Steven Shepard writes for Politico that “Donald Trump couldn’t repeal Obamacare in 2017, largely because it had become too popular.” I don’t think that properly explains the failure. The real reason the Trump administration could not repeal the Affordable Care Act is because they couldn’t come up with a viable replacement.

Now, if you want to get down into the weeds, you’ll find that parts of the Affordable Care Act were popular and others were kind of essential to keep even in any alternative framework. So, in that sense, the Republicans realized that a simple wholesale repeal wouldn’t fly. They had to replace. And they couldn’t get the votes for their own replacement bill.

In any case, the longer the Republican pursued repeal without a viable alternative, the better the Affordable Care Act polled, but it wasn’t fear of being unpopular that sunk the effort. It was an inability to deal with basic reality that proved fatal.

The health care law is now polling at a near record high.

The latest KFF tracking poll, conducted in May, found 59 percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act, while 40 percent viewed it unfavorably. The 19-point net favorability advantage is the second-largest KFF has ever recorded — bested only by another poll earlier this year.

Independents and Democrats love Obamacare, and Republicans are still haters. But the key finding in this story is about intensity.

The 32 percent of Republican voters who say it’s “very important” for the 2024 candidates to discuss the future of the law is significantly fewer than the 49 percent of registered voters overall who agree.

By a 20-point margin, 59 percent to 39 percent, all voters say they trust the Democratic Party to do a better job handling the Affordable Care Act than the GOP.

Simply put, Obamacare isn’t on Republican voters’ minds anymore. They care about inflation, the border, crime, and sexual politics in schools. The rest of the country, however, is still interested in the provision of health coverage, and they trust the Democrats to do a better job.

That’s why Republican strategists were less than thrilled to hear Donald Trump renew his pledge to repeal Obamacare.

When Trump said last week he’d try again to repeal the law if he wins next year’s presidential election, he did more than pick at an electoral scab that party strategists hoped had healed by now. He threatened to bring back to life a potent electoral issue that contributed significantly to the GOP’s wipeout in the 2018 midterms and on which public opinion has only moved away from Republicans since…

…But for now, Obamacare remains more popular than the 2017 repeal fight. And given Democrats’ advantage on health care — both historic and present-day, according to the polling — any foray into the issue from Trump would be venturing into hostile territory.

I’m concerned that Trump will have some big advantages as a non-incumbent in the 2024 election, but on this particular issue I think he’s doing Biden a favor. And should he win anyway, God forbid, he will be able to fuck nearly every thing up and good, but probably not the Affordable Care Act.

Part of Trump’s problem is that he is focused almost entirely on the past. He isn’t coming up with new ideas but rather rehashing old applause lines. Some of the those applause lines just don’t work the way they used to, and that’s not even taking into account that he failed to repeal Obamacare when the idea actually was a big motivator for his base.