I suppose it’s not too early to start gaming out the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries, although it’s still far too soon to make confident predictions. David Siders of Politico believes the recent U.S. Senate primary in Ohio, won by Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance, offers some meaningful clues. In particular, Siders is convinced that the third place finish of state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians, indicates that there is a very limited appetite in the GOP base for establishment candidates.
State Sen. Matt Dolan, a conservative who accused Trump of “perpetuat[ing] lies about the outcome” of the 2020 election yet declined to be characterized as a Never Trumper, managed to exceed expectations and rise in the polls. But it wasn’t enough — not for first or even second place.
Still, in finishing third with 23 percent, Dolan managed to provide some clues to the size and composition of a key voting bloc in the next presidential primary — signs that suggest the Herculean task ahead for GOP institutionalists.
The idea here is that Dolan came the closest of all the contenders to defining himself in opposition to Trump. He carried Cleveland and Columbus and came in second in Cincinnati, but was slaughtered everywhere else. Outside of the cities and suburbs, the party is still in the thrall of the disgraced ex-president.
But there’s a secondary narrative. J.D. Vance was seemingly launched into the lead by Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement and ultimately carried a victorious plurality, but 68 percent of the voters chose someone else. Collectively, Trumpish candidates carried more than three-quarters of the votes, but that didn’t mean voters were necessarily taking Trump’s advice on who to support.
Siders notes these distinctions and argues that they show how hard it will be for a Mitt Romney-type politician to win the Republican nomination. Even if GOP voters ultimately decide Trump is unelectable, or he doesn’t run, they’re likely to opt for someone like him. The anti-Trumpism bloc seems locked in at around a quarter of the primary-voting electorate, which means a successful mainstream candidate could one win with a very small plurality vote. That won’t work if there is more than one anti-Trump candidate to choose from, and even then it would only work in early contests with many seemingly viable candidates to choose from.
This indicates that Trumpism is stronger and more enduring than Trump himself. This suggests that “reasonable” presidential candidates like Govs. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas or Larry Hogan of Maryland will likely would likely fare no better in 2024 than Jeb Bush and John Kasich fared in 2016, especially if they try telling the truth once in a while.
The Republican Party is wrecked, and it’s wrecking the country. There’s almost no hope that that will change in the near future.
