Assuming the polls are at least modestly accurate, the election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be decided in a handful of battleground states where the races appear extremely tight. Some of these contests could come down to recounts or be decided by 10,000 votes or less. That’s why almost all the political advertising is being aired in these states, and it’s why the candidates and their running mates have been spending almost all their time on the ground there. But in the homestretch, Trump plans on holding rallies in New York, Illinois, Colorado, and California, all of which are considered locks to vote for Harris.
Why?
They have their rationales. In the case of New York, Trump apparently is pining to hold a rally in Madison Square Garden. It could be no more complicated than that. On the whole, though, the idea is to campaign in places where Democrats have near complete control of government, and to highlight their supposed failures. Top among these is immigration. Insofar as this represents a coherent messaging strategy, it makes some sense. It does signal that there will no let up on racial polarization at Trump’s main theme.
A secondary consideration is that control of the House of Representatives could be decided by races in New York and California, but with the battleground states so tight, it seems like a luxury Trump cannot necessarily afford to be focused on helping downticket candidates. It smacks of hubris.
At this point in the campaign, people are already voting, and the primary value of rallies is help the get out the vote efforts. The more people they can get to vote early, the easier the GOTV tasks become, and little boosts of enthusiasm and local press coverage can help.
Maybe Trump doesn’t think he can squeeze much more juice out of these methods and so it’s better to just go for a nationwide messaging strategy. I expect, however, that the Harris campaign will feel good about every day Trump isn’t spending in a battleground state. They have an organizing advantage on the ground anyway, and perhaps they can use it to get the slight edge they’ll need.
