As I write this, the U.S. House of Representatives is in the process of overwhelmingly passing the supplemental military and foreign aid bill to Israel, Ukraine, and the Far East despite vociferous opposition from the Putin-friendly far right. The bill, which includes substantial humanitarian aid for Gaza, is also opposed by many on the left who object to militarily supporting Israel at this time. There are principled reasons to oppose the bill, or to support two-thirds of it but not the rest. But the opposition is no more than a medium-sized bipartisan minority. There will be a much larger bipartisan majority in favor it, and in those terms this bill is historic.

It reached the floor with all the Democrats on the House Rules Committee ruling in favor of the rule, while three Republicans were opposed. The only other time I can think of something like this happening was over avoiding the debt ceiling. But that was a strictly performative opposition on Republicans’ part. They’ve done a lot of that recently, killing their own Speaker’s rules and forcing Mike Johnson to either withdraw proposed legislation or pass it with a two-thirds majority under a suspension of the rules. In this case, the Dems provided the needed votes in committee on a substantive policy bill, and that’s just completely abnormal.

Now that Johnson has crossed the Rubicon on this, he is no longer the leader of the Republicans in the House but rather the leader of a bipartisan coalition that will be required to save his job when Republicans opponents almost undoubtedly move to oust him from power with a motion to vacate the Speaker’s chair.

When asked whether he would save Johnson from such a motion, Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries sounded positive but didn’t make a commitment. Rather, he said that those discussions would come up soon. The Democrats could let Johnson fall just as they let McCarthy fall, but it seems clear that they will be willing to cut a deal with Johnson if Johnson is amenable to the idea.

“It does seem to me,” Mr. Jeffries said, “based on informal conversations, that were Speaker Johnson to do the right thing relative to meeting the significant national security needs of the American people by putting it on the floor for an up-or-down vote, there will be a reasonable number of people in the House Democratic Caucus who will take the position that he should not fall as a result.”

…“Speaker Mike Johnson is a deeply principled conservative, and members of the Democratic caucus strongly disagree with many of his positions. But to date, when he’s made a promise — publicly or privately — he’s kept it.”

But this would not come for free. The Democrats would want some kind of formal power-sharing agreement, I believe, although their demands could be modest. Democratic congressmen Jim Himes of Connecticut is already talking about the road ahead, “I’m delighted, because I never imagined that in the minority I might be part of a constructive, forward moving, bipartisan coalition.” Democrat Seth Moulton has been more explicit:

“We’re just not going to go and bail out one of the most conservative Republican speakers in American history. But what Kevin McCarthy failed to do is even entertain a conversation to try to make a deal. Democrats were ready to deal. Kevin McCarthy refused to,” said Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass. “If Speaker Johnson cares about doing the right thing as well as keeping his job, then he ought to make a deal with Democrats.”

Johnson is up against it. He absolutely cannot win a motion to vacate with just Republican votes, and while the Democrats are willing to save his job, allowing them to do so would probably be untenable if it means giving away some of the Republicans’ power. The problem is that he can’t really operate simultaneously as the leader of the House Republican caucus and the leader of a bipartisan coalition that includes Democratic committee chairs or leadership positions, and even lesser concessions would disrupt his role as top strategist for the Republicans. This seems especially true in an election year with Donald Trump on the ballot.  The House GOP simply can’t tolerate a situation where their leader is so far in cahoots with the House Democrats, Senate Democrats and the White House.

This is why I conclude Johnson will not offer what the Democrats demand, and he will either resign or be voted out.

But the Republicans don’t have any leverage. It’s not clear that any Republican in the House can win the Speaker’s gavel without Democratic votes, and if they can’t settle on a Speaker, pretty soon a bipartisan coalition will emerge to elect one of their own. I doubt that would be Jeffries. More likely it would be a Republican helped over the line by a handful of Republicans who aren’t willing to let the House go without a Speaker indefinitely. They might opt out of sheer desperation on a temporary Speaker, but it’s not obvious that a temporary Speaker will have the authority run the House for any period of time.

Maybe Johnson won’t face a motion to vacate in the end, but that’s hard to predict at the moment since the will and the votes to remove him appear present in the aftermath of the foreign aid bill passing with Democrats supporting the rule.

Should be interesting to watch. I told you it would come to this, beginning right after the 2022 midterm results were known.