There are two basic takes at this very early point in the 2024 presidential cycle, but only one of them seems to inform the analytical pieces I see. Everyone seems to be operating on the assumption that Donald Trump is simply unbeatable in the primaries. A good example comes from Charlie Sykes, who has produced the following categories for Trump’s competitors.
- Real, even if delusional: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin
- Running for vice president: Tim Scott, Francis Suarez
- Better speaking fees: Nikki Haley
- Random grift: Vivek Ramaswamy
- Knights Errant: Asa Hutchinson, Liz Cheney
- Suicide bombers: Chris Christie
I don’t really know why Miami, Florida mayor Francis Suarez is on this list. I think North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is more likely to actually launch a campaign. The most notable thing about Sykes’ thinking here is that he doesn’t give any of these candidates any chance whatsoever of becoming the nominee, let alone the president. The most serious contenders are still considered “delusional.”
But what if Trump simply isn’t viable? What if he’s in prison? What if his cumulative legal problems have the effect of convincing Republican voters that he isn’t an option?
If you allow for this possibility, then the list above almost certainly includes the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential candidate. Once we start thinking along these lines, it seems the most delusional are clearly Mike Pence and Liz Cheney who are simply toxic with Republican voters. Chris Christie and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson are too anti-Trump to have any hope of winning over any meaningful percentage of his voters.
On paper, Florida governor Ron DeSantis and Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin have the best arguments, since they both performed very well in their election cycles, they both have executive experience and then can realistically hope to raise gobs of money. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, both of South Carolina, have decent resumes, but must overcome being ethnic and/or religious minorities in a party dominated by White Christian nationalists. Much the same can be said of venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy. I wouldn’t count them out for that reason alone, however, because Republicans like to believe they can neuter the racism charge by supporting minority candidates who assure them they’re not racist. With three candidates to choose from, though, it seems like this opportunity will be pretty watered down.
Talking about the difficulties with the sun for left fielders playing day games in Yankee Stadium, Yogi Berra said “it gets late early out there,” and time is running out for new candidates to get into the race. Maybe Burgum will become a serious player, but I don’t see other alternatives on the horizon. All I know is that the Republican voters inexplicably want Trump, and if he isn’t on the menu or doesn’t seem realistic, then they’re not going to be enthusiastic about these options. But they will still have to choose.
They didn’t have much enthusiasm for Bob Dole, John McCain or Mitt Romney, and we saw how that worked out. This will be a different kind of cycle, however. Even if Trump isn’t seen as a viable contender, the other candidates’ attitudes towards Trump, his presidency and his legal woes will all inform how the primaries shake out, and there will be a rich debate on those issues thanks to presence of multiple anti-Trump candidates on any debate stage.
I definitely agree with a lot of analysts who doubt DeSantis has the personal touch to be a strong candidate, but I don’t really see anyone other than perhaps Youngkin who could knock him off his perch as the top alternative to Trump. But it’s really early and the world and economy are in a volatile state. Someone with a compelling case to make that they have foreign policy experience, like Nikki Haley, or economic expertise, like Ramaswamy, could emerge if their skills seem most needed in the moment.
The last possibility is the most frightening for the Republican Party, and that is that Trump is dead in the water and perhaps even sitting in a prison cell, and yet he still wins because there are too many candidates splitting too much of the vote.
I think the best analysis right now is almost to offer no analysis at all. In Magic 8-Ball terms, I’d go with either “Reply hazy, try again,” “Ask again later” or “Cannot predict now.”
The only thing keeping Trump from winning the nomination is an accelerated actuarial table. He will not be in prison before the summer or fall of 2024. Trials don’t move that fast. Hell, we are still having trials about the January 6th people and they didn’t have the legal team Trump will have to delay, delay, delay.
So unless he drops dead, he’s going to win the nomination, because his legal woes simply prove that the woke, globalist deep state (am I doing it right) is out to stop him.
My sense is that Cheney has no delusions about winning and is simply there to be a thorn in Trump’s side on the debate stage; if he leaves the picture, she’ll have no reason to hang around either.
Looks like Youngkin has opted out but Sununu might be a possibility. If he joins, I’d say he leaps to the top of the Knights Errant category, and he might even post comparatively decent numbers (i.e., low double-digits) fueled by the never-Trumper vote.
It’s hard to say what comes after that. Imo Desantis will never win, not only because of his off-putting personality, but because Trump has explicitly made him toxic among his base. He could still change his mind, but Desantis would have to explicitly bow the knee and grovel in public, and privately offer assurances of pardons and perhaps other favors. I’m not saying he’s above it, but he might also have a stubborn streak. Hard to tell. I think he’d do whatever he had to to win over the Trump base, but as long as Trump is publicly opposed to him it’s not going to happen.
Who does that leave? Out of the rest of the list, I think maybe Tim Scott may have the best chance. He has no baggage with Tump and will embrace him to the degree possible. He also figures as the best candidate to own the libs because of the noted argument that conservatives belief Black republicans proof the party against charges of racism.
If Trump is forced out of the race for any reason, it’ll come far too late for a replacement to join the race. Anybody else sufficiently loyal to serve as a substitute Trump later on probably won’t dare to enter before the primaries are underway. This may be the short list.