As Ukraine makes advances in the east and south, and Russian forces retreat and collapse, I take special notice of the following comment:

On Monday, the spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged that “superior tank units” of Ukraine had “wedged in the depth of our defense line” near the villages of Zolota Balka and Oleksandrivka in the Kherson region.

Why would a Russian military spokesperson admit that Ukraine has superior tank units? I ask this quite aside from the possibility that it’s true. I don’t think Putin’s Russia cares one bit about the truth of anything. Ordinarily they like to project strength, not weakness, so it’s noteworthy that here they’d prefer to look outgunned.

Now it could be that the breakthrough near Kherson truly involved a tank battle that the Russians lost, but I suggest the truth is probably that the Russian forces ran away. I don’t think the soldiers in the field see the point in dying for Kherson. But the Kremlin doesn’t want to admit that it has a massive morale problem, so it’s preferable to blame losses on the equipment NATO is providing. This can justify more defense spending, help answer critics of their strategy, and perhaps avoid a more general refusal to fight.

To the extent that the West swallows this “superior tank unit” explanation, it only encourages them to give more. So, that’s another reason I think it’s least bad excuse they could come up with. I see it as a giant warning sign that Russia is nearing some kind of reckoning. When your best lies are actually more helpful to your adversaries than yourself, you’re almost out of lying ammunition.