Mainstream Democratic lawmakers are seething about the fact that centrists in their party have the final say on what will be included in the Build Back Better budget reconciliation bill. It’s just math, though. If you need Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin’s votes, you have to produce something they find acceptable.
I’ve argued that it’s not a great idea to constantly insult them since they’re in total control, but a lot of Democrats can’t help themselves. It’s easy to see why when we begin to consider what it will take to reduce the BBB’s price tag from $3.5 trillion down to $1.5 trillion. Jeff Stein of the Washington Post, explains that just “funding climate change, creating a national paid leave program, and extending a tax benefit that alleviates child poverty” would leave no money left over for anything else the Democrats promised during the 2020 campaign.
Democrats’ health care goals alone could cost in the range of $750 billion if extended over the next decade. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wants to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on new Obamacare subsidies, while Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wants to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to add dental, vision and hearing benefits to Medicare. Other Democrats, such as Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.), are pushing to expand Medicaid eligibility to poor Americans in Republican-run states that so far have refused to take advantage of extra Medicaid dollars made available under Obamacare.
There are ways to play around with the numbers to fit more priorities into the bill, but this mainly involves allowing programs to sunset after a certain number of years, limiting who can access or benefit from programs, or funding them at such inadequate levels that they may not be effective.
There’s an argument for doing just a few things very well, especially if millions of people will notice. There’s also an argument for keeping as many promises as possible and seeing what sticks. Either way, it’s painful and politically perilous.
I learned a long time ago that part of being in a broad political coalition is accepting that you can’t go around telling people that their top priorities are less unimportant or will have to wait. That’s why I’m not going to argue that this or that priority should be cut from the bill. But I do think that advocates for certain policies, whether it be access to health care, childhood hunger, or something else, should focus on the virtues of their programs rather than on who donates money to Sinema and Manchin. They get to decide if a little more money can be included for your priority or not, and it’s human nature not to reward critics who insult your integrity.
However arbitrary it may be, Sen. Manchin insists he isn’t spending a penny over $1.5 trillion. Biden and Pelosi are hoping he’ll come up a little from that number to something more like $2.1 or $2.3 trillion. If he agrees, it could cover most of their health care goals. Maybe the best strategy is to tell Manchin that West Virginians’ teeth are on the line. I mean, he can explain that kind of expenditure very easily.
This is an unpleasant situation. It’s a bit like a bunch of grandchildren jockeying to get more of their mean old grandmother’s inheritance. They may cringe at the things she says, but they humor her anyway because she has something they want. Everyone feels dirty in these scenarios, but someone winds up winning. Whether it was worth it depends on the details.
Of course, grandma can decide she doesn’t like any of the grandchildren and leave her inheritance to the Republican Party. In that case, everyone can agree that she was a nasty old crow, but that won’t feed a child or get someone a dental appointment.
Obama had to deal with the exact same kinds of things in the Dem controlled Senate, different conservative Dems, but more of them then and just as difficult. I remember Senator Nelson (Nebraska) going on Maddow and she tried to get him to say why he insisted the Stimulus bill be no more than $800 billion. He could never actually offer a reason other than “that is what I want.”
Ben Nelson was a pain in the ass.
Sinema is a pain in the ass and she probably doesn’t even need to be. I guess we’ll know after Kelly’s election. In my view, Josh Marshall had it right in a post about this not being progressives v moderates, but those who are motivated by policy and those like Sinema who do everything for the sake of positioning. What is so frustrating is that they don’t seem to stand for anything and they are constantly attacking the Democratic brand.
Sinema stands for making money.
Best case scenario is Manchin and Sinema are willing to cut deals—e.g., Manchin comes up on the spending total in exchange for Medicare dental and expanded Obamacare subsidies for the middle-class. Worst case scenario is one (Sinema) or both of them aren’t willing to negotiate but just want to be able to deliver a John McCain “thumbs down” moment for their own gratification. Frankly, I’m surprised Dems haven’t gotten this close.
Yes, hopefully they’re not going to say no to everything.
They are going to have to be willing to cut deals, because they, and a lot of their “moderate” colleagues, and perhaps even a few of the Republicans who made this bill bipartisan, actually WANT and NEED the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the more Manchinema delay, the more pressure they will feel from their own allies to “get off the pot”, while the great majority off the Democratic delegation in both houses remain united, including Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden himself. Sinemanchin are no longer “in total control,” even if right up until yesterday they could have sworn they were. Today they woke up saying “WTF just happened?” That’s why Sinema is fit to be tied at this latest twist — which occurred while she was back in AZ getting her corns removed or something — and why Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C., who calls Biden’s infrastructure plan a “Trojan horse to get us more socialism,” told “Fox Report” he found a few “ashen” Democrats in the House elevators following Pelosi’s withdrawal of the vote. Yes, those “ashen” Democrats were his small group of “centrist” friends, who just just realized they had been played. No other Democrats were “ashen”, I assure you. The first response of Martin and a lot of the media (like the NY Times) has been to run various versions of the “Democrats in disarray” narrative, when the only Democrats who are in disarray are the ones who were trying to pull a fast one by breaking their agreement on this two-track legislation. Because, in the words of Rep. Jayapal, that’s “not going to happen.” — Martin is right to the extent that there will have to be some wheeling and dealings and priorities will have to be hashed out, but it will not be quite so Draconian as he imagines. They will not get $3.5 trillion, but they will not go down to $1.5 either. That ship has sailed.
Did Pramila Jayapal just hurt Manchin’s feelings when she said his $1.5 million proposal is “not going to happen”? Or was she rather telling him and all of us that he and Sinema are going to have to finally start negotiating instead of swaggering around making loud noises about how they can’t go above some abstract number because they’re not liberals? If Biden and Pelosi are supposed to be upset about this latest “revolt” of the House Progressive Caucus backed by the vast majority of House Democrats, they sure aren’t showing it.
First of all, I think pointed vitriol can be extremely effective if it comes from Manchin and Sinema’s own constituents. I encouraged my father, who lives in Arizona, to call her office and give her hell. I think the people who have been approaching Manchin’s houseboat have been effective. He asked if some of them were from West Virginia. Many claimed to be.
I guess it comes down to whether and how badly those two want the bipartisan bill to pass, and also whether they value their standing in the Democratic party. Manchin is in a very Republican state so maybe he feels the need to shit on us but Sinema’s behaving in ways that make no electoral sense given that the last thing she needs is a primary challenge and she needs people to knock on doors and make calls for her in the run-up to election day. Big pocketed donors aren’t enough by themselves to save her sorry spotted behind. If I lived in either of those states, I’d be making calls, writing e-mails and letters to the editor, and getting others to do the same. My wording would not be polite. It would be appropriately outraged. I wouldn’t call them “ass wipes”, though I believe the term fitting. But I’d express rage at their disregard for the well being of their own constituents. In Sinema’s case I’d point out that the people who voted for her were counting on her to support Democratic priorities.
I’m cautiously optimistic there will be a deal for a sum in the 2.2 to 2.5 trillion dollar range. It won’t have everything but it can have a lot.