The polls on the Biden-Trump rematch are incomprehensibly bad for Biden. They’re even more incomprehensibly good for Trump. That’s certainly true of the latest national poll from NBC News, which has Trump leading on a host of issues including competence and effectiveness, mental and physical health, the economy, foreign policy and America’s standing in the world, and crime, immigration and the border.
Biden’s approval numbers are at a new low in the NBC poll, which is consistent with other polls. It’s completely unclear why this is the case. The economy is performing spectacularly, especially when you consider where it was when Biden took over from Trump. And, yes, I know that inflation turned the American people on Biden, but they are beginning to recognize that things have turned a corner and yet they give Biden no credit for it.
Some of these results are preposterous, like the idea that Trump has good mental health or would improve America’s standing in the world. But I am not in the business of waving off poll numbers I don’t like or don’t understand. Right now, Trump should be considered a moderately strong favorite to beat Biden. Yet, it’s hard to believe these types of numbers will hold for Trump.
In the new NBC News poll, Biden holds the advantage over Trump among Black voters (75% to 16%), women (50% to 40%) and white people with college degrees (50% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has leads among white people without college degrees (62% to 29%), men (56% to 34%) and independents (48% to 29%).
The two men are essentially tied among Latinos (Trump 42%, Biden 41%) and voters ages 18-34 (at 42% each). Among the youngest slice of voters measured, those ages 18-29, Biden has a narrow advantage (Biden 46%, Trump 38%).
Is Trump really going to win the Latino vote? Will he really tie Biden with voters under 35? Is there a chance he’ll carry 16 percent of the black vote? Can Biden possibly get barely more than a third of men? And will women only give Biden a 10 point edge?
That’s what these groups are saying right now in these surveys, but that would be a mind-blowing collapse of the Democratic coalition, to put it mildly. And all in favor of a person like Trump?
I’m very worried because these numbers are getting confirmed enough that there must be something to it, but I just can’t for the life of me understand why this is happening or what to do about it.
