I’ve never subscribed to the idea that there are circumstances where it’s better to lose in politics than to win. But, of course, if you have the benefit of hindsight, you can identify circumstances where being in power became a liability. For the Republicans, their chances of winning the presidency in 1948 and 1996 were probably hindered by them first winning the midterm elections in 1946 and 1994. The reason, in both cases, was that Republican-controlled congresses went too far in challenging incumbent Democratic presidents and made a poor impression on the electorate.

In those examples, the Republicans had won complete control of Congress after a long time in the minority. In the 2022 midterms, the GOP won control only of the House of Representatives, and after a relatively brief period in the minority. So, not everything is equal, but it seems likely that President Joe Biden can benefit from having a foil in the House Republicans.

As The Hill notes, the GOP is in deep disarray.

The Republican Party, which entered 2022 with ambitions of recapturing both chambers of Congress and using discontent with President Biden to mount a strong case for retaking the White House in 2024, is entering 2023 in a state of uncertainty across the board.

Former President Trump, who for the last six years has had a vise grip on the GOP, is politically weakened and legally vulnerable. Trump is the only declared candidate in the 2024 field, but the landscape for the presidential nomination remains unsettled with several others eyeing a bid.

Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is facing blowback from a handful of state party leaders and some conservatives as she seeks to win another term during the party’s meetings next month.

In the Senate, Republicans are coming off a disappointing midterm showing that saw them fail to recapture the majority. And in the House, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is still short of the votes needed to secure the Speaker’s gavel next month as a handful of conservative firebrands withhold their support.

The common wisdom, as expressed by Politico Playbook’s Eugene Daniels, is that if McCarthy somehow manages to win the Speaker’s gavel, he will not hold it for long. He’s expected to crack up on the shoals of the debt ceiling.

There’s a consensus among many House Republicans, one that few would dare utter publicly, that if McCarthy starts the 118th Congress as speaker, he’s not likely to end it that way.

If he’s able to lock down the 218 votes he needs to be speaker, the thinking goes, he likely will have given away the store to conservatives — including the “Never Kevin” crowd’s demand to make it easier to call a vote to oust the speaker. Many Republicans are already predicting the Freedom Caucus will use that tool, known as the “motion to vacate,” against McCarthy as soon as he strays from a conservative hard line.

The question on everyone’s mind is: When? The year-end spending deal struck between Democrats and Senate Republicans clearly bought McCarthy time. Instead of having to negotiate a politically precarious funding agreement with Democrats in his first months as speaker, McCarthy won’t have to go there until September at the earliest.

But even McCarthy allies tell us the real looming threat is the debt ceiling deadline. At some point next year — likely in the third quarter, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center — McCarthy will have to figure out a way to raise the federal debt limit or risk a national default, a move that will tear the GOP conference in two.

This isn’t a problem unique to McCarthy. It’s a numbers game that will bedevil any Republican who tries to lead a strictly GOP majority caucus. They don’t have anywhere near the votes to extend the debt ceiling without Democratic help, and the second a GOP Speaker seeks help outside the caucus, he’ll need Democratic votes to survive a motion to vacate the chair.

No one has a solution to this problem that doesn’t involved some kind of hybrid bipartisan ruling majority. That’s a setup for a party in complete disarray. And Biden is likely to be the beneficiary.