It’s a matter of despondency for me that Donald Trump is leading in the polls, or even that his campaign has a pulse, but as Nate Cohn of the New York Times notes, Joe Biden has been moving in the right direction since his State of the Union address. And if I am going to be an optimist, which is my preferred disposition, I’ll note that this is the predictable outcome of 2020 Biden voters coming back to him as the election draws nearer. In other words, Trump’s polling advantage has largely been an artifact of his stronger hold on his base, but that doesn’t mean his base has grown above the level that lost him the popular vote eight years ago and the Electoral College four years ago. Most non-Trump voters from 2020 are still going to be non-Trump voters in 2024, even if they’re not saying they support the current president quite yet.

Jonathan Martin writes for Politico Magazine that “It has been close to an open secret in the diplomatic corps that America’s allies and adversaries are anticipating a Trump restoration” which explains why British former Prime and current Foreign Minister David Cameron recently visited Mar-a-Lago. This makes sense looking at the polling data, even if Biden is narrowing the gap. But Martin sees strong headwinds to Trump’s campaign beyond the obvious legal ones that will come into focus beginning with his Stormy Daniels trial that begins on Monday. In particular, there’s the abortion issue which strongly favors Biden, as well as Trump’s inability to even try to reach out to Nikki Haley’s supporters and united the GOP. And, of course, there’s the candidate himself who is often his own worst enemy.

Still, the latest New York Times/Siena poll shows the American electorate views Trump more favorably than Biden, which is unfathomable and deeply dispiriting. I think we have to get to work on this campaign doing what we can each do individually to help. It’s therapeutic if nothing else, and I do think that Biden will ultimately be a lot stronger in the end because his base will come home. He has to do what he can to make sure it does.