We’re getting fairly close to September 30, which is the end of the fiscal year, and that means the government has to come up with some new funding to remain fully operational. In other words, it’s almost time for another government shutdown, and just as I predicted back on January 2, Kevin McCarthy is up Shit’s Creek without a paddle. At that time, I identified two key moments when McCarthy’s speakership would be at grave risk.

The first came in late May when he had to find a way to pay the nation’s debts so we would not default, destroy our credit rating and probably cause a global recession. I was actually surprised that he was able to navigate that crisis without triggering a motion to vacate the chair which is a procedural move that, thanks to concessions McCarthy made to win the gavel, can be instigated by any member of the House of Representatives. It mandates a vote on whether or not the Speaker should be removed. When McCarthy struck a deal to pay our debts, he violated spending promises he had made to his right flank. They responded with fury and blocked any bills from being considered on the House floor for more than a week. Still, in the end, they let McCarthy survive. The problem, though, is that the episode made it more likely that they will look to remove him now, in the second key moment, over the annual spending bills.

In late June and early July, I wrote a couple of pieces about how McCarthy was prepositioning himself for this battle. In the first, I noted that he was humoring conservatives who wanted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and Attorney General Merrick Garland.

When it comes time to authorize the appropriations bills for the next fiscal year, McCarthy will have to strike another deal with the Democrats, and his right flank will go crazy. He thinks letting them do some cabinet impeachments now is a prophylactic against their coming backlash over government spending, but that is pure delusion. The reality is that McCarthy doesn’t have the power he needs to do his job. Every move he makes is a desperation move, like putting fingers in a dike.

In the second piece, I focused on so-called Republican moderates in the House who were “getting restless” about the radicalism of the right-wing of their caucus. As the Washington Post reported at the time, “a growing fear among many Republicans is that Freedom Caucus members will force a government shutdown over spending cuts.”  Well, that moment has nearly arrived, and as Sahil Kupur of NBC News reports, “some right-leaning Republicans insist McCarthy’s job isn’t safe if they don’t get what they want.”

This is why Kevin McCarthy decided to authorize an impeachment inquiry of Joe Biden on Tuesday despite there not being even a hint of justification for it. It’s kind a replay of the cabinet impeachments he teased in late spring. Because, in truth, McCarthy doesn’t have the votes to launch a formal impeachment inquiry. What he did instead was authorize a couple of key investigative committees to do some investigating, and he’s calling it an impeachment inquiry. As far as I can tell, this isn’t in accord with his original plan. He wanted to have a vote and when the vote failed he could argue to the right flank that he tried, but that evidently wasn’t a strong enough position to secure his position. The thing is, even this isn’t strong enough.

Minutes after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., announced an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden’s business dealings, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz said the probe was not enough to satisfy his desires to use the powers of Congress to wage war on the president’s administration.

The far-right Republican lawmaker said if McCarthy did not give into his demands he would begin the process of ousting the speaker.

“I rise today to serve notice: Mr. Speaker, you are out of compliance with the agreement that allowed you to assume this role,” Gaetz said on the House floor. “The path forward for the House of Representatives is to either bring you into immediate total compliance or remove you pursuant to a motion to vacate the chair.”

Now, in order to remove the Speaker, the majority of the House has to vote to vacate the chair. If all the Democrats vote against McCarthy, he will probably lose the gavel and an election will be held for a new Speaker. Had McCarthy been challenged back in June, the Democrats would have saved him as a reward for paying our debts on time, but now that he’s decided to start some kind of impeachment charade against the president, the Democrats are not so kindly inclined.

Here’s Punchbowl News:

There was a period of time after the debt-limit deal when some Democrats privately signaled they’d back McCarthy if GOP hardliners tried to oust him for “doing the right thing,” as Democratic aides put it to us.

That changes with the launching of an impeachment inquiry into Biden. And McCarthy’s actions will have far-reaching implications for his relationship with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

If the Democrats decide to protect McCarthy, they’ll want concessions on spending and assurances that Ukraine will continue to get congressional support. And if McCarthy gives them those assurances, he will cease to be the leader of the Republicans in the House and instead be the leader of a mostly Democratic caucus to which he owes his position.

This is the exact choice Speaker John Boehner faced in 2015 when his right flank revolted against him, and he decided to retire rather “make the necessary concessions and put up with the resulting vitriol from his own party and its supporters.” But, more importantly, if McCarthy intends to soldier on, he most certainly shouldn’t have gone the impeachment route.

It appears he doesn’t have a coherent plan beyond surviving from one moment to the next. There is no solution that works for him. The administration and the Senate, including Senate Republicans, and the House, including Republican moderates, do not want a government shutdown and will not support the kind of cuts being sought by the Freedom Caucus and other conservative members. McCarthy needs Democrats to keep the government open, or even to simple pass a continuing resolution to buy more time. He can’t seek their votes without triggering a motion to vacate the chair, and he can’t win such a motion without Democratic support.

So why antagonize the Democrats at nearly the moment he needs them?

I think the only thing that can save McCarthy now is Democratic fecklessness. If they’re too scared of the unknown to kill McCarthy’s political career, and they’re too weak to extract the kind of concessions required, then he might somehow squirm out of this. But his career should be over soon.