Harry Eaten of CNN argues that the Republicans are about to absolutely thrash the Democrats in the midterm elections, and it will be far worse than the polls suggest.
Most polls you’re looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans’ position heading into the midterm election cycle. It’s not that the polls are “wrong.” Rather, it’s that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they’re going to vote for in November, when it’s likely only a distinct subset of voters who will cast a ballot.
The voters who will actually turn out for the fall election are likely going to be disproportionately Republican based on current polling data and history.
On the other hand, David Siders of Politico points to the infighting and dysfunction in the Wisconsin Republican Party, and wonders if the GOP’s enormous advantage will actually materialize. It could be that too many conservative voters stay home either because they don’t believe the elections will be fair or because they’re angry with their candidates for not doing enough to make the elections fair.
It’s an unusual level of dysfunction for a state party that not so long ago was regarded as a model for conservatism nationally. And it may have disastrous implications for the party in the fall of what otherwise looks like a favorable year for Republicans across the electoral map, undercutting fundraising and turnout efforts in the GOP’s bid to reelect Sen. Ron Johnson and to unseat the state’s Democratic governor, Tony Evers…
…The upheaval in Wisconsin is, in part, a reflection of primary politics that are unusually contentious nearly everywhere this year. And it’s an expression of near-universal anger among rank-and-file Republicans about Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020.
This puts the Democrats in an unusual and mostly unenviable position. The saner the establishment Republicans act, the more the Republican base will be disinclined to vote. That’s seems like a win-win, except that sane Republicans are going to lose in primary elections. If we think today’s GOP is frightening, just wait until we see their eventual slates of contenders for office. The Republicans should win if big if they’re united, and they’ll only be united if the establishment is cast out by the base before the general election. In other words, losing is going be worse in the end than it appears now.
It’s really this desire for survival and unity that’s pushing so many establishment Republicans to cave to the insanity, and that capitulation will bring the worst of all worlds.
Meanwhile, it appears that our Presidents Day gift will be the launch of Trump’s social media app, Truth Social, which will become available in the Apple App Store on Monday. So, our long national nightmare of being constantly subjected to Trump’s toxic commentary is set to resume. Today is our last day of peace.
There are countless wildcards, including the resumption of the Cold War or even the outbreak of World War Three, which could greatly influence the midterm elections, but it’s more certain that Trump’s legal woes will play a huge role. He must be exposed and marginalized as aggressively as possible, and every effort to hold him accountable must be made before voters go to the polls.
If he emerges as the triumphant and unquestioned leader of an ascendant Republican Party, we’re done as a country.
I think Garland is the wrong person, at the wrong time, in the wrong position. And the Democratic establishment is too weak to aggressively pursue all the Republican mala fide actors! As a result we Democratic voters will continue twisting in the wind!
Looks like the base is starting to break with Trump–only to go for more Trumpy people…
The NY State probe could give a look at the man behind the curtain–or more importantly, cutoff the money. And there needs to be a real probe of campaign finances–sanctions against Russia might help there.
The old adage “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst” comes to mind. But the scary thing is that I have no clue how bad “the worst” is going to be. I expect it to be much worse than even my natural cynicism would lead me to believe. I truly feel that at this point the possibililty that The Great American Experiment survives after this upcoming Presidential election cycle is, at the most optimistic, a toss-up. There is a damn good chance that after 230-plus years, all of this will end.
This (or something like it) has happened before. It’s the history of Reconstruction and Redemption in the South. By every available measure Black people in the south (i.e., 90% of Black people in the US at the time) had fewer legal rights, less political power, and worse economic opportunities in 1910 than in 1870.
So, even in a worst case scenario, something similar has happened before, life goes on, and we don’t give up the struggle.
Also, we’re in a much better position—demographically, politically, economically, socially—than the formerly enslaved were a century ago.
Its not over yet you are right, but I take Mike’s point. Given the new voting laws in so many states, this seems to be a set up for Trump or anyone with an R next to his name to win. And Manchin and Sinema just whispered “ho hum”.
Some of this shit blows my mind. The NYTimes reported Sunday on page one that a few yahoos in Wisconsin are attempting to overturn the last election in favor of guess who and the wild eyed idiots who follow them are convinced it is all perfectly legal.
On the other hand, it is always darkest before dawn and the fight is not lost. We know Republicans are going to lie, cheat if they can and nominate at least some candidates who would feel quite at home in the Nazi party. And this is an election we have to win. This is not the time to wring our hands. Now is the time to suck it up and get to work. If democracy is going to do down, the least we should be able to say is that we fought the good fight.
We are running on the side of truth, science, and reality. We are in favor of (unspecified) policies to fight climate change and promote equality and fairness. Republicans are running on lies, obstruction, inequality and unfairness. We are the party for those who believe in democracy. Republicans are the party of Trump.
We turn out our voters and we win. We don’t and we lose.
“The voters who will actually turn out for the fall election are likely going to be disproportionately Republican based on current polling data and history.”
Why that must be taken as cast in stone I am not sure. But this is what the democrats need to solve for. Get our voters to the polls and they have a good chance of keeping the House and even expanding their margin in the Senate.