Matt Bai makes predictions.

The universe of outcomes in Ukraine is limited now. The most likely scenario involves Putin unleashing savagery on the country to possess it, and it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border. You’d have to think a negotiated alternative that leaves Ukraine partly intact, if that window opens, would be preferable.

I know this is one possible outcome. I think it’s safe to say that this war won’t end before Ukraine suffers catastrophic damage to its infrastructure. It has already suffered untold billions in damages and every day brings more. It’s also true that President Zelensky’s life is endangered and he could be located and killed at any moment. Loss of life, both civilian and official military, is also certain to build continuously for as long as the conflict lasts.

But I don’t know that the end game is likely to be Russia in some kind of “possession” of Ukraine with their military repositioned to the Ukrainian border with Poland. That prediction assumes that no one will remove Putin from power, and Russia and Russia’s people are going to suffer greatly and increasingly every day that this conflict goes on. The pressure to stop destroying Ukraine and wantonly killing people will build, and it will come not just domestically but from impatient Russian allies like China.

Putin may not have a way out. It probably isn’t possible for him to deescalate and remain in charge. But that doesn’t mean anyone else in Russia is similarly incentivized to keep going and going regardless of the costs.

I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Russia is prepared to or capable of occupying and pacifying Ukraine. They’d need a million troops on permanent duty to do that, and they’ll quickly be too broke to sustain that kind of effort.

The West is in a tough position because they’re not capable of making internal leadership decisions for the Russians, so they have to negotiate with Putin as if he’ll be in charge forever. But the real game is to negotiate behind the scenes with the people with the wherewithal to replace him. That’s how this can end on acceptable terms. All the sanctions can be lifted. Russia can catch a break on paying for entire cost of the destruction they’ve created. Maybe there’s a future for Russia in the European Union or even in NATO, assuming Putin’s replacements are interested in pursuing the same kind of dreams the Ukrainians are currently being punished for pursuing. But first Putin must go and this whole enterprise in Ukraine must be abandoned, including the annexation of Crimea and Dombas.

If Ukraine decides it wants to capitulate rather than take any more beatings, no one can do much about that. But as long as they’re willing to resist, I see no logical or inevitable victory for Russia, and no clean way out. They should suffer defeat here, if people are resolved and patient.