The stupid Republican primary in New Hampshire is over and now we all wait a full month until February 24 in South Carolina for another contest. This kind of stuff used to fun for political junkies, but there’s nothing interesting or suspenseful going on in either party’s nominating races.
Republicans in South Carolina like Trump much better than their own former governor, so Nikki Haley has no chance whatsoever of winning the next contest. There’s very little she can do to even try to change her fate, but it’s possible that fate can still smile on her campaign.
It all depends on whether the courtroom can begin to chip away at Trump’s support. Pretty soon, we’ll find out how much more money Trump will owe to E. Jean Carroll for raping and defaming her. This will be the second multimillion dollar award to Carroll, and since he simply won’t stop defaming her, the price tag could be staggeringly high and perhaps even include a third trial.
I think what will be more impactful however is the ruling in Trump’s fraud case in New York. Judge Engoron has promised to bring the shithammer down on Trump, his two nitwit sons, and the Trump Corporation by January 31. When last we saw Engoron, he has dealing with a MAGA bomb threat called in about his home. I expect the judge to chop up Trump’s business and have it sold off.
Naturally, Trump will appeal. He will eventually lose that appeal, but the fire sale of Trump Tower won’t take place before Election Night. I get that. I still see it as pretty damaging to his cult status to be pauperized by Letitia James. The truth is, Trump doesn’t win in court, almost ever. He has some success delaying things sometimes, but that’s it.
That’s why Haley needs to stay in the race, because eventually we’re going to get to one of Jack Smith’s two cases against Trump, either of which could send him to prison for the rest of his life. Now, it could be that both of Smith’s cases are pushed back past the Republican convention or even the election itself. In that case, Haley never had a chance.
Pretty much.
And with news today that Judge Chutkan scheduled another Jan. 6 defendant for an early April trial, that suggests she doesn’t expect Trump’s DC trial to start until mid-April. By then voters in at least 35 states will have already selected their delegates, meaning Trump will have the nomination locked up.
My guess is that she’s hoping for a Trump dementia moment that is so profound that it forces him from the race. She’s been talking about Trump’s mental state, so it’s clear that she’s aware of it. This seems like a more likely scenario that a jury verdict in the Jack Smith cases. At this point, it will be lucky if any of those cases even start before the convention.
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Whatever happens, she is clearly getting under Trump’s skin in a very big way and exposing GOP base voters to his mental confusion. And she is having fun doing it, which is fun to finally see a republican treating him with disdain and ridicule. Good for the general election, would be my thinking.