Nate Cohn and Nate Silver have been arguing with each other on Twitter lately, but one thing they agree about is that the midterm election outcomes are too uncertain to risk their reputations making a firm prediction. It’s the day before the election, though, and people want some kind of commitment.

Instead, Silver gives us the predictable “two scenarios” treatment. On the one hand, could be the polls suck but so do the fundamentals for the Democrats. Either way, big Republican win! Or, on the other hand, maybe “pollsters face more reputational risk from again missing high on Democrats than the other way around” and are skewing things in the GOP’s favor–the Democrats do better than expected!

Meanwhile, Cohn is even less committal.

Everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a fairly close race for the House to something like a Republican rout is well within the range of realistic possibilities on Tuesday.

In Cohn’s case, I believe he’s far more skeptical than Silver about the overall quality of the polls this cycle, which provides justification for throwing up his hands rather than going out on a limb.

However you look at it, the overall pundits’ narrative is definitely giving Republicans reason to rubs their hands in glee and expectation. And there’s a line of thought that there’s value to looking like a winner on the eve of Election Day because people don’t like to vote for losers. This is one reason why Democrats are fighting back against the narrative, arguing that the polling averages are inundated with low-quality Republican-aligned surveys, or that the early vote is great or youth turnout is up, etc.

But there’s a flip side to high expectations. Democrats know that they’re predicted to lose, but they also see that a lot of races are very tight. They aren’t complacent, although there surely are some who are resigned. They feel like they’re fighting for their lives and the future of democracy, and it might be better overall that they’re not convinced everything will be okay. It could help their turnout.

All this stuff is probably close to a wash, to be truthful.

To me, the problem is that the Republicans are competitive after four years of Trump, a failed coup attempt, and the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The electorate is fucked in the head, which means the country is probably fucked, too. Today, I have some (probably delusional) hope that the Democrats will hold the House and expand their majority in the Senate. But if Dems lose one or both chambers of Congress, I don’t think I’ll experience hope again in this lifetime.

I really do feel, if that’s the outcome, that everything I’ve done for the last 16 years was nothing more than sticking me finger in the dyke. The town couldn’t be saved.