I try not to get too excited or hopeful for the coming Ukrainian offensive. The whole situation is too fraught with danger for even overwhelming victory on the battlefield to bring any sense of peace or comfort. There are some signs, however, that Russia’s position is becoming untenable. First among them is obviously their failure to capture Bakhmut before today’s Victory Day celebration commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

A couple of weeks ago, it seemed like the West was resigning itself to the imminent loss of Bakhmut and trying to reassure everyone that it was really of little strategic importance. Yet, today, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, continued his threat to pull out of the region for lack of ammunition. He also accused a regular Russian unit of fleeing from one of his flanks on the battlefield.

“Today, everything is being done so that the front line crumbles. Today, one of the defence ministry’s units fled one of our flanks, abandoning their positions. Everyone fled,” said Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had earlier threatened to pull his fighters out of Bakhmut on May 10 if he does not receive badly needed ammunition.

In a video released on Tuesday, Prigozhin said troops were fleeing because of the “stupidity” of Russian army commanders.

“A soldier shouldn’t die because of his leaders’ absolute stupidity,” he added. “The commands they receive from the top are absolutely criminal.”

Finally, he said the defense ministry has warned him that he and his troops with be treated as traitors if they abandon their positions.

In his messages shared on Russia’s Victory Day – the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II – Prigozhin said that he had received a “combat order” on Monday, saying if Wagner troops abandoned positions, it would be regarded as “treason against the motherland”.

“That was the message to us,” Prigozhin said.

“[But] if there is no ammunition, then we will leave our positions and be the ones asking who is really betraying the motherland. Apparently, the one [betraying the motherland] is the person who signed [the order to supply too little ammunition],” he added, saying he would keep pleading for more ammunition for a “few more days”.

The Ukrainian forces defending Bahkmut have been hanging on by a thread for months, vulnerable to losing their supply routes and being surrounded. But rather than pull back to more defensible lines, they seem now to be watching their attackers disintegrate. What happens when Ukraine switches over to offense?

Then there’s the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia has been in control of the plant for a year but there is massive international concern that an accident will occur if it is not properly run and maintained. It is widely anticipated that a top objective of the coming Ukrainians offensive will be to retake control of Zaporizhzhia, and it looks like the Russians are preemptively preparing for that eventuality.

The plant pullout is being planned as occupying Russian authorities evacuate civilians from communities around the facility, the largest of its kind in Europe, in advance of a potential Ukrainian offensive in the south, Energoatom President Petro Kotin told The Washington Post.

The Russian-appointed governor of occupied Zaporizhzhia said Sunday that about 1,600 civilians had been moved out Enerhodar, home to the plant and many of its employees, and other communities. He cited “intensified shelling” by Ukrainian forces.

“What is most actually concerning for us is that we also have information that there are 3,100 people, workers from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, who are to be evacuated from the area,” Kotin said.

“They are preparing for this advance of Ukrainian forces. And if this happens, then they want to be prepared … to leave the area,” he said. But if the staff is evacuated, he said, “there will be lack of personnel just to operate the plant.”

While there’s some disagreement about how bad a meltdown at the plant might be, with some saying it wouldn’t threaten Europe and others warning it would be tens times worse than Chernobyl, all seem to agree it would be bad news for anyone living near the facility. That explains why the Russians are moving people out of the area. But if they had confidence they could hold the plant, these precautions would not be necessary. It seems they expect their frontlines to crumble on the Southern battlefield.

The Modern War Institute is concerned that the West isn’t prepared for this.

Around the world—in European capitals, in Washington DC, and even in Moscow—the outcome of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive seems to have already been largely determined.

As recently as March, the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, described a “grinding, attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage.” Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, was recently quoted cautioning realism, saying, “There is not going to be a single magic-wand moment when Russia collapses.” The Russians believe much of the same, calculating that they can hold off Ukraine defensively and play the waiting game until launching another offensive when Western support has waned.

But what if all of this turns out wrong? What if Ukraine ends up routing Russian occupation positions relatively swiftly and effectively, with the Russian military in a hopeless retreat?

Their worrisome conclusion is that Putin is likely to use a nuclear weapon if his lines collapse and he discovers he can’t save the situation by throwing more bodies at the problem. They particularly warn against recapturing Crimea without negotiations, as it would risk triggering the nuclear trip line.

However you see the risks, the picture for Russia’s military position is not rosy.