVID-19 because they didn’t want to add to the high rate of infection in the country and give the Democrats political ammunition. It’s hard to believe people would do these things precisely because we wouldn’t do them ourselves.

It’s hard to get inside the head of a conservative not just because they consume different information and have unfamiliar life experiences, but also because a lot of what drives our own behavior is absent with them. The same is true in reverse, of course, which is why they’re prone to attributing bad motives to Democrats when none exist.

For example, Greg Sargent points out that conservatives felt that during 2020 the Democrats pushed policies in response to the COVID-19 outbreak that were intended to hurt the economy and thereby harm Trump’s reelection prospects. That’s precisely the type of behavior they engaged in during the Great Recession–their House members famously refusing to offer a single vote for the Recovery Act.

But the Democrats were not driven by a desire to harm the economy. They were following the best available expert advice in an effort to save lives, including their own.

A lot of the initial resistance to anti-COVID protocols on the right stemmed from this mis-assignment of motives to the left. Over time, it morphed into something else, and now that Biden is president and the pandemic persists, the right actually seeks the kind of political advantage they wrongly complained about in 2020. Sargent points to a statement given by a Republican political operative to CNN.

“Democrats ran an entire campaign dishonestly promising that they alone could fix a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Now that they’ve completely failed and their poll numbers are tanking, they are desperate to shift blame,” Michael McAdams, National Republican Congressional Committee communications director, said in a statement.

As a 2022 midterm messaging strategy, this is dependent on the pandemic remaining a hot mess for the next 14 months. Sargent points out that the GOP has a plan for that.

House Republicans and GOP candidates have spread disinformation about the virus, have staged epic fake-outrage fests about mask mandates, have demagogued about vaccines in ridiculous, hallucinogenic and obscenely wretched ways, and have pushed the rankest of absurdities to undermine confidence in federal health officials.

They don’t want people to wear masks or get vaccinated because that would help Biden get the problem under control and ruin their argument. The Democrats are capable of some cynical political ploys but they would never try to gain power by helping a deadly virus proliferate. The record is clear, too, that the Democrats will act to shore up the economy in an emergency even if it will help their political opponents. Remember, when the big banks needed to be bailed out in lead-up to the 2008 election, it was the Democrats who stepped up and took the heat.

That might have been politically foolish, especially when not enough subsequent aid went to ordinary people, but it shows something about motives. The Democrats see a crumbling economy as something that hurts working people, not as something to exacerbate for political advantage. They passed the Affordable Care Act to help people despite knowing it would come at great political risk.

I don’t think we’ll ever succeed in getting conservatives to act in acceptable ways, but it might help if they at least understood us better. We’re not like them. Our empathy is real, and there are limits on what we’ll do to try to obtain power.

If You Know Your History, Then You Would Know Where You’re Coming From

Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin’s lament for the loss of trust in America post-9/11 whitewashes her ugly history.

If you’re like me, and I know I am, then you’ve spent the past four and a half years baffled that you’re nodding in agreement with the likes of Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin. Sometimes it seems that she is the only person in the media that actually gets it, when it comes to Joe Biden’s approach to politics. Considering her previous life as a Mitt Romney shill, it’s quite a turnaround—and one that I welcome.

But you don’t get to whitewash your own history—certainly not when the Internet is forever, and certainly not when you’re Jennifer Rubin, who laments the trust that was a casualty of September 11.

The media’s trust issues didn’t end with Afghanistan; the trivialization of news, the artificial drama created for clicks, and the false equivalence between one normal, democratic party and one authoritarian, reactionary party were each instrumental, too, in the breakdown of a shared reality and the decline of mature political discussion. In perpetuating a tabloid view of government wholly focused on supposed scandals (who can forget Hillary Clinton’s emails?) and too often devoid of policy substance, the media contributed to a political nihilism in which “nothing matters” and accountability is ridiculed.

This is the same Jennifer Rubin who wrote a lively little column entitled “Why it’s correct to label the Obama administration ‘anti-Israel’”, promoting this delightful quote from the American Enterprise Institute’s Danielle Pletka:

She continued, “And while the administration would surely argue that forcing Jews to wear yellow stars is not a sign of discrimination but merely a diktat about clothing, it should be clear to Jews everywhere that the 1930s are returning.”

In another column, Rubin , again surely in good faith and not at all eroding trust in government officials, quotes JINSA’s Michael Makovsky’s opinion that President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry were “bordered on the anti-Semitic” for forging a nuclear deal with Iran. It’s worth noting that JINSA

“supported President George W. Bush’s policies in two regards, advocating the need for regime change in Iraq, cultivating close ties with Ahmed Chalabi, and supporting American funding for opposition groups in Iran.”

So… maybe not the best judges of character there?

The hits keep comin’. Here’s Ms. Rubin accusing Obama of working to betray our allies and give aid, comfort and protection to a sworn enemy of the United States and Israel.” In a column titled “Obama won’t defend Western civilization”, Rubin claims that “Obama is capitulating in slow motion to the demands of Iran.” She closes THAT column by helpfully asking,

How do we defend Western civilization when the leader of the free world won’t, and doesn’t even like it all that much?”

Are you fucking KIDDING me, lady?

And I haven’t even gotten to the hysterics over the “Ground Zero mosque,” beginning with “Obama Sides with Ground Zero Mosque Builders vs. Americans”, a masterpiece of overwrought, hyperventilating, right-wing propaganda that served only to promote more American culture warfare and sow mistrust of government.

Obama has shown his true sentiments now, after weeks of concealing them, on an issue of deep significance not only to the families and loved ones of 3,000 slaughtered Americans but also to the vast majority of his fellow citizens. He has once again revealed himself to be divorced from the values and concerns of his countrymen. He is entirely — and to many Americans, horridly — a creature of the left, with little ability to make moral distinctions. His sympathies for the Muslim World take precedence over those, such as they are, for his fellow citizens. This is nothing short of an abomination.

Look, I’m happy that Jennifer Rubin has, for now, seen where she went wrong. Her support for President Joe Biden is admirable, and as I wrote above, I think she’s one of the rare pundits who seems to get the Biden presidency. Here’s a good one on how the media underestimates Biden. Another praising Biden’s response to critics of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Frankly, if you told me 10 years ago that I’d be praising a creature like Rubin, I would have laughed you out of town. Politics makes strange bedfellows.

But nowhere in her cri du coeur, her lament for the trust that was lost after 9/11, does Rubin acknowledge her own role in sowing those seeds. Not even a single sentence.

So far as I’m concerned, that’s dishonest and it’s not playing straight with your readers. I’m enjoying Rubin’s work lately, but I guess a hack is always gonna be a hack to one degree or another.

What is Tom Edsall Getting At?

Are white liberal elites wrong about everything or just responsible for the left losing elections?

I generally enjoy Thomas Edsall’s columns, but I think his latest is a bit of a mess. Even the headline writers don’t seem to have understood the point since they went with an informationally vacant “One Thing We Can Agree on Is That We’re Becoming a Different Country.”

Edsall marshals a variety of studies and opinions from public intellectuals to discuss the growing intolerance of the left, but his target is really more specific to “white liberal elites.” I have no problem trashing white liberal elites. I do it all the time. However, I’m usually pretty upfront and specific about what I find problematic. In general, my complaints are about poor reasoning and a lack of realism which often manifests as political foolishness wrapped up in sanctimony. But this is me talking to my own tribe because culturally, if not financially, I am a member of the white liberal elite. Most often, I agree with their goals but not their methods, although that doesn’t mean I don’t recognize some of the problems that Edsall identifies.

For example, as a white man I definitely notice that “white man” has become an epithet that is often used to dismiss someone’s opinion or qualifications. Scrolling through social media, I often cringe at how the term is used, less because it’s at least indirectly pointed at me than because it strikes me as appallingly bad politics. Maybe the most interesting part of Edsall’s piece is data from the 2020 American National Election Studies survey “showing that white liberals, in contrast to white moderates and conservatives, rate minorities higher on what political scientists call a thermometer scale than they do whites.” In other words, white liberals have better feelings about people of color than people of their own racial identity.

I think it’s less important how you characterize this phenomenon–Edsall’s sources call it “guilt”–than that you recognize that it’s pretty hard to win a majority of any group’s votes if you have a self-hating message. In the 1990’s, when Bill Cosby vented about black kids wearing baggy pants and Chris Rock insisted that some blacks really are “niggas”, who “glorify ignorance and sloth, and brag about fulfilling any minor responsibility,” no fair observer could argue that they weren’t making some valid self-criticisms of black culture. But they weren’t going to win over the black vote with that kind of message. However well-intentioned white liberal criticism of historic racism, sexism, homophobia, and colonialism might be, it’s experienced by many whites as a selective attack on their history, accomplishments and worth.

Edsall basically meanders to this point in his conclusion, where he warns “Donald Trump rode the coattails of these issues into office. Could he — or someone else who has been watching closely — do it again?”

But the conclusion is really the first place where he puts this in a political context. The piece is much more dedicated to the issue of free speech and how unpopular opinions are treated in colleges and universities. While he talks about white self-hatred he’s actually much more interested in how college administrators police the free exchange of ideas despite both students and professors being more tolerant of politically incorrect opinions.

The result is an opinion piece that lacks a narrative. We have no clarity on what Edsall considers the central problem. Is the problem political in the sense that white liberals are creating a backlash that will give us another Trump? Or is the problem more on the merits, that white liberals are simply wrong when they talk about “white supremacy culture” and patriarchy and imperialism?

To make things more confounding, Edsall spends a bit of time looking at the strategic thinking of the people pushing “wokeness.” He notes that there’s a purpose to pushing the boundaries of what’s unacceptable. Legislative change usually follows cultural change, and both are core objectives of progressive reformers. To advance these goals, Edsall argues, progressives are pushing too hard in various areas and bringing too much speech and behavior under the categories of sexual harassment and assault, racism, triggering, bullying and microagression, etc. Innocent people get caught up in the game and branded as irredeemables. Sophisticated progressive strategists understand that there’s collateral damage, but as Edsall’s source Cass Sunstein explains:

Their goal is to create some kind of cascade, informational or reputational, by which the concept moves in their preferred direction. In the context of abuse, bullying, prejudice, and sexual harassment, both informational and reputational cascades have indeed occurred.

In this sense, wokeness is working. If your goal, for example, is to make the workplace safer and fairer for women, redefining acceptable behavior from men is a prerequisite, and this has to happen culturally before it can manifest itself in laws and corporate policies. It’s legitimate to have a debate about how far is too far, but it seems that a discussion of the merits can take place without an exclusive focus on the extremes.

If we’re talking about merits, we have to consider how far we’ve come since the 1960’s when the debate was over the legitimacy of white supremacy to today where few will defend white supremacy and even many virulent racists live in terror of being called racist. That’s how “wokeness” wins–by creating a cascade that defines previously permissible behavior and opinions as socially unacceptable. Something similar has happened with gay rights, and certainly with women’s role in the family and workplace.

There’s always a conservative backlash against progressive change, but conservatives tend to lose these arguments in the long run. In the short run, they sporadically ride the tide to electoral victories and it’s really about whether progressives can potentially lose more than they gain. A good example is the present conservative makeup of the Supreme Court, which is a direct product of the Republicans winning backlash presidential and midterm elections.

There are simply two many topics here and they aren’t tied together by anything other than a general distaste for white liberals. In the end, Edsall’s critique isn’t much better than Cosby’s baggy pants tirade. He’s not going to convince white liberal elites by being a self-hating white liberal elite.

Simple Answers to Simple Questions, Megan McArdle Edition

Image via Twitter screenshot

Hello again, and welcome to Simple Answers to Simple Questions! Today’s guest is Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle, who asks “If the GOP succeeds in destroying Roe v. Wade, how will it handle the fallout?”

Today’s simple answer: They won’t have to do anything, because people like Megan McArdle will bothsides and what-about the issue into incoherence.

This has been another episode of “Simple Answers to Simple Questions!” See you next time!

Midweek Cafe and Lounge, Vol. 229

Aight. Got a new cafe and lounge set up. We’re at the midweek point once more. I hope you are all are doing okay. I thought I’d play a couple more vids from my grad school days.

This first one is from a DJ Spooky EP released in 1999:

This next one is from the Reich Remixed LP:

Tranquility Bass (Michael Kandel) died too young, but he did leave us behind with this masterpiece.

Sometimes we need to take a break and enjoy the little things. See you all around.

Cheers!