Don’t Listen to Nate

President Biden is the strongest force standing against Trump’s fascist takeover.

There are only two reasons why Joe Biden should consider not running for reelection. The first is if he doesn’t think he’s up to four more years in the job. And the second is if he thinks he’s going to lose to Donald Trump but another Democrat would win. Now, I remember when Nate Silver assured me that Trump had only a 20 percent chance of being the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2016, so I don’t put much stock his powers of prognostication. But I do not necessarily disagree with him when he says Biden should drop out. Increasingly, I’ve been thinking the same thing.

But when I have that thought, I move to the second or third thought. For example, what do we know about how Vice-President Kamala Harris is polling against Trump in a head-to-head matchup? If that scenario doesn’t look promising, what would Biden’s plan be to guide the convention to a different flag-bearer? Would denying Harris the nomination do too much damage to the cohesion and enthusiasm of the party? For example, if Gavin Newsom were nominated instead of Harris, how would that go over?

Silver doesn’t ask these questions. He just insists that Biden is vulnerable–an underdog, really–because of his age. But age isn’t a knock against Harris. What if her head-to-heads against Trump are the same or even worse than Biden’s? A new Emerson poll has Trump beating Harris and Newsom by bigger margins than Biden, so perhaps age isn’t the core of the problem here. Maybe getting younger isn’t a magic cure for what ails the Democrats. When are we going to grapple with the important “why-in-the-fuck” question of the American people still supporting Trump and his nakedly criminal and fascist movement?

Right now, today, the polls say the pro-Trump coalition is winning and on track to win in November. Is this because the economy is doing badly? Is it because of scandal in the White House?

The strongest thing standing against Trump right now actually is Joe Biden, the president of the United States. So, before we go calling on him to step down, we better have a good idea of how that’s supposed to improve the situation. And I don’t see how it improves the situation.

I can envision best case scenarios, but who is really in a position to navigate the party through to an optimal ticket for the fall? Does President Biden even have the pull and power to push Harris aside and set up an alternate replacement? Because I cannot agree Harris could be part of any optimal ticket.

Since Silver doesn’t ask these questions, it seems more like he’s just taking shots at Biden than offering constructive advice for preserving our form of government past the next election. It’s trollish.

Saturday Painting Palooza Vol.966

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Cape May, New Jersey scene. The photo that I’m using (My own from a recent visit.) is seen directly below.

I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 5×7 inch canvas panel.

When last seen the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I’ve now further refined the house to the left. Note the second story windows.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

Down to the Studs

The disgraced ex-president is watching everything he values being taken away from him. It ends with his freedom.

I have been waiting nine years for a judge to bring the hammer down on Donald Trump and expose him for the fraud that he is, and now the day has come, I’ve been waiting for the justice system to take this man down to the studs, and today’s ruling took an enormous step in that direction.

Former President Donald Trump and the Trump Organization must pay $354 million in fines, a judge ruled Friday, issuing his long-awaited judgment in the state’s civil fraud case. The decision also bars them from seeking loans from financial institutions in New York for a period of three years, and includes a three-year ban on Trump serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation.

Judge Arthur Engoron handed down his judgment in a 92-page decision on Friday. The ruling is one of the largest corporate sanctions in New York history. Trump has vowed to appeal.

The judge’s decision also blocks Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, and Jeffrey McConney, former corporate controller, from serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation or other legal entity in the state for three years, and permanently bans them from serving in the “financial control function” of any New York corporation.

“The evidence is overwhelming that Allen Weisselberg and Jeffrey McConney cannot be entrusted with controlling the finances of any business,” Engoron’s order states.

In addition to imposing limits on Trump’s business activities, the order bans his two oldest sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump, Jr., from serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation or legal entity for two years.

Unfortunately, I can’t celebrate this the way I’d like because I have Covid-19. I tested positive on Thursday, and now I am quarantined in an upper room of my house. I don’t feel all that terrible, thanks to having recently gotten my booster, but I am not really up to doing serious writing. I’m kind of bummed my streak ended, but I went out to eat at a crowded restaurant, and if you don’t take precautions, you get Covid. That’s just how it is. Now I’m just trying to keep the rest of my family’s streak going.

In the meantime, I am savoring watching Trump be down apart piece by piece by piece by piece.

Odds & Ends

Here are some stories I’ve been thinking about.

It’s astonishing how far corporations will go to shape public opinion about their harmful products. Consider the plastics industry.

Have you ever heard the Saga of Sweet Medicine? Have you ever heard of the Cheyenne’s four sacred arrows? Do you know the story of how a Cheyenne medicine man named Bull lost the sacred arrows during an 1830 battle with the Pawnee?

The Republicans of Bucks County, Pennsylvania just took a shellacking in a special election. They were just crushed.

Opinion about Gaza among my Jewish friends is varied, but it really does trend heavily against the approach pursued by Netanyahu. Of course, none of my Jewish friends are Israelis or right-wingers.

I still don’t know what Alejandro Mayorkas did to get impeached, but at the least the New York Times tried to explain. The Washington Post never even made an attempt. The answer, of course, is that Mayorkas did nothing, but why is it so hard to articulate what he’s accused of having done? The Lewinsky scandal was a lot easier to understand.

I’ve been thinking about writing an explainer on the discharge petition which might be used to force the U.S. House of Representatives to vote on a foreign/military aid bill for Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel. But it’s possible that a different trick will be used. Punchbowl News has a scenario where supporters of the bill can wrest control of the House floor by defeating a motion on “moving the previous question.” Either way, something must be done because Speaker Johnson isn’t going to bring the bill to a vote on his own.

It’s kind of a downer to have Valentines Day on Ash Wednesday, don’t you think? I’ll focus instead on it being my fathers 91st birthday. He tells me he’s always disliked having a Feb. 14 birthday, which makes me sad. But then one of my closest friends was born on January 6, and that’s been ruined.

Maybe it’s just me, but I think the Progress Pondcast sounds better on Apple than on Spotify. Can you tell the difference?

People Are Bad At Killing Themselves Without Guns

Less than ten percent of suicide attempts are successful if a gun is not involved.

Something obvious that I hadn’t thought about is that people who fire guns a lot, or are around people who fire guns a lot, are much more likely to suffer hearing loss. And that means that Republicans are much more likely to be hard of hearing than Democrats. I could insert a joke here, but I’ll just say that maybe there should be more education about this issue.

Another things that’s obvious is that guns and suicide have a tight relationship, but I didn’t realize how significant it is.

Most gun deaths in America are suicides, and most suicides in America involve guns. Academics have found gun suicide so pervasive and predictable that it can be used as a reliable measure of gun ownership in an area. While the impulse to kill yourself may be somewhat evenly distributed, guns are not. And firearms make suicide attempts much deadlier.

Overall, fewer than 2 in 20 suicide attempts are fatal — unless they involve a gun, in which case 17 in 20 end in death, according to a recent analysis by Catherine Barber of Harvard University, Philip J. Cook of Duke University and Susan T. Parker, now at Northeastern University.

Now, I know that people own guns for a variety of reasons including that they just like them, but one of the more compelling reasons is for protection. I think some folks can’t imagine not having a gun around just in case they have to deal with a home invasion (including by bears!) because they don’t want to feel they’d be powerless to protect their family. But there’s a law of unintended consequences and it plays out whenever there’s a gun suicide. Very few people buy guns with the thought they they will one day use it to take their own life, and almost no one does it to help a loved one kill themselves sometime in the future.

Of course, we can add simple gun accidents to the list here, because you need a gun to have a gun accident. And if the idea was to protect your family, an accidental fatality resulting from a gun you purchased is a major d’oh.

When it comes strictly to suicides however, I really stared at those numbers. We all know that people try and fail to commit suicide all the time, and often they go on to have rich and fulfilling lives that last decades. And now I see that less than 10 percent of non-gun suicide attempts are successful. Wow. Thank god for that. So many people get through their worst days for the simple reason that they didn’t turn a gun on themselves. And most of them probably did not have a gun as an option.

When a gun is an option, it’s usually game over. And that’s a pretty compelling reason to keep guns away from yourself and your loved ones, because we all have really bad days now and then.

Super Bowl Follows Dark Brandon’s Script

It was a fairy tale ending for some, and a nightmare for the cult of Trump.

That was a weird Super Bowl. Both teams’ defenses played very well, but the offenses and special teams were filled with very consequential mistakes. Two of the biggest plays in the game were a fumbled punt return and a missed extra point attempt. The team that lost actually dominated the game for three quarters but couldn’t build a substantial lead. In the end, neither team played like the best team in football, but it did go to overtime, so as ragged as it was to watch at times, it didn’t disappoint in the suspense category. Patrick Mahomes delivered a legendary do-or-die drive to win the Lombardi Trophy, exactly as the Deep State had scripted it.

I didn’t want either team to win. As a New York Giants fan, the 49ers are a legendary rival. As are the Eagles where Chiefs head coach Andy Reid coached for 14 years and seemingly beat the Giants twice a year the whole time (actual record: 15-13, plus 2-1 record in the playoffs). I found myself rooting for the 49ers unsure of exactly why, but primarily because it was such a pleasure to watch their defense blow up all Andy Reid’s plays.

Yet, somewhere in the back of my mind I never forgot about the Taylor Swift angle. A loss for the Chiefs would be a loss for Travis Kelce which would put a sour note his fairy tale romance with Swift who everyone knows was just there to endorse Joe Biden’s reelection. I knew the whole MAGA world was ironically rooting for the gay marxist team from the Bay Area. Did I really want them to celebrate at Travis and Taylor’s expense?

The answer was ‘no,’ and so as Mahomes received the ball in overtime with one chance to win the Super Bowl for Team Biden, I at last saw enough value in such an outcome that I could root for it. I was hoping Kelce would make the winning catch.

That didn’t happen, but an exciting finish did. It was a highly entertaining game and super competitive, unlike so many Super Bowls that have been blowout mismatches (remember when the gay marxist team beat the Denver Broncos 55-10? That was boring).

And now that Travis and Taylor have been crowned world champions, they can sweep all enemies from the field and save the world from fascism.

I’ll remember this Super Bowl more than most.

Saturday Painting Palooza Vol.965

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Cape May, New Jersey scene. The photo that I’m using (My own from a recent visit.) is seen directly below.

I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on a 5×7 inch canvas panel.

When last seen the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I have now refined the left side house. I really like the pattern of light and shadow.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

Give Hunter S. Thompson His Due

You don’t have to overlook his vast personal failings or exaggerate his talents to acknowledge his contributions and worth.

I have been having a disagreement with Rick Perlstein on Facebook about the merits of Hunter S. Thompson’s work, particularly with respect to Thompson’s coverage of the 1972 campaign. Perlstein has been fact-checking Fear & Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72 and finding it badly wanting in the accuracy department. So it goes.

For my money, Thompson’s description of Ed Muskie’s whistle stop tour from Jacksonville to Miami is a classic of American reporting, although I might concede that it’s more literature than reporting. Today it’s remembered in part for the false accusation Thompson leveled at Muskie, originally in the pages of Rolling Stone, that the Man from Maine had developed a dependency on Ibogaine.

The drug Hunter claimed Muskie was being treated with was a little-known root called Tabernanthe Iboga or Ibogaine. “It has been used for centuries by natives of Africa, Asia, and South America in conjunction with fetishistic and mythical ceremonies,” reads the excerpt from a study by PharmChem Laboratories, which was included in the Rolling Stone story:

“At a dose of 300 mg., given orally, the subject experiences visions, changes of perception of the environment, and delusions or alterations of thinking,” the study concludes: “Ibogaine produces a state of drowsiness in which the subject does not wish to move, open his eyes, or be aware of his environment.”

The root, which is meant to be consumed by hunters, allowing them to remain completely still for days on end, was the only way to explain Muskie’s stupor and his terrible performance on the trail.

It should be noted that Thompson also, in the same article, stated that “It had been common knowledge for many weeks that [Hubert] Humphrey was using an exotic brand of speed known as Wallot.”

This stuff wasn’t supposed to be taken seriously, but it was believed to be literally true by enough people that a surprised Hunter felt compelled to explain it was bullshit after the election was over. Admittedly, Thompson’s coverage was a new mix of fact and fantasy which was confusing in part for its sheer novelty. It came to be known as Gonzo journalism, and it never made a pretense to fairness. Thompson was openly sympathetic to the campaign of George McGovern, and was savage in his criticism of all McGovern’s competitors, including George Wallace.

In my mind, it’s a mistake to fact check Thompson’s work as if by doing so you can somehow discredit him. For Perlstein, it’s fundamentally dishonest and also a disservice to the reader to make shit up without being explicit about it. And, given that Hunter felt compelled to clear things up later, I suppose he would have agreed that his reporting had some unintended negative effect.

But what’s actually weird, at least for me, is that I am defending Thompson. In truth, my opinion of him has dipped quite a lot, basically from the moment he took his own life in his kitchen while on the phone with his wife. I can forgive him his addictions and some of the resulting behaviors, but he turned out to be lousy person in the end.

Even at his best, he represented a counterestablishmentarianism that became so suspicious of power that it conceded it to the Reagan Right and had no appetite to claw it back. I found this idealism attractive when Thompson was young and optimistic, and tragic when Nixon’s stomping of McGovern broke his heart and destroyed his faith in America and Americans. I can forgive almost all of it, except it’s nothing to emulate and we all had to keep going and pick up the pieces where we could while Thompson wasted the rest of his life and talent in nihilistic thrill-seeking and debauchery.

But I have to give the man his due. He had his moment. Perhaps his greatest moment was his description of Muskie’s ride on the Sunshine Special. The basics of the story are that Thompson overslept in West Palm Beach and was left off the train. In his place, a man named Peter Sheridan, using Thompson’s press credentials, boarded and immediately started drinking heavily and causing mayhem. Many mistook this man for Thompson himself. And it ended badly in Miami when Sheridan, along with Jerry Rubin, heckled Muskie as he attempted to give a speech from the caboose.

But ask yourself, was this supposed to be taken literally?

There was no doubt about it: The Man from Maine had turned to massive doses of Ibogaine as a last resort. The only remaining question was “when did he start?” But nobody could answer this one, and I was not able to press the candidate himself for an answer because I was permanently barred from the Muskie campaign after that incident on the “Sunshine Special” in Florida . . . and that scene makes far more sense now than it did at the time. Muskie has always taken pride in his ability to deal with hecklers; he has frequently challenged them, calling them up to the stage in front of big crowds and then forcing the poor bastards to debate with him in a blaze of TV lights.

But there was none of that in Florida. When the Boohoo [Peter Sheridan] began grabbing at his legs and screaming for more gin, Big Ed went all to pieces . . . which gave rise to speculation. among reporters familiar with his campaign style in ’68 and ’70, that Muskie was not himself. It was noted, among other things, that he had developed a tendency to roll his eyes wildly during TV interviews, that his thought patterns had become strangely fragmented, and that not even his closest advisors could predict when he might suddenly spiral off into babbling rages, or neocomatose funks.

In restrospect, however, it is easy to see why Muskie fell apart on that caboose platform in the Miami train station. There he was — far gone in a bad Ibogaine frenzy — suddenly shoved out in a rainstorm to face a sullen crowd and some kind of snarling lunatic going for his legs while he tried to explain why he was “the only Democrat who can beat Nixon.”

It is entirely conceivable — given the known effects of Ibogaine — that Muskie’s brain was almost paralyzed by hallucinations at the time; that he looked out at that crowd and saw gila monsters instead of people, and that his mind snapped completely when he felt something large and apparently vicious clawing at his legs. We can only speculate on this, because those in a position to know have flatly refused to comment on rumors concerning the Senator’s disastrous experiments with Ibogaine. I tried to find the Brazilian doctor [who purportedly procured the Ibogaine] on election night in Milwaukee, but by the time the polls closed he was long gone. One of the hired bimbos in Milwaukee’s Holiday Inn headquarters said a man with fresh welts on his head had been dragged out the side door and put on a bus to Chicago, but we were never able to confirm this. . . .

There was a certain kind of thrill in reading this kind of reporting, but not because it was supposed to convince us that leading Democratic contenders for the 1972 presidential nomination were whacked out on speed and third world hallucinogens. It was a way of contrasting the hip and the square, the straight and the transgressive, and the boring from the exciting. That’s basically why it belonged in a publication like Rolling Stone which catered to a generation that wanted something more than Perry Como and Frank Sinatra.

The truth was more mundane. Muskie’s campaign was faltering. His stump speeches were tame, repetitive and barely newsworthy. He was badly off his game and going to lose as a result. Thompson was telling us why in a way that wasn’t possible for the straight reporters. For that moment in time, it was glorious.

Laughing At Fascists Is Good for Your Health

The House Republicans are too incompetent to carry off their white nationalist agenda without falling on their asses.

I take my pleasures where I can find them, and I think I now better understand why Mel Brooks and whoever came up with Hogan’s Heroes got such a kick out of making Nazis seem silly and ridiculous rather than sinister and evil. I speak of course, of the spectacle that unfolded on Tuesday, February 6, 2024 under the Capitol Dome in Washington, DC. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson of Louisiana brought a resolution to the floor to impeach Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas, the Secretary of Homeland Security, for high crimes and misdemeanors.

Sec. Mayorkas had done nothing discernible wrong. He wasn’t guilty of treason or bribery or any high crime whatsoever, and he didn’t stand accused of any known misdemeanors. In fact, the broad public had no idea what Mayorkas was supposed to have done to deserve this kind of public humiliation and professional rebuke. Truthfully, in the lead-up the case was so weak and incomprehensible that the upcoming impeachment vote was only the third or fourth biggest story on the various news channels. And the news channels couldn’t explain any rationale beyond blind rage and spite. Considering this was only the second impeachment of a cabinet officer in the history of the country, and the first since 1876, the lack of news interest was itself somehow newsworthy.

Because it was clear that the U.S. Senate would immediately flush a impeachment referral based on nothing more than policy disputes down the nearest drain hole after the most truncated trial they could devise, the coverage emphasized the odd juxtaposition of the House Republicans turning down a tough bipartisan Senate immigration bill while accusing the Homeland Security secretary of criminal laxity on the border.

But galactic hypocrisy wasn’t the most savory item on Tuesday’s menu. As you might imagine, it took some doing to convince all the members of the House Republican caucus to vote in favor of impeaching a man for nothing, and there were two members who flat-out refused to go along with the plan. But that seemed manageable when the Republicans learned that Democratic lawmaker Al Green of Houston, Texas was in the hospital after undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. This meant the Republicans could afford to lose three votes from their own caucus and still pass the impeachment resolution.

But two things happened that Speaker Mike Johnson hadn’t considered. The first was that Republican congressman Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin revealed himself as a third ‘no’ vote, later explaining that impeaching Mayorkas would “set a dangerous new precedent that will be weaponized against future Republican administrations.” That reduced their cushion to zero. Then the second thing happened:

With the final minutes for the vote dwindling, the House watched intently on Tuesday night to see whether any more Republicans would defect on the resolution to impeach Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary…

…Then, like a scene out of a political thriller, Representative Al Green, Democrat of Texas, appeared at the last moment to cast a surprise ballot — from a wheelchair, wearing blue hospital clothing and tan socks. He voted no.

Mr. Green’s vote was decisive. It tied up the measure, 215 to 215, and handed a stunning defeat to Speaker Mike Johnson.

In a procedural move that allows the House Republican leadership to bring the resolution up again in the future, Rep. Blake D. Moore of Utah, the vice chairman of the GOP conference,  changed his yes vote to no making the final tally 214-216. As a result, the resolution failed and Speaker Johnson was forced to make the announcement himself.

You can use whatever analogy you want, e.g. Keystone Cops, but this was an absolutely comical pratfall of incompetence and comeuppance for the House Republicans. It’s so slapstick that it risks humanizing their behavior in the same way the essentially decent Colonel Klink and Sgt. Schultz of Hogan’s Heroes risked trivializing the Holocaust and other Nazi crimes. But sometimes you just have to laugh at fascists in order to keep your sanity.

This is one of those times.