Ever since it become clear that the Democrats maintained their control of the U.S. Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, it has been nagging me that I read somewhere that Mitch McConnell said he would retire under this scenario. In other words, if he wasn’t going to be majority leader he would just call it quits. The problem was, I couldn’t remember where I’d seen this reported. I shouldn’t have worried. Even though the rumor was widespread on social media over the summer, it was fake news. There is no record that McConnell ever said any such thing.
He did make preparations for an unannounced retirement, however, by orchestrating a change in Kentucky law. The Louisville Courier Journal reported on it in March 2021:
Kentucky lawmakers override veto of McConnell-backed Senate vacancy plan
The Republican-run Kentucky legislature on Monday easily overrode Gov. Andy Beshear’s veto of a notable bill that restricts his ability to fill any vacancies that arise if one of the state’s U.S. senators dies or leaves office early.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the commonwealth’s powerful senior senator, threw his support behind Senate Bill 228. That sparked speculation that the 79-year-old statesman, who just got reelected last fall, might be eyeing the exits.
The new law strips the Kentucky governor of the right to make an interim replacement to the U.S. Senate. Instead, the governor must select from a list of three options provided by the executive committee of the party of the departing senator.
So, if McConnell (or Republican Sen. Rand Paul) were to retire mid-term, Democratic Gov. Beshear could not put a Democrat in his place. The law mirrors one in Wyoming which prevented then-Gov.Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, from picking someone from his own party to replace Sen. Craig Thomas when he died in 2007. He chose John Barrasso as the least objectionable of three options offered to him by the Republicans.
These restrictions may violate the 17th Amendment, which says:
When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.
The question hinges on whether the legislatures may put conditions on the governor or if they’re restricted to either giving him or her the authority to fill vacancies, or not. I don’t expect that the conservative Supreme Court would side with the Democrats on any challenge to the law, but Beshear could test it if the issue ever arises.
On Wednesday, McConnell beat back a challenge for the top leadership spot among Senate Republicans from Rick Scott of Florida. The New York Times reports that the vote was 37-10. I imagine that any temptation McConnell might have had to retire was tempered by a desire not to give any satisfaction to either Scott or Donald Trump, both of whom he’s been openly feuding with throughout the year.
Still, he must be mightily frustrated. He thought he’d be majority leader again after the 2020 elections only to see the Democrats win both Georgia runoff elections and secure a 50-50 advantage. Then he watched Rick Scott, who headed the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), horribly botch an effort to win control in 2022 by failing (so far*) to defeat even one incumbent Democrat. How galling must it be to be challenged by Scott under these circumstances?
It is somewhat strange that McConnell retains such rock-solid support with his caucus despite these recent failures and despite being in a blood feud with Trump who continually insults his wife in openly racist terms.
What’s really sick is that I probably feel better about McConnell staying than going. He at least understands the importance of paying the government’s bills on time, and he understands the importance of helping Ukraine. I can’t say that necessarily for Rick Scott or many of the other Republican senators.
In any case, the Dems can’t pick up his seat, even briefly, so it doesn’t make much difference. It looks like he’ll stay where his is and use his considerable parliamentary talents to be a royal pain in the ass. If he prevents a default on our debts, I’ll count it as a win.
