Month: January 2024

I understood this to be Ron DeSantis’s campaign strategy all along:

Some in DeSantis’ early political orbit did press him to attack Trump from the get-go because they thought there was no way to beat him without engaging, but DeSantis’ inner circle had other ideas. There was a continued belief at the time that support for Trump was “soft,” and if DeSantis did not anger Republican primary voters who previously supported Trump, those supporters would come over to him.

But there’s a second part of the strategy. For Trump’s ‘soft’ support to come over to DeSantis, he has to remain in the race.

Consider what Ankush Khardori wrote in Politico Magazine.

Nearly a third of Republican caucusgoers [in Iowa] told pollsters that Trump would not be “fit” for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime — a sizable defection that, if it held, would likely doom Trump’s general election chances.

For a long time now it has been clear that Trump would win the Iowa caucuses, and DeSantis has been aiming for a strong second place finish. He put all his resources into that project, and he basically met expectations. True, his second place was more distant than he would have liked but it should have been enough to stay the course.

Now the experts are arguing that DeSantis had to win Iowa and having lost it he has nowhere to go. He’s certain to come in third behind Trump and Haley on Tuesday in New Hampshire, and then the contest moves to Haley’s home state of South Carolina where Trump is heavily favored. My guess is that DeSantis just doesn’t have the stomach to fight on with a lean budget and a vastly diminished staff, but the game here was always to stay alive until verdicts start coming in on Trump. It makes no sense to drop out before the verdicts.

Some might argue that the verdicts are too far in the future and may not come at all, but honestly there was never any other strategy that could work. Absent weakness from legal humiliations and convictions, Trump was always destined to arrive in Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention with the most delegates, and almost definitely an outright majority of them. The key, then, was to position yourself as the one to pick up the pieces if it turns out Trump is going to prison for a very long time.

Maybe DeSantis thinks dropping out now and endorsing Trump is the best way to position himself for the convention. I disagree. He looks like a weakling and a punk, and he’s giving up the chance to build at least a rump of delegate support. If the Republicans go to a second ballot in a contested convention, DeSantis just hurt his chances of coming out on top. It would have been far better to try to wait Haley out to see if she would drop out of the race at some point. After all, his Super PAC was called Never Back Down. And then he took one punch in the nose and backed down.

He not only backed down, but he endorsed Trump at the critical moment, thereby forfeiting any high ground later.

Just a shameful performance on the Florida governor’s part.

 

One year from today will be the first full day of either President Joe Biden’s second term in office or Donald Trump’s second term in office. That’s the way things look right now, at least. In any case, it will be the first full day of someone’s term in office. So much depends on the identify of that person, and it really isn’t far away.

But Politico is worried about a different question. Who will be the leader of the House Republicans in the next Congress? Will it be current Speaker of the House Mike Johnson?

It’s interesting that reporter Olivia Beavers succeeded in getting so many Republican politicians to opine on this subject. There seems to be no shortage of members who are focused on the question. A prevailing view is that Johnson will remain as the leader if the Republicans maintain control of the House, but he will be replaced if the GOP goes into the minority. There are some who think he could survive a loss of the majority and some who think he won’t even make as leader until Election Day.

Then there’s Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia who says, “I don’t think he’s safe right now. The only reason he’s speaker is because our conference is so desperate.” She is apparently considering a motion to vacate the chair, the same procedure Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida used to initiate the downfall of Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Even before McCarthy won the gavel last January, I argued that the Republicans did not have a functional governing majority in the House. In order to pay our debts on time and keep the government open and operational, a bipartisan coalition consisting of mostly Democrats is required. It’s a concept that hard right Republicans are simply too dense to understand.

McCarthy was bounced for using Democrats to pass spending and debt bills. His replacement Johnson, is using Democrats to pass spending and debt bills. It’s not a choice. It’s his only option if he wants to avoid a credit default and a government shutdown. Will he be kneecapped for it?

I suspect that he will stay right where he is so long as Trump is in his corner, but that brings up the issue of military aid to Ukraine. As Putin’s puppet, Trump wants Ukraine subjugated and brought under the Kremlin’s control. Johnson appears to be on board, refusing to consider a bipartisan bill negotiated in the Senate that would address illegal border crossings as well as aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Paul Kane at the Washington Post explains how Russian stooges are using opposition to the bipartisan Senate immigration bill as cover for doing Putin’s bidding:

It’s an open secret, however, that many conservatives have latched onto this issue as a way to simply avoid voting in support of the more than $60 billion that Biden has requested to shore up Ukraine’s defenses. No major immigration-and-border legislation has passed in four decades, so it’s always seemed likely to fail and, therefore, tank the Ukraine aide with it.

A coalition of outside conservative groups have gone after the emerging border deal as too soft, hoping for a bank shot that sinks the Senate deal and stifles aid to Ukraine.

Most of these anti-Ukraine Republicans are relatively new to Congress and reflexively fall in line with ex-president Donald Trump’s opposition to backing Ukraine.

Johnson instinctively belongs to this group, and placating them may be key to his survival. On the other hand, coughing up the foreign aid might lead Democrats to save him from any motion to vacate, so he has decisions to make.

And in the scenario where Trump either loses the nomination or the general election, his grip on the party will be loosened and Johnson may have more freedom of maneuver. But let’s try to imagine one year from now in a situation where Trump has lost and the Democrats control the House. In that scenario, wouldn’t it be a good time for the House Republicans to hit the reset button?

If the GOP hangs onto the House, Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) predicted no “substantive change in the leadership structure.”

“But if you lose the House, then I think all bets are off,” he added. “And there may be a desire and discussion about starting over or coming up with a different leadership team.”

Personally, I believe the Republicans, and especially the House Republicans, are perfectly suited for serving in the minority where they can make all the unreasonable demands they want without ever having to executive the job of governing the country. It’s much harder for them to pick leaders when they’re in the majority. The only Speaker they’ve chosen who had any staying power was the child molester Dennis Hastert.

Ultimately, these folks are actually happier in the minority. We should put them there.

I agree with Rebecca Boyle. She argues in the New York Times that we ought to stop and think about what we’re doing before we just casually turn the moon into another piece of turf humans fight over for resources. Most people don’t realize what is about to happen.

Before this decade is out, if you have a powerful enough telescope, you may be able to see evidence of human construction or even habitation on the moon. In May of 2023, the accounting firm PwC estimated the global space industry was worth $469 billion and will top $1 trillion by 2030…“We are now at an inflection point, where ideas previously confined to the pages of science fiction represent attractive investment ventures,” PwC’s report read.

But of course we’re not capable of slowing this down, nor of thoughtfulness. We are far too busy trying to kill each other in Ukraine, in Israel, and Gaza and Sudan and Myanmar. Our world is full of flashpoints and arguments, and we are nowhere near the ecumenical one-world government represented by Gene Roddenberry’s United Federation of Planets.

Part of NASA’s present moon mission is to set it up as a slingshot for a Mars mission but I honestly don’t think humans are a fit species for interplanetary colonization. The Israelis crashed some tardigrades into the moon in 2019. What are those, you ask? They’re pretty cool, actually.

Tardigrades, as they are formally known today, are also sometimes called “moss piglets,” after their chubby, ho-hum appearance and lackadaisical demeanor. But their adorable nicknames and amusing features shouldn’t be mistaken for weakness—tardigrades are one of Earth’s most resilient creatures, possessing a near-immortality and a wherewithal to survive extreme conditions that has intrigued scientists for centuries.

Setting aside the willy-nilly way we’re introducing life to the lunar surface, I’d prefer tardigrades as space colonizers to violent apes like ourselves. I can’t think of one thing Mars has done to deserve us and the kind of murder we bring in our wake.

It’s like psychologists say, we have a lot of work to do on ourselves before we go around telling other planets what to do. I don’t want more of the same earthly resource extraction wars, but this time on the Moon or the asteroid belt.

I’m in favor of space research, but not space colonization. Maybe if can we figure out how to live together peacefully without destroying our own habitat, I’ll reconsider. But that’s not going to happen in any of our lifetimes.

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Cape May, New Jersey scene. The photo that I’m using (My own from a recent visit.) is seen directly below.

I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 5×7 inch canvas panel.

When last seen the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I’ve now begun the houses and foreground.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

Two weeks before the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, the Pew Research Center discussed survey results on Israeli public opinion about the prospects for a two-state solution.

Only 35% of Israelis think “a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully,” according to the survey, which was conducted in March and April, prior to the latest violence in the West Bank. That represents a decline of 9 percentage points since 2017 and 15 points since 2013.

The Israeli right showed the most movement. On the question of “the possibility of a peaceful coexistence between Israel and a Palestinian state,” 27 percent on the right had been optimistic in 2017 but only 14 percent remained so in the spring of 2023.

There are also large divides along ideological lines: 73% of Israelis on the political left say a way can be found for two states to coexist, compared with 53% of those in the center and 14% of those on the right.

These numbers are kind of irrelevant in the post-October 7 world. Obviously, Israelis of all ideological proclivities are now far less optimistic about peaceful coexistence. But, more importantly, they’re also less interested in peace.

“Israelis are in belligerent mood,” pollster Dahlia Scheindlin told POLITICO. She was speaking after a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 75 percent of Jewish Israelis think the country should ignore mounting pressure from the United States to wind down the war in Gaza. And another poll by Gallup recently showed that 65 percent oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

In this sense, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in tune with the public, even if he is blamed for the success of the October 7 attack. They agree with him that for the “foreseeable future…Israel must have security control over the entire territory west of the Jordan River.” That territory includes all of Gaza and all of the West Bank. They do not want a two-state solution, and Netanyahu promises to prevent one.

This puts Israel on an island. The United States is speaking ever more emphatically about a Palestinian state as a necessary part of ending hostilities, and it’s  pitching normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia (and others) as part of the deal.

There is “no way” to solve Israel’s long-term security challenges in the region and the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday.

Speaking at a news briefing, Miller said Israel had an opportunity right now as countries in the region were ready to provide security assurances to Israel.

“There is no way to solve [Israel’s] long-term challenges to provide lasting security, and there is no way to solve the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza, of establishing governance in Gaza and of providing security for Gaza, without the establishment of a Palestinian state,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said upon being asked to respond to Netanyahu at a press briefing.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide was on point when he said, “The Israeli Prime Minister’s statements are out of step with an almost unified international community.”

Thus it appears that a solution is at hand if only Netanyahu would change his position or be replaced by a more moderate leader. But this is misleading. Israel’s political system is difficult to master in the best of times, and creating and maintaining a governing coalition in the Knesset is usually an excruciating process. It’s simply not possible to ignore overwhelming public sentiment against a two-state solution and remain in power. Truthfully, Netanyahu’s position may be the only reason he hasn’t already been forced out.

The problem is a complete disconnect between how the Israeli public perceives the situation and how basically everyone one else perceives it. Israelis feel completely insecure. At this point, they don’t even trust their own leadership to protect them. They think the Arabs demonstrated on October 7 how they really feel, and that trading land for peace is a sucker’s game that will undermine their ability to withstand future attacks.

The rest of the world thinks October 7 proved that Israel can never be secure until it goes back to the basic model of the Oslo Accords. And it matters that Israel’s allies are united in this opinion, because they need financial, military, and diplomatic aid from their allies. That will dry up pretty quickly if Israel refuses to accept the advice they’re getting.

As things stand, Israel faces charges from South Africa in the International Criminal Court that it has through “acts and omissions” committed acts that are  “genocidal in character” against the people of Gaza. The case will not be resolved for years, but in the meantime the court could order Israel to stop its military actions in Gaza, allow more humanitarian assistance or take others actions to prevent genocide and incitement to genocide. If. Israel were to ignore these orders, their isolation would grow. It’s easy to foresee that allies would face increasing public pressure of their own not to aid and abet a presumptively genocidal government.

What needs to happen here is that Israeli public opinion needs to change. But it will only change in response to tangible, credible signs that they can trust security arrangements and agreements in the future. And the future in this case is pretty much forever, in perpetuity, for all time. That’s a very tall order, and nothing we’re seeing right now really comes close to satisfying it. Israel is still under constant rocket fire from Gaza and Lebanon. Hamas still has over a hundred hostages.

It’s a good start for America to line up regional Arab powers to offer peace and normalization in return for a Palestinian state, but the trust issue is a harder nut to crack. At the moment, Israeli believers in peace feel like dupes, and are perceived as fools. That’s a hard thing to change on a short timeline, and it requires something bolder that what’s on offer right now.

Howdy. It’s always midweek somewhere. And now let’s take a Closer Look:

Until next time, cheers!

Verizon took over eight days to restore my television and internet after a windy storm passed through the Philadelphia area on January 10 and took out a lot of fiberoptic lines. Their customer service was abysmal. They consistently said they were committed to restoring my service within 16 hours, but the truth is that they should have known from the beginning that it would be many days before they could get to my area. This disrupted my ability to plan, and it was extremely problematic from CabinGirl who also works from home. Just an awful experience, and it doesn’t help that Comcast, which is the main alternative, has an even worse reputation.

I have a lot of built up stress from this experience, and I’m extremely pissed off.

It doesn’t help that I just realized that Zandar passed away in November without me noticing. There are fewer and fewer of us original bloggers left, and I took comfort knowing Zandar was still with me fighting the stupid. His last post mocked Elise Stefanik who is now at the top of Trump’s list for running mates. Everyone should take a moment to think about Zandar’s commitment to the fight. His real name was Jonathan David Mott and he was 48 years old. Here’s his obituary. He was one of the very best at what he did.

I missed quite a lot while I was mostly offline, including developments in the Middle East and the Iowa caucuses. Chris Christie, Vivek the Fake and Asa Hutchinson dropped out of the race. A lot is going on in Congress too, and Trump’s trial schedule is picking up steam. There’s plenty to write about, and I know Jon Mott would have done a great job covering all of it. I suppose I will pick up his banner and carry on as best as I can, both here and on the pondcast.

Onward.

We had a windstorm on Tuesday and I lost power and internet. The power came back on Wednesday but the internet, along with my landline phone and my television, is still out. Verizon keeps telling me they are committed to having it fixed by a time certain only for that time certain to pass. For example, they told me it would be fixed by 11am yesterday, then said 5:30pm then 11:15am today, and then 5:30am tomorrow. Meanwhile, my AT&T hotspot, which has been my only access to the internet, is now throttled from overuse, so I am effectively unable to function.

I apologize for being unproductive this week, but there’s really nothing I can do.

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Cape May, New Jersey scene. The photo that I’m using (My own from a recent visit.) is seen directly below.

I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 5×7 inch canvas panel.

When last seen the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I have now painted the sky. Much more for next week’s installment.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

On Episode 8 of the Progress Pondcast, Brendan and I ponder magnets. We think we know how they work, but Trump doesn’t have a clue. We approve of Joe Biden’s new obscene nickname for Trump. It’s hilarious, and all part of taking Trump (and Rudy G.) down to the studs.  Everybody needs to play their part, as E. Jean Carroll and Fani Willis clearly understand.

And we discuss the Moms for Liberty seeming rampage of multi-state sexual depravity and violence. A lot of drunk kids get punched in the face and there’s more adultery and bisexuality than you can shake a stick at.

It’s the first pondcast of 2024, which is partly a look back at 2023 and partly a look forward to possible armageddon in 2024. Tune in to find out why I might want to be put in a soup can and fired into the Sun. Or maybe tune in just because you like that magnet song by the Insane Clown Posse.