I feel strangely detached about Donald Trump’s selection of running mate. Reporting from NBC News indicates the short list is down to North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Ohio U.S. Senator J.D. Vance, and Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio. There may still be a tiny pulse for upstate New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik and South Carolina U.S. Senator Tim Scott, but their chances are clearly fading.
The first thing that needs to be said about this list is that it is constitutionally impermissible for Trump and Rubio to form a ticket if they are both residents of the same state, which they clearly are as they both live, vote and pay taxes in Florida. The campaign clearly recognizes the hurdle this presents, but the article is of two minds about it. On the one hand, it quotes a Florida Republican operative saying, “if the residency thing was not an issue, I’m fairly certain Marco would be the guy.” On the other, it quotes “a source who has spoken with Trump about the running mate search” saying “the residency factor is an issue that is easy to fix as long as Rubio relocates.”
This forced me to look up the inhabitancy requirements for a U.S. Senator and it turns out that they must be a resident of the state they seek to represent at the time of the election, but not thereafter. So Rubio can move away from Florida without having to surrender his seat in the Senate, but he would have to reestablish residency to seek a new term. Any efforts he might make to establish residency in a new state between now and November would be challenged in court, but the Supreme Court is basically an arm of the Republican Party at this point, and they might rule in Rubio’s favor.
One thing about this list I’ll note at the outset because of the childish way that Trump thinks is that so many of the finalists, like Mike Pence and Trump, have five-letter last names. There was a symmetry to the Trump-Pence yard signs and bumper stickers and the same would be true of Trump-Vance, Trump-Rubio, and Trump-Scott. Would Trump seriously allow himself to outshined by Trump-Stefanik signage? Would he feel some kind of emasculating letter-envy with Trump-Burgum?
Consider the superficial reason he likes Burgum: “he has the central casting appearance of a dashing businessman-turned-governor” but his “struggle to break through in the primaries suggests he wouldn’t be a likely heir apparent who draws attention.” Don’t think the length of his running mate’s name couldn’t be a deciding factor for Trump.
One reason I’ve put so little thought into who Trump will choose is that I don’t see it as likely to make any difference. The election will be a yes or no on Trump. But in close elections, small factors have the power to be decisive. At least in the case of Rubio and Vance, they’d potentially help solidify Trump’s position in their respective states. But Trump is already heavily favored to win in Florida and Ohio. He isn’t winning in New York, and if he needs a boost to win in North Dakota then his goose is already cooked. I just don’t see any direct influence on outcomes here.
As for identity politics, Stefanik might soften Trump’s problem with women, Rubio might provide a boost with Latinos and Scott with Blacks, but I think this is mostly wishful thinking. And his base of fundamentalist Christian white nationalists don’t want a woman or minority on the ticket, so if we’re talking about incremental differences, these factors could cancel each other out.
The base will love Vance, and they’ll tolerate Burgum, so then the choice comes down to Trump’s idiosyncratic preferences. Whose name looks better on a sign? Who looks better on television? Who is more likely to break laws if Trump asks them to? Who does he want to talk to from time to time?
I can’t know the answers to these questions, although I will note that Vance is on the record saying some nasty things about Trump before he sold his soul to the MAGA movement. That’s why Burgum makes a lot of sense, presuming that, unlike Pence, he can be trusted to flush the Constitution on demand.
None of these candidates strike fear in my heart. Vance would be the worst simply because choosing him would double down on white nationalism. As veteran senators, Scott and Rubio have dealt in a serious way with the agencies of the executive branch for long enough that they could serve as president without falling on their face. Maybe the same is true of Burgum, who has whatever limited relevant executive experience running North Dakota confers. Vance and Stefanik don’t strike me as experienced enough to be POTUS, and just like Trump and George W. Bush, they’d be handled by chiefs of staff and cabinet members.
I think trying to imagine any of these folks as president is the only angle that makes the choice interesting or potentially important.
